Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Combined influence of food level and inoculation density on competition between <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anuraeopsis fissa</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus patulus</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus macracanthus</Emphasis> (Rotifera: Brachionidae)

We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 ⁶) and high food levels (1.5 × 10⁶ cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390. The article was submitted by the authors in English.     

Assessment of the natural-cultural resources in Çanakkale for nature-based tourism

While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined.     

Coat color polymorphism in populations of the northern mole vole in the Ural Region

Collections made in the course of long-term field studies on ecology of the northern mole vole Ellobius talpinus Pall. in the Ural Region and neighboring areas (more than 2000 individuals from 24 points of the species range) were used to analyze geographic variation in its coat color (color morphs). On the basis of long-term observations (1985–1999) on marked animals from a polymorphic population (Kurtamyshskii raion, Kurgan oblast), the life spans of males and females and the dependence of life span on population density and structure were estimated in animals of different color morphs. Each color morph of E. talpinus was shown to have specific features of the seasonal dynamics of age structure and migrations.     

Photodegradation of organophosphorus insecticides - investigations of products and their toxicity using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and AChE-thermal lens spectrometric bioassay

Four organophosphorus compounds: azinphos-methyl, chlorpyrifos, malathion and malaoxon in aqueous solution were degraded by using a 125 W xenon parabolic lamp. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was used to monitor the disappearance of starting compounds and formation of degradation products as a function of time. AChE-thermal lens spectrometric bioassay was employed to assess the toxicity of photoproducts. The photodegradation kinetics can be described by a first-order degradation curve C=C0e(-kt), resulting in the following half lives: 2.5min for azinphos-methyl, 11.6 min for malathion, 13.3 min for chlorpyrifos and 45.5 min for malaoxon, under given experimental conditions. During the photoprocess several intermediates were identified by GC-MS suggesting the pathway of OP degradation. The oxidation of chlorpyrifos results in the formation of chlorpyrifos-oxon as the main identified photoproduct. In case of malathion and azinphos-methyl the corresponding oxon analogues were not detected. The formation of diethyl (dimethoxy-phosphoryl) succinate in traces was observed during photodegradation of malaoxon and malathion. Several other photoproducts including trimethyl phosphate esters, which are known to be AChE inhibitors and 1,2,3-benzotriazin-4(3H)-one as a member of triazine compounds were identified in photodegraded samples of malathion, malaoxon, and azinphos-methyl. Based on this, two main degradation pathways can be proposed, both result of the (P-S-C) bond cleavage taking place at the side of leaving group. The enhanced inhibition of AChE observed with the TLS bioassay during the initial 30 min of photodegradation in case of all four OPs, confirmed the formation of toxic intermediates. With the continuation of irradiation, the AChE inhibition decreased, indicating that the formed toxic compounds were further degraded to AChE non-inhibiting products. The presented results demonstrate the importance of toxicity monitoring during the degradation of OPs in processes of waste water remediation, before releasing it into the environment.     

Pesticide Residues in Bovine Milk from a Predominantly Agricultural State of Haryana, India

One hundred forty seven samples of bovine milk were collected from 14 districts of Haryana, India during December 1998–February 1999 and analysed for the presence of organochlorine pesticide (OCPs) residues. ∑HCH, ∑DDT, ∑endosulfan and aldrin were detected in 100%, 97%, 43% and 12% samples and with mean values of 0.0292, 0.0367, 0.0022 and 0.0036 μg/ml, respectively. Eight percent samples exceeded the maximum residue limit (MRL) of 0.10 mg/kg as recommended by WHO for ∑HCH, 4% samples of 0.05 mg/kg for α-HCH, 5% samples of 0.01 mg/kg for γ-HCH, 26% samples of 0.02 mg/kg for β-HCH as recommended by PFAA and 24% samples of 0.05 mg/kg as recommended by FAO for ∑DDT. Concentrations of β-HCH and p,p′-DDE were more as compared to other isomers and metabolites of HCH and DDT.     

Rapid growth of clones of the red alga Chondrus crispus: applications in assays of toxic substances and in physiological studies

Growth rates of excised apical segments from three Chondrus crispus Stackhouse clones were rapid, reproducible and easily measured using simple equipment. Clonal segments exhibited a high degree of phenotypic stability, with coefficients of variation in growth rates being typically less than 5%. Sensitivity of the assay was demonstrated using 24-h pulses of the toxicants Cu²⁺ (10 to 150 ppb) and the molluscicide Bayluscide (100 to 500 ppb). As a further demonstration of applicability of this assay system, growth rates were measured over two consecutive 24-h photoperiods using a normally pigmented red gametophytic clone and a green colored mutant derived from it. Growth rates were highest in the first hours of the light phase for both clones, with growth of the green mutant being consistently inferior to that of the normally pigmented one. Significant changes were measured with intervals as short as 4 h using only five apical segments for each treatment. The C. crispus assay described is sensitive, relatively rapid, and statistically robust when applied to toxicant testing in seawater and to physiological studies.     

Stability of a Coal Waste Artificial Reef

The feasibility of using U.K. coal-fired power station waste materials for artificial reef production is being examined. in June, 1989, an experimental artificial reef was constructed in Poole Bay, off the central south coast of the U.K., using three different mixtures of pulverised fuel ash (PFA), flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) gypsum and slurry, stabilized with cement and formed into blocks. Fifty tonnes of 40 × 20 × 20 cm blocks were formed into eight conical reef units replicating three different PFA/gypsum mixtures and one concrete control. the reef structure is 10m below chart datum on a flat sandy sea-bed.

Combustion of coal concentrates the heavy metal content in the resultant ash. the purpose of stabilization of the ash as blocks is twofold: to immobilize heavy metals (or other components) and to provide hard substratum for the attachment of organisms. to examine the effectiveness of this stabilization and hence the environmental compatibility of the block materials, heavy metal (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Mn, Ni, Zn) content of the blocks has been monitored routinely over two years, to determine leaching rates. Sectional profiles indicate partial replacement of calcium content by magnesium. Associated with this there has also been some redistribution of heavy metals. Only in the case of cadmium has there been a detectable loss from the surface of blocks. Chromium and manganese concentrations appear to have increased. the metal content of the reef epibiota (including ascidians, Ascidia mentula; hydroids, Halecium spp.; bryozoans, Bugula spp. and red algae) growing on the ash blocks has been compared to that of epibiota attached to the concrete controls and surrounding sea-bed. to date no evidence of excess bioaccumulation of metals has been detected.

The physical integrity of the ash reef blocks has been maintained. There is evidence that the blocks are increasing in compressive strength.

An indication of the fishery enhancement potential of the experimental structure is given by the presence of eight commercially fished species (crustaceans and molluscs) including lobsters (Homarus gammarus).