Sex, intimidation and severed limbs: the effect of simulated predator attack and limb autotomy on calling and emergence behaviour in the field cricket Gryllus bimaculatus

Crickets can autotomize a limb in order to evade predation; however, this autotomy compromises their escape speed and, therefore, their ability to avoid subsequent predation events. We recorded two measures of predator-avoidance behaviour in field crickets (Gryllus bimaculatus) exposed to varying levels of predation threat, with the most extreme level leading to autotomy of a limb. Our first measure of caution was time to emergence from cover, which was affected by perceived predation treatment, with both autotomized males and females being significantly more cautious than intact individuals. For males (but not females), the presence of a calling conspecific encouraged earlier emergence. Our second measure of caution was alteration of male calling behaviour. Autotomized males remained silent for significantly longer time after disturbance than intact males, but there was no difference in call rate once they had resumed calling, suggesting that behavioural changes were not merely a result of injury response but a controlled modification of behaviour as a result of autotomy. These data suggest that autotomy in field crickets results in altered calling behaviour, which was not significantly altered with different acoustic environments.     

A Bayesian strategy for combining predictions from empirical and process-based models

We present a strategy for using an empirical forest growth model to reduce uncertainty in predictions made with a physiological process-based forest ecosystem model. The uncertainty reduction is carried out via Bayesian melding, in which information from prior knowledge and a deterministic computer model is conditioned on a likelihood function. We used predictions from an empirical forest growth model G-HAT in place of field observations of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in a deciduous temperate forest ecosystem. Using Bayesian melding, priors for the inputs of the process-based forest ecosystem PnET-II were propagated through the model, and likelihoods for the PnET-II output ANPP were calculated using the G-HAT predictions. Posterior distributions for ANPP and many PnET-II inputs obtained using the G-HAT predictions largely matched posteriors obtained using field data. Since empirical growth models are often more readily available than extensive field data sets, the method represents a potential gain in efficiency for reducing the uncertainty of process-based model predictions when reliable empirical models are available but high-quality data are not.     

Independent effects of fragmentation on forest songbirds: an organism-based approach.

The degree to which spatial patterns influence the dynamics and distribution of populations is a central question in ecology. This question is even more pressing in the context of rapid habitat loss and fragmentation, which threaten global biodiversity. However, the relative influence of habitat loss and landscape fragmentation, the spatial patterning of remaining habitat, remains unclear. If landscape pattern affects population size, managers may be able to design landscapes that mitigate habitat loss. We present the results of a mensurative experiment designed to test four habitat loss vs. fragmentation hypotheses. Unlike previous studies, we measured landscape structure using quantitative, spatially explicit habitat distribution models previously developed for two species: Blackburnian Warbler (Dendroica fusca) and Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla). We used a stratified sampling design that reduced the confounding of habitat amount and fragmentation variables. Occurrence and reoccurrence of both species were strongly influenced by characteristics at scales greater than the individual territory, indicating little support for the random-sample hypothesis. However, the type and spatial extent of landscape influence differed. Both occurrence and reoccurrence of Blackburnian Warblers were influenced by the amount of poor-quality matrix at 300- and 2000-m spatial extents. The occurrence and reoccurrence of Ovenbirds depended on a landscape pattern variable, patch size, but only in cases when patches were isolated. These results support the hypothesis that landscape pattern is important for some species only when the amount of suitable habitat is low. Although theoretical models have predicted such an interaction between landscape fragmentation and composition, to our knowledge this is the first study to report empirical evidence of such nonlinear fragmentation effects. Defining landscapes quantitatively from an organism-based perspective may increase power to detect fragmentation effects, particularly in forest mosaics where boundaries between patches and matrix are ambiguous. Our results indicate that manipulating landscape pattern may reduce negative impacts of habitat loss for Ovenbird, but not Blackburnian Warbler. We emphasize that most variance in the occurrence of both species was explained by local scale or landscape composition variables rather than variables reflecting landscape pattern.     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

Implications of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein elevation caused by transabdominal and transcervical CVS

Of 2882 women allocated to either transabdominal CVS (TA) or transcervical CVS (TC) at two large obstetric centres in Denmark, 2707 had blood samples drawn before and 30 min after CVS for maternal serum-alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) measurement. 2535 of these women had cytogenetically normal pregnancies and 2091 of them went on to have samples drawn at the 18–20 week follow-up. Post-procedure MSAFP values were correlated to the biopsy method used, with mean MSAFP values significantly higher after TA than TC, 33 and 15 kU/l, respectively (P<0·001). Following TA procedures, 18 per cent of cases had feto-maternal transfusion higher than 0·1 ml; this occurred in only 5 per cent of TC cases. MSAFP levels were associated with spontaneous fetal loss in the TA group but not in the TC group. TC, however, was followed by more losses than TA. The post-CVS MSAFP value was positively correlated with the amount of villi aspirated. The difference in post-procedure elevation in MSAFP 30 min later (average 18 kU/l higher for TA than for TC) was not reflected in raised levels at the 18–20 week follow-up. Study medians at mid-trimester did not differ from reference group medians established from a group of singleton pregnancies with sonographically determined gestational age who did not experience invasive procedures and delivered normal infants. Our findings suggest that CVS does not compromise mid-trimester MSAFP for screening for neural tube defects (NTDs). Extremely high mid-trimester MSAFP values in the TC group could predict imminent loss.     

Cycads: their evolution,toxins, herbivores and insect pollinators

Palaeobiological evidence indicates that gymnosperms were wind-pollinated and that insect pollination began in angiosperms in the Lower Cretaceous (ca. 135 mya) leading to close associations between higher plants and their pollinators. Cycads, which were widespread and pervasive throughout the Mesozoic (250-65 mya) are among the most primitive living seed-plants found today. Because pollination by beetles and by thrips has now been detected in several modern cycads, it is attractive to speculate that some insects and cycads had already developed similar mutualistic interactions in the Triassic (250-205 mya), long before the advent of angiosperms. We also draw attention to another key factor in this insect-plant relationship, namely secondary, defensive plant substances which must always have controlled interspecific interactions. Cycads mainly produce toxic azoglucosides and neurotoxic non-protein amino acids (e.g. BMAA), which apparently are crucial elements in the development and maintenance of mutualism (pollination) and parasitism (herbivory) by cycad-linked herbivores. We now add new results on the uptake and storage of the main toxin, cycasin, of the Mexican cycad Zamia furfuracea by its pollinator, the weevil Rhopalotria mollis, and by a specialist herbivore of Zamia integrifolia, the aposematic Atala butterfly Eumaeus atala.     

Emission and fate assessment of methyl tertiary butyl ether in the Boston area airshed using a simple multimedia box model: comparison with urban air measurements

Expected urban air concentrations of the gasoline additive methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) were calculated using volatile emissions estimates and screening transport models, and these predictions were compared with Boston, MA, area urban air measurements. The total volatile flux of MTBE into the Boston primary metropolitan statistical area (PMSA) airshed was calculated based on estimated automobile nontailpipe emissions and the Universal Quasi-Chemical Functional-Group Activity Coefficient computed abundance of MTBE in gasoline vapor. The fate of MTBE in the Boston PMSA was assessed using both the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances, which is a steady-state multimedia box model, and a simple airshed box model. Both models were parameterized based on the meteorological conditions observed during air sampling in the Boston area. Measured average urban air concentrations of 0.1 and 1 microg/m3 MTBE during February and September of 2000, respectively, were comparable to corresponding model predictions of 0.3 and 1 microg/m3 and could be essentially explained from estimated temperature-dependent volatile emissions rates, observed average wind speed (the airshed flushing rate), and reaction with ambient tropospheric hydroxyl radical (*OH), within model uncertainty. These findings support the proposition that one can estimate gasoline component source fluxes and use simple multimedia models to screen the potential impact of future proposed gasoline additives on urban airsheds.     

Bioavailability of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin from municipal incinerator fly ash to freshwater fish

The bioavailability of 2,3,7,8-TCDD from municipal incinerator fly ash to freshwater fish was determined. It was observed that carp exposed to fly ash containing all 22 TCDD isomers, or the solvent extract of the fly ash, retain only 2,3,7,8-TCDD. Exposures with fly ash appears to follow a dose response relationship for bioconcentration, however, the bioavailability of 2,3,7,8-TCDD was not directly related to the level of 2,3,7,8-TCDD in fly ash for two fly ash samples studied.     

Estimation of organic carbon blank values and error structures of the speciation trends network data for source apportionment

Because the particulate organic carbon (OC) concentrations reported in U.S. Environment Protection Agency Speciation Trends Network (STN) data were not blank corrected, the OC blank concentrations were estimated using the intercept in particulate matter < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) regression against OC concentrations. The estimated OC blank concentrations ranged from 1 to 2.4 microg/m3 showing higher values in urban areas for the 13 monitoring sites in the northeastern United States. In the STN data, several different samplers and analyzers are used, and various instruments show different method detection limit (MDL) values, as well as errors. A comprehensive set of error structures that would be used for numerous source apportionment studies of STN data was estimated by comparing a limited set of measured concentrations and their associated uncertainties. To examine the estimated error structures and investigate the appropriate MDL values, PM2.5 samples collected at a STN site in Burlington, VT, were analyzed through the application of the positive matrix factorization. A total of 323 samples that were collected between December 2000 and December 2003 and 49 species based on several variable selection criteria were used, and eight sources were successfully identified in this study with the estimated error structures and min values among different MDL values from the five instruments: secondary sulfate aerosol (41%), secondary nitrate aerosol (20%), airborne soil (15%), gasoline vehicle emissions (7%), diesel emissions (7%), aged sea salt (4%), copper smelting (3%), and ferrous smelting (2%). Time series plots of contributions from airborne soil indicate that the highly elevated impacts from this source were likely caused primarily by dust storms.