GLCs last great achievement?

Environment Systems and Decisions -     

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR EVALUATING WATERSHED CONDITIONS WITh RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Many rainfall-runoff modeling studies compare flood quantiles for different land-use and/or flood mitigation scenarios. However, when flood quantiles are estimated using conventional statistical methods, comparisons may be misleading because the estimates often misrepresent the quantile relationship between scenarios. An alternate statistical procedure is proposed, in which rainfall-runoff modeling is used to evaluate an approximate relationship between flood quantiles for different scenarios. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed method produces flood quantile estimates that better reflect the differences between scenarios. The ratio between quantiles for different scenarios is more accurate, so comparisons of the scenarios using flood quantiles are more reliable.     

Towards a global emergency plan for the environment

This editorial is based on a paper first produced by Winfried Böll entitled, A Global Emergency Plan for the Environment which appeared inThe Crisis of Global Environment: Demands for Global Politics published by The Foundation Development and Peace in 1989. Winfried Böll is the retired Ministerial Director of the Ministry for Economic Co-operation, West Germany. He lectures at the University of Duisburg on matters related to foreign aid and government and administration, he is also an advisor to the Board of the Foundation Development and Peace. The Foundation was established in 1987 at the initiative of former West German Chancellor, Willy Brandt. Its Executive Board, as well as its Board of Trustees and its members are composed of distinguished personalities from political, social, economic and scientific life who share a sense of global responsibility. The Foundation is non-partisan and non-profit-making.Its objectives are summarised below:     

Analysis and application of forest fuels data

Recent advances in fire modeling permit quantitative estimations of fire behavior from quantitative inputs that describe the fuel array and conditions, such as weather and site data, under which it will burn. This paper describes the collection, analysis, and stratification of flammable forest fuels data for coniferous forest ecosystems in Montana and then illustrates the resource management application of these data in three areas: the development of the fire behavior model, a determination of the model's sensitivity to input errors as reflected by fire behavior prediction errors, and the development of a fire hazard simulator (TAROT). A new integrated stand simulator, GANDALF, is highlighted.Conclusions center on the need to integrate fire management into the land management planning decision-making process.This work was supported by a USDI National Park Service contract to Gradient Modeling, Inc., a nonprofit research foundation devoted to ecologic research and resource management applications, and by cooperative aid agreements between Gradient Modeling, Inc. and the USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Northern Forest Fire Laboratory (Fire in Multiple Use Management, R, D, and A Program).