Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble

Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations.For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO₂ daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

Cost and Benefits of Road Dust Control in Seattle’s Industrial Valley

The paving of gravel roads with an average daily traffic (ADT) over 15 is a least cost method for reducing suspended particulate In the air in Seattle. It is also a good business investment when the ADT exceeds 100. Clean roads, gutters, and parking lots may reduce or eliminate Seattle’s most serious environmental constraint on economic development. In a study done in Seattle’s Duwamish Valley the impact of road dust on air quality was measured by obtaining dust emission factors for vehicles traveling at 10, 20, and 30 mph on gravel as well as dusty paved roads. A University of Washington Mark II Cascade Impactor was mounted on a trailer and towed behind a car to determine the concentration and size distribution of this dust. It was found that each vehicle mile at 20 mph on unpaved roads contributed 7.0 Ib of dust to the air, 1.9 Ib consisting of particles smaller than 10 microns in diameter and 0.24 Ib below 2 microns. Three to eight percent by weight of this respirable dust was free silica, which is potentially toxic. The quantity of dust generated varies as an exponent of the speed. The concentrations of dust found in the air near a dry gravel road with an ADT of 250 reached 584 μg/m3 for an 8 hr work day. A 24 hr suspended particulate reading of 463 μg/m3 total and 3.83 μg/m3 free silica was found beside a dusty paved road with an ADT of 18,000. Nineteen miles of gravel roads and 110 miles of dusty paved roads contributed 2700 tons/year of particulate, of which 700 tons were below 10 microns. Paving or oiling such roads will produce benefits of $3,881,000 yearly in household cleaning, health care, sewer, vehicle operation, and road maintenance costs as well as an increase in property values. Clean roads can lower the cost of clean air in Seattle.     

Wheat leaf epicuticular characteristics as rust inhibitors

Abstract

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) trichomes influence wheat leaf rust (Puccinia recondita Rob. ex Desm.) germling elongation as a function of the external element (i.e. ‐ Ca, Si, P, CI) concentration. Basal cells of multicellular trichomes have a high Ca content; and, Ca²⁺ has been shown to inhibit elongation of primary roots. Evaluation of epicuticular wax composition in the intracellular areas of epidermal cells might explain the disorganized growth in those locations.     

Assessing the Potential Impacts to Riparian Ecosystems Resulting from Hemlock Mortality in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is spreading across forests in eastern North America, causing mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carr.) and Carolina hemlock (Tsuga caroliniana Engelm.). The loss of hemlock from riparian forests in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) may result in significant physical, chemical, and biological alterations to stream environments. To assess the influence of riparian hemlock stands on stream conditions and estimate possible impacts from hemlock loss in GSMNP, we paired hardwood- and hemlock-dominated streams to examine differences in water temperature, nitrate concentrations, pH, discharge, and available photosynthetic light. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify stream pairs that were similar in topography, geology, land use, and disturbance history in order to isolate forest type as a variable. Differences between hemlock- and hardwood-dominated streams could not be explained by dominant forest type alone as forest type yields no consistent signal on measured conditions of headwater streams in GSMNP. The variability in the results indicate that other landscape variables, such as the influence of understory Rhododendron species, may exert more control on stream conditions than canopy composition. The results of this study suggest that the replacement of hemlock overstory with hardwood species will have minimal impact on long-term stream conditions, however disturbance during the transition is likely to have significant impacts. Management of riparian forests undergoing hemlock decline should, therefore, focus on facilitating a faster transition to hardwood-dominated stands to minimize long-term effects on water quality.     

Pollutant Transport During a Regional O3 Episode in the Mid-Atlantic States

ABSTRACT

Ozone (O₃) concentrations in the Baltimore-Washington (B-W) metropolitan area frequently exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) in the summer months. The most extreme O₃ events occur in multi-day high O₃ episodes.¹ These events can be regional in scale, with O₃ concentrations exceeding the NAAQS at numerous locations along the eastern U.S. seaboard, and are typically associated with slow-moving or stagnant high pressure systems.^2-5 In the B-W region, the most extreme events typically occur with surface high pressure overhead or just west of the region and an upper air high-pressure area (ridge) to the west or northwest.¹ Besides providing conditions conducive to local O₃ production (subsidence and strong low-level inversions, weak horizontal winds, little cloud cover), this weather pattern may also result in transport of O₃ and its precursors from heavily industrialized areas west and north of the B-W region. In this paper, observations and back trajectories made during the severe regional O₃ event of July 12-15, 1995, are used to confirm the hypothesis that significant regional-scale transport of O₃ and its precursors occur during extreme O₃ events of the standard type in the B-W area.     

Seasonal changes in the diet and feeding behaviour of a top predator indicate a flexible response to deteriorating oceanographic conditions

Shifts in the diet of top predators can be linked to changes in environmental conditions. In this study, we tested relationships between environmental variation and seasonal changes in diet of a top predator, the grey-headed albatross Thalassarche chrysostoma, breeding at Bird Island, South Georgia in an austral summer of 1999/2000. Oceanographic conditions in that year around South Georgia were abnormal (i.e. anomalously high sea surface temperature to a relative 19-year long-term mean). The diet of grey-headed albatrosses showed high seasonal variation, shifting from cephalopods (42.9 % by mass) in late February to Antarctic krill Euphausia superba (58.3 %) in late April, and grey-headed albatrosses breeding performance was low (16.8 %). This study shows these albatrosses did not manage to find sufficient alternative prey and highlight the risk to top predators if there is an increase in the frequency or severity of food shortages in Antarctic waters.     

Processes Influencing Secondary Aerosol Formation in the San Joaquin Valley during Winter

Abstract

Air quality data collected in the California Regional PM₁₀/PM_2.5 Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) are analyzed to qualitatively assess the processes affecting secondary aerosol formation in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). This region experiences some of the highest fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) mass concentrations in California (≤188 μg/m³ 24-hr average), and secondary aerosol components (as a group) frequently constitute over half of the fine aerosol mass in winter. The analyses are based on 15 days of high-frequency filter and canister measurements and several months of wintertime continuous gas and aerosol measurements. The phase-partitioning of nitrogen oxide (NO_x)-related nitrogen species and carbonaceous species shows that concentrations of gaseous precursor species are far more abundant than measured secondary aerosol nitrate or estimated secondary organic aerosols. Comparisons of ammonia and nitric acid concentrations indicate that ammonium nitrate formation is limited by the availability of nitric acid rather than ammonia. Time-resolved aerosol nitrate data collected at the surface and on a 90-m tower suggest that both the daytime and nighttime nitric acid formation pathways are active, and entrainment of aerosol nitrate formed aloft at night may explain the spatial homogeneity of nitrate in the SJV. NO_x and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions plus background O₃ levels are expected to determine NO_x oxidation and nitric acid production rates, which currently control the ammonium nitrate levels in the SJV. Secondary organic aerosol formation is significant in winter, especially in the Fresno urban area. Formation of secondary organic aerosol is more likely limited by the rate of VOC oxidation than the availability of VOC precursors in winter.     

Permitting a new mine: Insights from the community debate

When a mining company selects a site for development, the company begins a dialogue with the local community about receiving the necessary approvals for the mining permits. The dialogue focuses on how well the company can use science and technology to manage risk to the local environment, and on how much economic benefit will be gained by the local community for accepting the risk. A useful approach to better understand how the debate affects the outcome of the permitting effort is to use the method of “discourse communities and analysis”. This paper analyzes two efforts by Kennecott (Rio Tinto) and one by Exxon to develop base metal mine sites in the Upper Midwest of the USA. As the three case studies show, the local pro- and anti-mining discourse community members will not be changing their basic positions as the permitting of a new mine is debated. Accordingly, both communities are trying to convince undecided stakeholders rather than talking to each other. Both sides are using ever more sophisticated media methods to communicate their message to the undecided residents of the community. By winning the support of the majority of the undecided residents, political pressure can be used to sway the decision.