Screen-positive rate in cell-free DNA screening for microdeletion 22q11.2

Objective

To examine the impact of the fetal fraction (FF) on the screen-positive rate in screening for microdeletion 22q11.2.

Methods

This study is based on samples that were analyzed using the Harmony® Prenatal Test (Roche Inc). The study cohort comprised samples from women with singleton pregnancies who were at least 16 years old and at least at 11 weeks' gestation. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine significant covariates that carry an impact on the screen-positive rate.

Results

The study population consisted of 52,019 pregnancies, including 309 pregnancies with a high-risk result for microdeletion 22q11.2. Thus, the overall screen-positive rate was 0.59%. In the low-risk group, the FF was 10.1%, and in the high-risk group, it was 7.3%. Regression analysis indicated a strong correlation between the FF and the screen-positive rate. In the cases with an FF of <11.0%, the screen-positive rate was 0.92%, while it was 0.13% in the group with a higher FF.

Conclusion

The screen-positive rate depends on the FF. In order to keep the rate low, we recommend restricting the analysis to samples with a FF of 11% and more.     

A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.     

Territorial counter-singing in male sac-winged bats (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Saccopteryx bilineata</Emphasis>): low-frequency songs trigger a stronger response

In many animal species, individuals compete for resources but avoid escalated conflicts by threat displays, i.e. a mutual signalling behaviour that enables the opponents to predict the outcome of the conflict without the necessity of actual fighting. For example, territory holders may use acoustic signals to communicate not only their own identity and the borders of their territory but also their competitive quality, fighting ability and motivation. Here, we show that male sac-winged bats, Saccopteryx bilineata, adjust their vocal territorial displays according to the fundamental frequency of territorial songs of their opponents. In playback experiments with territorial males, low-frequency stimuli elicited a higher territorial song rate and length than high-frequency stimuli. Male S. bilineata that sing more often and with lower fundamental frequencies have been shown to sire more offspring than their competitors. Fundamental frequency of territorial songs, hence, may reveal male quality and, consequently, the resulting threat posed to competing males. We argue that this is reflected in the increased response of competitors to low-frequency territorial songs shown here. Such competitive signalling behaviour has been shown in a few mammal species like red deer and baboons but, thus far, not in bats. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

No net loss of what,for whom?: stakeholder perspectives to Biodiversity Offsetting in England

Market-based instruments (MBIs) have emerged as a popular approach to balance development and conservation objectives. However, their ability to accomplish this is often beset by poor implementation in practice. This is testament to a widening gap between the rate of policy development and implementation of MBIs and the maturity of research and evaluation on their design, and impact on affected stakeholders. Within this context, this paper examines multi-stakeholder perspectives to the adoption of Biodiversity Offsetting in England, an instrument designed to enable biodiversity losses in one place to be compensated through conservation improvements elsewhere. Analysis reveals issues associated with social and ecological compensation of biodiversity loss. Findings suggest that there is a need for a broader consideration of issues surrounding distributive justice, access to nature and the status of ownership over sites of common heritage when accounting for biodiversity loss and its compensation. This message is salient to both the study context as well as the burgeoning international practice of Biodiversity Offsetting.     

The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.     

Low aggression levels and unbiased sex ratios in a prey-rich environment: no evidence of siblicide in Ngorongoro spotted hyenas (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crocuta crocuta</Emphasis>)

Avian models of facultative siblicide predict that rates of sibling aggression and the incidence of siblicide should be lower in prey-rich than prey-poor environments, and that siblicide should only occur when fitness benefits outweigh costs. We tested these predictions by comparing data from spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) twin litters in the Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania, a habitat with a high density of resident prey (176 animals/km²) with similar data from the adjacent Serengeti National Park where density of resident prey is low (3.3 animals/km²). As predicted, rates of sibling aggression in Crater twin litters were substantially lower than those among twin siblings in the Serengeti. There was no evidence of siblicide in the Crater, in contrast to the Serengeti, where facultative siblicide occurs frequently. The growth rate of Crater cubs in singleton litters was similar to that of cubs in twin litters, whereas the growth rate of Serengeti singletons was higher than that of cubs in twin litters. Thus despotic behavior by dominant Crater cubs was unlikely to provide fitness benefits, while dominant Serengeti cubs that eliminated their sibling benefited from increased growth and enhanced survival. Previous studies have demonstrated biases in the sex-composition of hyena litters due to facultative siblicide. No such biases were apparent in Crater litters. Our results provide strong evidence that levels of sibling aggression in spotted hyenas are adjusted in an adaptive manner, and that siblicide is facultative and resource dependent. Our results do not support the idea of pre-natal manipulation of offspring sex by female spotted hyenas in response to changes in resource abundance.     

Persistent organic pollutants in mangrove food webs in Singapore

In this study, persistent organic pollutants were quantified in sediments, subsurface seawater, sea-surface microlayer and twenty-four biota species collected at two separate mangrove habitats in Singapore. Data confirmed the ubiquity of POPs, including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), in the marine environment of Singapore. A biomagnification phenomenon was observed amongst the species collected and analysed from both mangrove sites studied. Thunder crabs and fish displayed the highest POP levels. Congener profiles of PBDEs varied amongst mangrove biota species and suggested different metabolic pathways exist for flame retardants. Similarly, crab species showed an ability to metabolize chlordane insecticide.     

Organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls and polybrominated diphenyl ethers in Singapore's coastal marine sediments

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are ubiquitous pollutants in the marine environment, particular in coastal areas affected by industry and shipping traffic. POPs are known for their recalcitrance and toxicity in the environment, and there is increasing concern over their global distribution and impact upon wildlife. Marine surface sediment samples taken within 6 km of the coastline of Singapore were analyzed to determine prevailing concentrations of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Total PCB concentrations varied widely from 1.4 to 329.6 ng/g (average 73.9 ng/g), where high concentrations were detected at sample locations closest to industrial areas with intensive shipping traffic. Total DDT concentrations ranged from 2.2 to 11.9 ng/g (average 6.7 ng/g) and were lower than the concentration range of 3.3-46.2 ng/g measured for total HCH (average 18.1 ng/g). Ratios of DDT/(DDE+DDD) in sediments do not indicate recent inputs of DDT into Singapore's marine environment, but high concentrations of alpha-HCH and gamma-HCH show evidence for the usage of HCHs in Southeast Asia. Peak concentrations of cis- and trans-Chlordane were 10 ng/g. Among the PBDE congeners BDE 47, 99, and 100 only BDE 47 could be detected at a range of 3.4-13.8 ng/g (average 6.2 ng/g). The levels of OCPs, PCBs and PBDEs were compared to available data for other countries in Asia, and indicated relatively moderate levels of contamination. Peak concentrations of PCBs, HCH isomers, Chlordane, Heptachlor, Heptachlor epoxide and Dieldrin have the potential to induce ecotoxicological impacts based on levels specified in the sediment quality standards of the USEPA and Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment.