How big is big? How often is often? Characterizing Texas petroleum refining upset air emissions

This work examines the magnitude and frequency of Texas petroleum refineries upset air emissions over a 44-month period. Upset emissions occur during plant start-ups, shut-downs, maintenance, malfunctions and flaring incidents, and these emissions are typically exempt from regulation. These emissions contain a variety of chemicals, including benzene, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and butadiene. Unlike other states, Texas has detailed reporting requirements, regulations in place, and an extensive upset emissions database. A key scientific and public policy question is whether upset emissions have significant impacts on local air quality and public health. However, it is not possible to address this question without first understanding the magnitude and properties of upsets. We merge related databases to examine over 3,900 upset emission events and find that upset emissions are significant in both size and occurrence when compared to routine operation emissions. It is determined that these events are not random, being more likely to occur during the summer, in the morning, and early in the workweek. A regional analysis of Port Arthur suggests that upset emissions from co-located refineries are equivalent to having an additional refinery within the region. Because of uncertainties within the reporting process and an obvious underestimation by some refineries, there is a need for better tracking of upset emissions.     

A review of the public health impacts of unconventional natural gas development

The public health impact of hydraulic fracturing remains a high profile and controversial issue. While there has been a recent surge of published papers, it remains an under-researched area despite being possibly the most substantive change in energy production since the advent of the fossil fuel economy. We review the evidence of effects in five public health domains with a particular focus on the UK: exposure, health, socio-economic, climate change and seismicity. While the latter would seem not to be of significance for the UK, we conclude that serious gaps in our understanding of the other potential impacts persist together with some concerning signals in the literature and legitimate uncertainties derived from first principles. There is a fundamental requirement for high-quality epidemiological research incorporating real exposure measures, improved understanding of methane leakage throughout the process, and a rigorous analysis of the UK social and economic impacts. In the absence of such intelligence, we consider it prudent to incentivise further research and delay any proposed developments in the UK. Recognising the political realities of the planning and permitting process, we make a series of recommendations to protect public health in the event of hydraulic fracturing being approved in the UK.     

Behavioral externalities in natural resource production possibility frontiers: integrating biology and economics to model human-wildlife interactions

Production possibility modeling has been applied to a variety of wildlife management issues. Although it has seen only limited employment in modeling human-wildlife output decisions, it can be expected that the theory's use in this area will increase as human interactions with and impacts on wildlife become more frequent. At present, most models applying production possibility theory to wildlife production can be characterized in that wildlife output quantities are determined by physically quantifiable functions representing rivalrous resources. When the theory is applied to human-wildlife interactions, it may not be sufficient to model the production tradeoffs using only physical constraints. As wildlife are known to respond to human presence, it could be expected that human activity may appear in wildlife production functions as an externality. Behavioral externalities are revealed by an output's response to the presence of another output and can result in a loss of concavity of the production possibilities frontier. Ignoring the potential of a behavioral externality can result in an unexpected and inefficient output allocation that may compromise a wildlife population's well-being. Behavioral externalities can be included in PPF models in a number of ways, including the use of data or cumulative effects modeling. While identifying that behavioral externalities exist and incorporating them into a model is important, correctly interpreting their implications will be critical to improve the efficiency of natural resource management. Behavioral externalities may cause a loss of concavity anywhere along a PPF that may compel managerial decisions that are inconsistent with multiple use doctrines. Convex PPFs may result when wildlife species are extremely sensitive to any level of human activity. It may be possible to improve the PPF's concavity by reducing the strength of the behavioral effect. Any change in the PPF that increases the convexity of the production set could offer natural resource managers additional opportunities to optimally provide multiple natural resource outputs. Techniques that minimize the effect could focus on either the human or wildlife outputs, or both. Methods could focus on reducing the externality itself through changing the production of the offending output or to reduce the impact of the externality through a change in the production of the affected output. Managers unfamiliar with PPF modeling can employ PPF thinking by recognizing that every decision involves tradeoffs and that sometimes these tradeoffs are unnecessary negative impacts that could be mitigated without compromising the resource.     

The "unintended pedestrian" on expressways

OBJECTIVE: To explore the epidemiology of pedestrian deaths in Dallas County, Texas, and to compare factors associated with pedestrian deaths on expressways versus those that occurred on other roadways. METHODS: We studied all pedestrian deaths among persons 15 years of age or older in Dallas County, Texas, from 1997 to 2004 by linking data from Medical Examiner's office, the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, and local police records. Univariate and multivariate analysis compared various factors associated with death on an expressway. RESULTS: Among 437 pedestrian deaths who were 15 years of age or older, 197 (45%) occurred on expressways; the proportion that occurred on expressways was highest among 15- to 29-year-olds (65%) and was lower with advancing age group (p < 0.01, chi square for trend). At least 36% of these expressway-related pedestrian deaths were known to have been "unintended pedestrians," who had exited a vehicle after being on the roadway, compared with 11% of pedestrian deaths on surface streets (OR 4.6, 95% CI, 2.7-8.1), and this was also highest among younger age groups. Pedestrian deaths on an expressway, compared with deaths on surface streets, remained strongly associated with having been an "unintended pedestrian" (OR 6.2, 95% CI, 3.1-14.0), after controlling for several other variables, including age, sex, race, nighttime of crash, and alcohol involvement. CONCLUSIONS: Expressways are the predominant site of fatal pedestrian crashes among young adults in this urban area. Since many of these deaths were "unintended pedestrians," procedures for management of occupants of disabled vehicles on expressways could have a large impact on pedestrian deaths in young adults.     

Formulation of a soil-pesticide transport model based on a compartmental approach

A semianalytical soil-pesticide transport model is formulated based on a compartmental approach to determine spatial and temporal variations of pesticide residues across a soil profile. The compartmental model is implemented by drawing an analogy between a series of continuous-flow stirred tank reactors and a soil horizon that consists of multiple perfectly mixed compartments. The analogy is strengthened by exploiting a relation between the compartment series and the conventional convective-dispersive equation (CDE) for vertical transport in the soil. Consequently, the number of compartments in the model formulation is not free, but dictated as a function of transport parameters. The model formulation allows consideration of arbitrary boundary value specifications and also, for some cases, spatially varying initial concentration profiles. Sorption kinetics is represented via a two-site model that involves a linear sorption isotherm and a first-order irreversible sorption or a radial diffusive penetrating model. For these three cases, analysis of the compartmental model allows the resultant concentration profiles to be expressed in terms of the Poisson distribution. When a nonlinear kinetic sorption model is used to simulate the sorption processes, an analytical solution is not found and a numerical approach is required.     

Origins and mechanisms leading to aneuploidy in human eggs

The gain or loss of a chromosome—or aneuploidy—acts as one of the major triggers for infertility and pregnancy loss in humans. These chromosomal abnormalities affect more than 40% of eggs in women at both ends of the age spectrum, that is, young girls as well as women of advancing maternal age. Recent studies in human oocytes and embryos using genomics, cytogenetics, and in silico modeling all provide new insight into the rates and potential genetic and cellular factors associated with aneuploidy at varying stages of development. Here, we review recent studies that are shedding light on potential molecular mechanisms of chromosome missegregation in oocytes and embryos across the entire female reproductive life span.     

Prenatal diagnosis of renal agenesis in a twin gestation

Bilateral renal agenesis is a lethal congenital anomaly. It appears to be transmitted in a polygenic pattern. The prenatal ultrasound findings consist of severe oligohydramnios, absence of the fetal bladder, and failure to identify fetal kidneys. Twin gestations with renal agenesis have been described in the paediatric literature. We detail a case of a patient with two prior affected pregnancies with bilateral renal agenesis. Her latest pregnancy was diagnosed prenatally, with one fetus with bilateral and the other fetus with unilateral renal agenesis. The ultrasound findings should be differentiated from the stuck twin phenomenon.