Structuring expert input for a knowledge-based approach to watershed condition assessment for the Northwest Forest Plan, USA

Assessments of watershed condition for aquatic and riparian species often have to rely on expert opinion because of the complexity of establishing statistical relationships among the many factors involved. Such expert-based assessments can be difficult to document and apply consistently over time and space. We describe and reflect on the process of developing a computer-based decision support application from expert judgments for assessing aquatic and riparian conditions over the 100,000?km² managed by the US federal government under the Northwest Forest Plan. The decision support system helped structure and document the assessment process and provided consistency and transparency to the evaluation methodology. However, many decisions and trade-offs were required in the expert engagement and model-building processes. Knowledge elicitation in an interactive group had a number of benefits over nominal group or Delphi processes, but efficient knowledge capture required considerable planning and expertise in the subject matter and modeling process. Communicating model results for validation was problematic and only effectively accomplished via in-person workshops. The choice to use different expert groups for each biophysical province provided more opportunities for participation and promoted greater ownership in the assessment, but it also led to increased variation among the resulting model structures. We propose three possible approaches for better managing the consistency of assessment models when multiple expert groups are involved.     

Population as an oscillating system

In this paper we present a new approach describing population dynamics based on the view of a population as an oscillating system. To develop a mathematical model of an oscillating population, we applied a third-order differential equation. Our model describes population dynamics within a parametric-temporal continuum, formed by the relative values of population growth and decrease over time. In this paper we also illustrate how our oscillative model effectively compliments the existing suite of models in population dynamics.     

Managing Baltic Sea fisheries under contrasting production and predation regimes: ecosystem model analyses

Based on an earlier published ecosystem model, we have explored possible effects of different management scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The scenarios include an oligotrophication of the system, a drastic increase in the number of seals, and changes in the fishery management. From these simulations we conclude that fisheries, seals, and eutrophication all have strong and interacting impacts on the ecosystem. These interactions call for integrated management. The modeling highlights the potential for conflicts among management mandates such as flourishing fisheries, rebuilt seal populations, and substantially reduced eutrophication. The results also suggest that fisheries management reference points have to be adjusted in response to changes in the presence of natural predators or ecosystem productivity.     

Heterogeneity of chlorinated hydrocarbon sorption properties in a sandy aquifer

Hydraulic conductivity and sorption coefficients for chlorinated hydrocarbons (chloroform, carbon tetrachloride and tetrachloroethylene) were evaluated for 216 sediment samples collected across a 15 m transect and a 21 m depth interval in a contaminated aquifer near Schoolcraft, Michigan. Relationships between hydraulic conductivity, linear sorption partition coefficients, grain size classes, and spatial location were investigated using linear regression analysis and geostatistical techniques. Clear evidence of layering was found in sorption properties, hydraulic conductivity and grain sizes. Conductivity correlated well with grain size, as expected, but sorption varied inversely with grain size, contrary to some previous reports. No significant correlation was found between sorption properties and hydraulic conductivity. This is likely due to the unexpected presence of small amounts of highly sorptive coal-like solids, which dominate the sorption behavior but have little effect on conductivity. The results demonstrate that recent findings regarding the high sorption capacity of coal materials found in soils can exert a controlling influence on contaminant transport. Designers of in situ remediation systems should be cautioned that 1) it is not reasonable to assume that sorption capacity and hydraulic conductivity are related, 2) sorption capacity and hydraulic conductivity are critical measurements for contaminant site characterization and subsequent transport modeling, 3) estimating sorption capacity from organic carbon measurement may lead to greater errors than performing sorption isotherms, and 4) it is more important to characterize vertical heterogeneity rather than horizontal heterogeneity because both sorption and hydraulic conductivity are correlated across longer distances in the horizontal plane.     

Bottled water: how safe is it?

Sales of bottled water have increased dramatically in recent years, with worldwide sales of more than dollars 35 billion, largely because of the public perception of purity and safety and public concern about the quality of tap water. Presently, there are no Food and Drug Administration (Washington, D.C.) recommendations regarding temperature and duration of storage for bottled water once it is opened and used. The objectives of this study were to examine the effects of time and storage temperature on bacterial growth and characterize the types of microorganisms contaminating bottled water after drinking once from the bottle. Bottled and tap water were tested using standard microbiology culture techniques. The bacterial count in bottled water increased dramatically, from less than 1 colony per milliliter (col/mL) to 38,000 col/mL over 48 hours of storage at 37 degrees C. Bacterial growth was markedly reduced at cold temperatures (refrigeration) compared with room temperature, with 50% fewer bacterial colonies in 24 hours and 84% fewer colonies in 48 hours. Interestingly, tap water resulted in only minimal growth, especially at cold temperatures (< 100 col/mL at 48 hours). These findings may be useful to increase public awareness and development of guidelines on storage temperature and expiration time for bottled water once it is opened and used.     

Social foraging and dominance relationships: the effects of socially mediated interference

In socially foraging animals, it is widely acknowledged that the position of an individual within the dominance hierarchy of the group has a large effect upon its foraging behaviour and energetic intake, where the intake of subordinates can be reduced through socially mediated interference. In this paper, we explore the effects of interference upon group dynamics and individual behaviour, using a spatially explicit individual-based model. Each individual follows a simple behavioural rule based upon its energetic reserves and the actions of its neighbours (where the rule is derived from game theory models). We show that dominant individuals should have larger energetic reserves than their subordinates, and the size of this difference increases when either food is scarce, the intensity of interference suffered by the subordinates increases, or the distance over which dominant individuals affect subordinates increases. Unlike previous models, the results presented in this paper about differences in reserves are not based upon prior assumptions of the effects of social hierarchy and energetic reserves upon predation risk, and emerge through nothing more than a reduction in energetic intake by the subordinates when dominants are present. Furthermore, we show that increasing interference intensity, food availability or the distance over which dominants have an effect also causes the difference in movement between ranks to increase (where subordinates move more than dominants), and the distance over which dominants have an effect changes the size of the groups that the different ranks are found in. These results are discussed in relation to previous studies of intra- and interspecific dominance hierarchies.     

RAPD markers suggest genotypic effects on forager specialization in a eusocial wasp

Genetic variability within insect societies may provide a mechanism for increasing behavioral diversity among workers, thereby augmenting colony efficiency or flexibility. In order to assess the possibility that division of labor has a genetic component in the eusocial wasp Polybia aequatorialis, I asked whether the genotypes of workers within colonies correlated with behavioral specialization. Workers specialized by foraging for one of the four materials (wood pulp, insect prey, nectar, or water) gathered by their colonies. I collected foragers on 2 days from each of three colonies and identified the material the foragers were carrying when collected. I produced random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers from the genomic DNA of these foragers and estimated genotypic similarity of foragers based on sharing of variable RAPD marker bands. Contingency tests on 20 variable loci per colony showed statistically significant (P <0.05) biases in RAPD marker frequencies among forager types in the three colonies. Patterns of association of RAPD marker bands with specializations were constant in two colonies, but changed between collection days in one colony. RAPD marker biases suggest that division of labor among workers includes a genetic component in P. aequatorialis. Colony-level selection on variation in division of labor is a possible factor favoring the evolutionary maintenance of high genotypic variability (low relatedness) in epiponine wasp colonies and in other eusocial insects. Received: 18 July 1995/Accepted after revision: 1 October 1995     

Local and Indigenous management of climate change risks to archaeological sites

Hundreds of thousands of significant archaeological and cultural heritage sites (cultural sites) along the coasts of every continent are threatened by sea level rise, and many will be destroyed. This wealth of artefacts and monuments testifies to human history, cosmology and identity. While cultural sites are especially important to local and Indigenous communities, a stall in coordinated global action means adaptation at a local scale is often unsupported. In response, this paper produces a practical climate change risk analysis methodology designed for independent, community-scale management of cultural sites. It builds on existing methods that prioritise sites most at risk from climate impacts, proposing a field survey that integrates an assessment of the relative cultural value of sites with assessment of exposure and sensitivity to climate impacts. The field survey also stands as a monitoring program and complements an assessment of organisational adaptive capacity. The preliminary field survey was tested by Indigenous land managers in remote northern Australia at midden and rock art sites threatened by sea level rise, extreme flood events and a range of non-climactic hazards. A participatory action research methodology—incorporating planning workshops, semi-structured interviews and participant observations—gave rise to significant modifications to the preliminary field survey as well as management prioritisation of 120 sites. The field survey is anticipated to have global application, particularly among marginalised and remote Indigenous communities. Well-planned and informed participation, with community control, monitoring and well-informed actions, will contribute significantly to coordinated global and regional adaptation strategies.     

The metabolic demands of swimming behavior influence the evolution of skeletal muscle fiber design in the brachyuran crab family Portunidae

We investigated the influence of intracellular diffusion on muscle fiber design in several swimming and non-swimming brachyuran crabs. Species with sustained swimming behavior had aerobic dark fibers subdivided into small metabolic functional units, creating short diffusion distances necessary to support the high rates of aerobic ATP turnover associated with endurance activity. This dark fiber design was observed in all swimming species including Ovalipes ocellatus, which has apparently evolved swimming behavior independently of other Portunidae. In addition, we observed fiber and subdivision size-dependent differences in organelle distribution. Mitochondria, which rely on oxygen to function, were uniformly distributed in small fibers/subdivisions, but were clustered at the fiber periphery in larger fibers. The inverse pattern was observed for nuclei, which are not oxygen dependent, but rely on the transport of slow diffusing macromolecules. Phylogenetically independent contrast analysis revealed that these relationships were largely independent of phylogeny. Our results demonstrate cellular responses to diffusion that were necessary for the evolution of swimming and that are likely to be broadly applicable.