An Aegean island earthquake protection strategy: an integrated analysis and policy methodology

Viewing an insular setting as a distinct risk environment, an effort is made here to develop a methodology for identifying core issues related to earthquake risk and disaster protection policy, adjusted to the 'specificities' of such a context. The methodology's point of departure is the inherent condition of the 'island operating as a closed system', requiring an attempt to assess and optimise local capacity (social, political, economic, institutional and technical) to deal with an earthquake emergency. The island is then treated as an 'open system', implying that in the event of a disaster, it should be able to maximise its ability to receive and distribute external aid and to manage effectively population evacuation and inflows/outflows of aid resources. Hence, an appropriate strategic policy approach could be developed by integrating the 'open' and 'closed' system components of an island setting. Three islands from the Aegean Archipelagos in Greece--Chios, Kos and Nissyros--serve as case study areas.     

Tree growth inference and prediction from diameter censuses and ring widths.

Estimation of tree growth is based on sparse observations of tree diameter, ring widths, or increments read from a dendrometer. From annual measurements on a few trees (e.g., increment cores) or sporadic measurements from many trees (e.g., diameter censuses on mapped plots), relationships with resources, tree size, and climate are extrapolated to whole stands. There has been no way to formally integrate different types of data and problems of estimation that result from (1) multiple sources of observation error, which frequently result in impossible estimates of negative growth, (2) the fact that data are typically sparse (a few trees or a few years), whereas inference is needed broadly (many trees over many years), (3) the fact that some unknown fraction of the variance is shared across the population, and (4) the fact that growth rates of trees within competing stands are not independent. We develop a hierarchical Bayes state space model for tree growth that addresses all of these challenges, allowing for formal inference that is consistent with the available data and the assumption that growth is nonnegative. Prediction follows directly, incorporating the full uncertainty from inference with scenarios for "filling the gaps" for past growth rates and for future conditions affecting growth. An example involving multiple species and multiple stands with tree-ring data and up to 14 years of tree census data illustrates how different levels of information at the tree and stand level contribute to inference and prediction.     

Adapting to urban challenges in the Amazon: flood risk and infrastructure deficiencies in Belém,Brazil

Regional Environmental Change - Sustainable urban infrastructure transition is perhaps the biggest challenge confronting cities in the global south in a time of climate change. Fast-growing cities...     

Multiyear monitoring of survival following mitigation-driven translocation of a long-lived threatened reptile

Translocation is used by managers to mitigate the negative impacts of development on species. Moving individuals to a new location is challenging, and many translocation attempts have failed. Robust, posttranslocation monitoring is therefore important for evaluating effects of translocation on target species. We evaluated the efficacy of a translocation designed to mitigate the effects of a utility-scale solar energy project on the U.S. federally listed Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii). The species is a long-lived reptile threatened by a variety of factors, including habitat loss due to renewable energy development in the Mojave Desert and portions of the Colorado Desert in southern California (southwestern United States). We translocated 58 individual tortoises away from the project's construction site and intensively monitored them over 5 years (2012–2017). We monitored these individuals and tortoises located in the translocation release area (resident tortoises; n = 112) and control tortoises (n = 149) in a nearby location. We used our tortoise encounter data and known-fate survival models to estimate annual and cumulative survival. Translocated tortoises in each of 2 size classes (120–160 mm, >160 mm) did not survive at lower rates than resident and control tortoises over the study period. For models with different sets of biotic and abiotic covariates, annual and cumulative estimates of survival were always >0.87 and >0.56, respectively. Larger tortoises tended to have higher survival, but translocated tortoises were not differentially affected by the covariates used to model variation in survival. Based on these findings, our translocation design and study protocols could inform other translocation projects for desert species. Our case study highlights the benefits of combining rigorous scientific monitoring with well-designed, mitigation-driven management actions to reduce the negative effects of development on species of conservation concern.     

Natural concentrations and reference values of heavy metals in sedimentary soils in the Brazilian Amazon

The soils of the Brazilian Amazon exhibit large geochemical diversity reflecting the different soil formation processes in an area covering 49% of the Brazilian territory. Soil contamination by heavy metals is one of the threats to the sustainability of this Biome but establishing quality reference values (QRVs) for the region is a challenging owing to the immense territorial area of the Amazon. This study aimed to determine the natural background of heavy metals in soils from the southwestern Brazilian Amazon in order to propose QRVs for Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn for alluvial sedimentary soils. One hundred and twenty-eight soil samples were collected at a depth of 0.0–0.2 m in sites with minimal anthropogenic interference. Soil sample digestion was based on the EPA 3051A method and metal concentrations were determined by ICP-OES. QRVs calculated for the southwestern Brazilian Amazon are among the lowest recorded in Brazil (mg kg^?1): Ba (16.5), Cd (0.1), Cr (6.9), Cu (2.8), Fe (15.4), Mn (13.4), Ni (1.7), Pb (4.4), Sb (0.9), and Zn (5.7). The low metal concentration is likely a result of the sedimentary origin of the soils. The results of this study can serve as a basis for defining public policies to investigate the environmental impacts resulting from changes in land use in areas of the Brazilian Amazon.     

Pyrolysis of polypropylene waste using sulfonated carbon catalyst synthesized from sugarcane bagasse

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - In this study, thermal and catalytic pyrolysis of polypropylene waste (PP) was investigated using a batch reactor in the temperature range...     

Systems-based accident analysis methods: A comparison of Accimap, HFACS, and STAMP

Three accident causation models, each with their own associated approach to accident analysis, currently dominate the human factors literature. Although the models are in general agreement that accidents represent a complex, systems phenomenon, the subsequent analysis methods prescribed are very different. This paper presents a case study-based comparison of the three methods: Accimap, HFACS and STAMP. Each was used independently by separate analysts to analyse the recent Mangatepopo gorge tragedy in which six students and their teacher drowned while participating in a led gorge walking activity. The outputs were then compared and contrasted, revealing significant differences across the three methods. These differences are discussed in detail, and the implications for accident analysis are articulated. In conclusion, a modified version of the Accimap method, incorporating domain specific taxonomies of failure modes, is recommended for future accident analysis efforts.     

Lessons from the 2006 Louisiana health and population survey

The 2005 hurricane season caused extensive damage and induced a mass migration of approximately 1.1 million people from southern Louisiana in the United States. Current and accurate estimates of population size and demographics and an assessment of the critical needs for public services were required to guide recovery efforts. Since forecasts using pre-hurricane data may produce inaccurate estimates of the post-hurricane population, a household survey in 18 hurricane-affected parishes was conducted to provide timely and credible information on the size of these populations, their demographics and their condition. This paper describes the methods used, the challenges encountered, and the key factors for successful implementation. This post-disaster survey was unique because it identified the needs of the people in the affected parishes and quantified the number of people with these needs. Consequently, this survey established new population and health indicator baselines that otherwise would have not been available to guide the relief and recovery efforts in southern Louisiana.     

Comparison of USEPA digestion methods to heavy metals in soil samples

The use of appropriate analytical methods is of paramount importance for risk assessment and monitoring of potentially toxic metals in soils. In this sense, the objective of this study was to compare the effectiveness of two sample digestion methods, recommended by the Brazilian legislation for the management of contaminated areas (CONAMA 2009), aiming at the determination of environmentally available metal concentrations (USEPA 3050B, USEPA 3051A), as well as a total digestion method (USEPA 3052). Samples from 10 classes of soils were analyzed for Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Ni, and Hg. The results showed that the USEPA method 3051A is more efficient than the USEPA method 3050B in the extraction of levels considered environmentally available of Zn, Cu, Cd, Pb, and Ni. Besides providing a higher recovery of these elements, the method requires shorter digestion time, lower consumption of acids, and reduced risk of contamination. The USEPA method 3051A showed greater efficiency in Hg extraction in soils with higher clay content. Therefore, it is suitable for situations where a wide range of soils with different mineralogical characteristics are analyzed or in order to decrease the losses due to volatilization of the element in open systems.     

Isolation and characterization of a Pseudomonas aeruginosa from a virgin Brazilian Amazon region with potential to degrade atrazine

The use of pesticides to increase agricultural production can result in the contamination of the environment, causing changes in the genetic structure of organisms and in the loss of biodiversity. This practice is also inducing changes in the rainforest ecosystem. In this work, a Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from a preservation soil area of the Brazilian Amazon Forest, without usage of any pesticide, was evaluated for its potential to degrade atrazine. This isolate presented all responsible genes (atzA, atzB, atzC, atzD, atzE, and atzF) for atrazine mineralization and demonstrated capacity to use atrazine as a nitrogen source, having achieved a reduction of 44 % of the initial concentration of atrazine after 24 h. These results confirm gene dispersion and/or a possible contamination of the area with the herbicide, which reinforces global concern of the increase and intensive use of pesticides worldwide.