A Heuristic Method for Determining Changes of Source Loads to Comply with Water Quality Limits in Catchments

A common land and water management task is to determine where and by how much source loadings need to change to meet water quality limits in receiving environments. This paper addresses the problem of quantifying changes in loading when limits are specified in many locations in a large and spatially heterogeneous catchment, accounting for cumulative downstream impacts. Current approaches to this problem tend to use either scenario analysis or optimization, which suffer from difficulties of generating scenarios that meet the limits, or high complexity of optimization approaches. In contrast, we present a novel method in which simple catchment models, load limits, upstream/downstream spatial relationships and spatial allocation rules are combined to arrive at source load changes. The process iteratively establishes the critical location (river segment or lake) where the limits are most constraining, and then adjusts sources upstream of the critical location to meet the limit at that location. The method is demonstrated with application to New Zealand (268,000 km2) for nutrients and the microbial indicator E. coli, which was conducted to support policy development regarding water quality limits. The model provided useful insights, such as a source load excess (the need for source load reduction) even after mitigation measures are introduced in order to comply with E. coli limits. On the other hand, there was headroom (ability to increase source loading) for nutrients. The method enables assessment of the necessary source load reductions to achieve water quality limits over broad areas such as large catchments or whole regions.     

Group-specific dialects and geographical variation in coda repertoire in South Pacific sperm whales

Codas, which are patterned series of clicks, were recorded from female and immature sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) in a number of locations around the South Pacific Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea. Using K-means cluster analysis, 3,644 codas were categorized based on the number of clicks and their patterning. There were 30 resulting types of coda. The numbers of codas of the different types recorded were used to construct repertoires for each recording session, day, group of whales, place, area, and ocean. Strong group-specific dialects, which seem to persist over periods of years, were apparent, overlaid on weaker geographical variation. Significant differences in repertoire were found between the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean. Sperm whales now join killer whales (Orcinus orca) as the only cetacean species in which dialects (differences in vocal repertoire among neighboring, potentially interacting groups) have been found. Received: 13 June 1996 / Accepted after revision: 19 January 1997     

The effect of urban quality improvements on economic activity

This paper is concerned with the link between urban quality improvements and economic activity. A key question is whether improvements in the urban environment which might be achieved, for instance, through pedestrianisation, will affect business location choices - for example, are office or retail businesses particularly keen to locate in more pleasant urban places? The paper outlines the current state of development of the literature with respect to the influence of urban quality on economic activity, and proposes a framework for forecasting economic impacts based on three communities of reference: customers, employees, and the businesses themselves. The results from original modelling of a case study area in Manchester, England are reported and suggest that the positive uplifts that may be expected from environmental improvement programmes may well be on a scale which is significant. The research is obviously important for the urban regeneration and renaissance agendas which posit attractive and well-designed environments as a way to create the right conditions for promoting economic growth.     

The similarity solution for turbulent mixing of two-layer stratified fluid

Experiments are reviewed in which a two-layer salt-stratified tank of water was mixed by turbulence. The density profile began as a single step and evolved to a smooth mixed profile. The turbulence was generated by many excursions of a horizontally moving vertical rod with Richardson number Ri >  0.9 and Reynolds Number Re  >  600. There was almost perfect collapse of all the profiles to one universal profile as a function of a similarity variable. We develop a theoretical model for a simple mixing law with a buoyancy flux that is a function of internal Richardson number Rii. A similarity equation is found. A flux law that increases with small Rii and decreases with large Rii is considered next. Since no analytical solution is known, the similarity concept is tested by numerically integrating the equations in space and time. With buoyancy flux monotonically increasing with internal Richardson number, the similarity approach is valid for a profile starting from a slightly smoothed step. However, a shock forms for a mixing law with higher initial Rii (so that buoyancy flux decreases with Richardson number) and the similarity approach is invalid for those initial conditions.     

Modified Weibull multi-state models for the analysis of animal carcinogenicity data

The Peto test is the standard method of analysis used in carcinogenicity studies to compare tumor incidence in groups of animals. It assumes that tumors are either instantly fatal or have no effect on mortality and requires a judgement of the lethality of each tumor. To avoid this requirement, parametric multi-state models have been proposed. In addition these allow estimation of tumor onset and mortality rates. This paper considers two such models and presents a modification. It is shown that the modified models provide a better fit to carcinogenicity data and simulated data are used to show that the modified models provide a modest increase in test power relative to the Peto test.