Robust graphical methods for diagnosing trend in irregularly spaced water quality time series

Graphical methods can play an important role in the reliable assessment of trends in typically ill behaved river quality data series both as diagnostic tools and as visual corroborative evidence when assumptions required for formal statistical tests are not met. Robust, graphically-oriented trend diagnosis procedures are presented for data series characterized by nonnormal populations, uneven time spacing, nonmonotonic trend and other factors which can create serious problems for standard parametric time series methods. Cleveland's robust locally weighted regression (RLWR) developed for investigating nonlinearity in x-y scatterplots is adapted as a robust/resistant smoothing filter for the analysis of irregular time series comprising quantitative observations. Low powered RLWR trend lines reveal temporally local phenomena, e.g. abrupt jumps (often associated with point source impacts) and periodicities, while higher powered RLWR yields smooth lines characterizing medium and longer term trends. Simple variants of Tukey smoothing concepts are developed for series with censored observations. Applications to Ontario river quality series reveal that graphical evidence is frequently sufficient to obviate the need for formal trend testing. The methods are generally applicable to most time series.     

Information needs for marine pollution studies

Information needed for the resolution of environmental problems is a commodity with an economic value. The minimum necessary information implies minimal costs. The formulation of the information is considered for the case of biocides that can disrupt marine ecosystems.     

Relevance of radiation compensation litigation to compensation for toxic exposures

Several recent court decisions add to the growing body of law concerning the responsibility of Government in radiation matters and the quantum of proof needed to show causation between radiation exposures and certain types of cancer and leukemia. The courts have also been addressing a wide range of compensation claims for exposures to toxic chemicals with demonstration of causation being a particularly difficult task. Meanwhile, the Congress has been attempting to legislate a far reaching administrative and judicial framework for compensating toxic victims, including an easing of burden-of-proof requirements for demonstrating causation and a broadening of the basis for admissibility of scientific evidence. Drawing parallels between radiation and toxic exposure problems can be both instructive and misleading. Some of the technical issues are quite similar, including the importance of person-specific exposure estimates and of epidemiological studies. However, the uncertainties associated with toxic exposures are usually far greater, and the scientific data base for relating exposures and effects is much more uncertain.     

Soil fauna and soil microflora as possible indicators of soil pollution

Research on biological indicators of soil pollution is hampered by soil variability and temporal and spatial fluctuations of numbers of soil animals. These characters on the other hand promote a high biological diversity in the soil. A high diversity combined with persistent soil pollutants increases the chance to select good indicators. However research on these topics is still limited. Examples of specific indicators are the changed arthropod species patterns due to pesticide influence and the changed soil enzyme activity under the influence of specific heavy metals. Another approach is to look for organisms that give a general indication of soil pollution. In this respect the earthworm species Allolobophora caliginosa proved to be sensitive for different types of manure especially pig manure with copper, for sewage sludge, for municipal waste compost and for fly ash. A third way of indication is by organisms accumulating pollutants. For some heavy metals (Cd, Zn), earthworms are very efficient accumulators. More research is needed especially on the specific relation between biological responses and abiotic soil characteristics.     

Dose-time-response functions for toxic chemicals

In many situations, the effect of a toxic chemical on a biological system depends on both the intensity and the duration of exposure. The dependence on the time dimension can be the expression of a range of processes including the physical accumulation of toxic chemicals or their metabolites and the functional accumulation of damage. Measures and functions that have been used to describe this dependence are reviewed.Some of these functions are compared through a case study of the neurotoxicity of methylmercury. Use is made of data that indicates a dependency between the blood concentration at which monkeys were exposed and the length of time before damage was detected. Several exposure functions are fitted to these data and their appropriateness is compared. Using the most appropriate function, an exposure-response relationship is developed using probit analysis. An alternative data analysis procedure is also investigated. The apparent threshold after a 100 day exposure is estimated to be greater by a factor of 3–5 compared to the threshold for chronic exposure. Applying this factor to man, the blood concentration threshold for chronic exposure is estimated to be 40–170 ppb, a finding consistent with recent reports of neurological damage in humans exposed below the generally accepted threshold.     

Problems of correlation of global and local monitoring of air pollution

1. The Air Polluttion Monitoring System has got a significant development of late, which is in direct relation with a considerable extention and improvement of the observation network in cities and industrial areas, with creation of a new network for assessing regional and global background of the atmosphere pollution, as well as with the wide involvement of meteorologists to monitoring organization.
2. While developing a new global monitoring system, it is necessary to take into account its relationship with the local monitoring within the region of air pollution sources, i.e. at the \lsimpact\rs level. The need in such an account is dictated first of all by the physics of pollutant spreading that states: changes in air pollution over large territories must be in a certain agreement with greater changes in the vicinity of emission sources. Methods applied in the global and local monitoring have also a number of common peculiarities. White organizing regional network for observations of the background pollution of the atmosphere twin stations (one of the pair of stations located outside the city boundaries in a small community, and the other, in the nearest city with the population of 200–400 thousand inhabitants) were established in the U.S.S.R. and in a number of socialist countries in Europe.
3. Implementation of the twin-station principles in the U.S.S.R. has contributed to data interpretation and representativity assessment as well as to correction of the station location. Observation results from the Soviet background stations and those abroad have been compared by now according to a number of indices.
4. The correlation of monitoring systems of various scales tells positively both on mutual improvement and completion of observational methods. The methods of obtaining integral characteristics of air pollution were used for the global monitoring, in particular spectral actinometric observations and chemical analysis of the precipitation composition. Now they find still wider employment. Thus methods of spectral actinometric measurements and data processing were used to estimate the degree of aerosol pollution of a number of industrial centres. The theory of solar radiation spreading and aerosol contents determination in urban atmosphere has also been developed. It is a generalization of an earlier developed theory, used to estimate global atmosphere pollution basing on actinometric data. The organization of precipitation collection and analysis on a network of stations around Leningrad and in Donbass area enables us to compare the admixture content in precipitations falling in industrial and agricultural areas.
5. A considerable increase of possibilities to measure microconcentrations of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and of a number of other pollutants is connected with the use of solid solvents for sampling. Their use will allow to avoid establishment of special laboratories at background stations and only send samples by post for their analysis in centralized laboratories.

They will also allow to considerably increase precision and accuracy of measurements. The international comparisons of methods of air pollution measurements on the background level allow to judge about the effiency of these methods.     

The eolian sand problems arising from desertification

Eolian (wind blown) sand constitutes a very serious problem to development in sandy desert lands and causes equally serious problems in lands that are undergoing desertification. In this paper, eolian sand movement due to bulk movement such as sand dune and ripple movement, sand drift by saltation, and sand storms by strong winds are discussed. Associated problems such as eolian sand encroachment on highways, farms, communities and industrial complexes are also discussed and workable solutions are offered. Solutions include chemical stabilization of the surface grains, fences to trap the blown sand and vegetation to prevent soil deflation. Vegetation is emphasized and recommended as the ultimate viable solution to combat desertification and eolian sand problems.     

Indoor concentrations of carbon monoxide in selected urban microenvironments

CO concentrations were measured in five kindergartens, one children's hospital and two homes for aged, practically without indoor sources, all situated in the city centre, for ten random days in winter and ten in summer. The indoor CO concentrations were the result of the distance from and the traffic density in the nearest street, of general pollution level, seasonal differences, day-to-day variations and daily cycle of air pollution, the vicinity of traffic having a dominant influence. Therefore location of institutions for sensitive population groups in old city centres within a block of houses seems to be a suitable solution as far as exposure to CO is concerned.Revised version of a paper presented as poster at the VIth World Congress on Air Quality, Paris 1983.     

Efficient search procedures for extreme pollutant values

Extreme pollutant values are of great interest in water quality monitoring because of their frequent toxicological significance. The principal barrier to the detection of these values, however, is the cost of extensive and comprehensive monitoring. This paper demonstrates an efficient method to determine the maximum sample measurement from a finite set of sequential samples without explicitly testing them all. It is assumed that the process of sample measurement is distinct from collection and has higher costs. It is further assumed that the measurements have high positive autocorrelation.A methodology is presented based on a common industrial testing procedure referred to as composite sampling—the physical pooling or compositing of a set of sequential samples before measurement. A method known as primary first order compositing (PFOC) was found to be superior to the traditional technique of random sampling, particularly if small composite sizes are utilized.The authors are, respectively, operations research analyst, Vancouver, B. C.; Associate Professor and Chairman, Policy Analysis Division, Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, University of British Columbia; and Associate Professor, Management Science Division, Faculty of Commerce, U.B.C.     

Determination of biomass burning emission factors: Methods and results

Biomass burning, in a broad sense, encompasses different burning practices, including open and confined burnings, and different types of vegetation. Emission factors of gaseous or particulate trace compounds are directly dependent both on the fuel type and the combustion process. Emission factors are generally calculated by stoichiometric considerations using the carbon mass balance method, applied either to combustion chamber experiments or to field experiments based on ground-level measurements or aircraft sampling in smoke plumes. There have been a number of experimental studies in the last 10 years to investigate wildfires in tropical, temperate, or boreal regions. This article presents an overview of measurement methods and experimental data on emission factors of reactive or radiatively active trace compounds, including trace gases and particles. It focuses on fires in tropical regions, that is, forest and savanna fires, agricultural burns, charcoal production, use of fuelwood, and charcoal combustion.