Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users’ perspective

Integrated Assessment (IA) models aim at providing information- and decision-support to complex problems. This paper argues that uncertainty analysis in IA models should be user-driven in order to strengthen science–policy interaction. We suggest an approach to uncertainty analysis that starts with investigating model users’ demands for uncertainty information. These demands are called “uncertainty information needs”. Identifying model users’ uncertainty information needs allows focusing the analysis on those uncertainties which users consider relevant and meaningful. As an illustrative example, we discuss the case of examining users’ uncertainty information needs in the SEAMLESS Integrated Framework (SEAMLESS-IF), an IA model chain for assessing and comparing alternative agricultural and environmental policy options. The most important user group of SEAMLESS-IF are policy experts at the European and national level. Uncertainty information needs of this user group were examined in an interactive process during the development of SEAMLESS-IF and by using a questionnaire. Results indicate that users’ information requirements differed from the uncertainty categories considered most relevant by model developers. In particular, policy experts called for addressing a broader set of uncertainty sources (e.g. model structure and technical model setup). The findings highlight that investigating users’ uncertainty information needs is an essential step towards creating confidence in an IA model and its outcomes. This alone, however, may not be sufficient for effectively implementing a user-oriented uncertainty analysis in such models. As the case study illustrates, it requires to include uncertainty analysis into user participation from the outset of the IA modelling process.     

Perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonate in the sediment of the Roter Main river, Bayreuth, Germany

Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) are widely distributed in aquatic ecosystems. Their sources are known but few studies about their accumulation potential in river sediments exist. The aim of this study is to assess the concentrations of PFOA and PFOS in sediments in relation to their levels in river water receiving effluent from a waste water treatment plant (WWTP). PFOS accumulates by a factor of about 40 relative to river water, PFOA only up to threefold. In contrast to previous suggestions, in this case the enrichment on sediment is not correlated to the total organic carbon contents.     

Temporal trends and spatial distribution of PCDD, PCDF, and PCB in pine and spruce shoots

In Germany, there is a lack of consistent and comparable data for the time dependent behaviour and spatial distribution of dioxin-like and indicator PCB in ambient air, deposition and plants. The aim of this study was to improve the data on PCDD/PCDF, dioxin-like PCB and non dioxin-like PCB in spruce and pine shoots from different locations and years by retrospective monitoring. The survey was conducted with archived samples of one-year old spruce shoots (Picea abies) and pine shoots (Pinus sylvestris) from the German environmental specimen bank. Two sets of samples from locations in urbanized areas in western and eastern Germany (Warndt and Duebener Heide Mitte, respectively) were investigated as time series. Additionally, spruce shoots from seven different rural locations sampled in the years 2000-2004 were analyzed in order to get an overview about the spatial distribution of PCB and PCDD/PCDF. The analytical results of the samples from the two urbanized areas clearly show that the atmospheric contamination with PCDD and PCDF has declined by about 75% between 1985 and 1997 at Warndt and about 40% between 1991 and 1997 at Duebener Heide. However, concentrations stayed virtually constant at both locations from 1997 to 2004 at a level of about 1 ng WHO-TEQ/kg dry matter (d.m.). Similarly, the investigation of spruce shoots from rural locations from 2000 to 2004 did not reveal a temporal trend at any site. PCDD/PCDF levels were between 0.1 and 1.0 ng WHO-TEQ/kg d.m. At the urbanized location Warndt the six indicator PCB as well as the 12 dioxin-like PCB according to WHO revealed a significant decline by more than 75% between 1985 and 1999. Thereafter, PCB levels stayed virtually constant. At the location Duebener Heide an overall decrease of PCB concentrations in pine shoots of about 60% was detected between 1991 and 2004. Spruce shoots from all locations showed a relevant contribution of dioxin-like PCB to the total WHO toxicity equivalent (PCDD/PCDF+PCB). In most samples, the contribution of dioxin-like PCB was between 21% and 41%. The TEQ contribution of PCB in the samples from three rural sites was higher and similar to the TEQ value of PCDD/PCDF. The investigated pine shoots from the urbanized site Duebener Heide showed a 15-28% contribution of dioxin-like PCB to total TEQ and thus lower than in spruce shoots from different locations. In all samples except one PCB 126 contributed to more than 80% to the PCB-TEQ.     

Simultaneous monitoring of profiles of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in contaminated air with semipermeable membrane devices and spruce needles

Gaseous emissions of combusted electronic scrap, PVC, carpet and wood were monitored for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by simultaneous use of semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) and shoots of spruce needles (Picea abies). It was found that phenanthrene, acenaphthylene and fluorene were the dominating PAHs in all samples. SPMDs and needles mainly sequestered PAH associated with the vapor phase. Particle-bound PAHs were only detected in small amounts, at which the needles tended to uptake more of these compounds in comparison to the SPMDs. Nevertheless, the logarithm of the concentrations of PAHs analyzed in both passive samplers after the same sampling period exhibited a significant linear correlation with correlation coefficients larger than 0.8073. SPMDs and spruce needles can complement each other in passive air sampling for compounds with a preference to the gas phase rather than aerosols.     

A theory of chemicals regulation and testing

Risk management of chemicals requires information about their adverse effects such as toxicity and persistence, for example. Testing of chemicals allows for improving the information base for regulatory decision‐making on chemicals' production and use. Testing a large number of chemicals with limited time and resources forces a prioritization of chemicals. This paper proposes a decision model that provides a ranking of chemicals according to “urgency to test”. The model adopts a value‐of‐information approach describing the expected welfare gains from regulatory actions that respond to test information. We determine the value‐of‐information of tests revealing chemicals' levels of toxicity and persistence. We compare our findings to the prioritization of chemicals in the new European Chemicals Regulation “REACH”, where several tens of thousands of chemicals are to be tested in order to fill existing information gaps and to implement more effective risk management. We find that the main lines of chemicals' prioritization under REACH receive backing from our decision model. However, prioritization for testing can be further improved by accounting for testing costs and the sensitivity of regulatory action with respect to the test information.     

Female response to song reflects male developmental history in swamp sparrows

One explanation for why female songbirds attend to male song is that the quality of a male's song is associated with the quality of his developmental history. We tested this hypothesis by playing back to female swamp sparrows (Melospiza georgiana) songs recorded from males of either inferior or superior developmental histories, as assessed by their rates of mass gain during the first 18 days post-hatching. Females showed significantly higher levels of courtship display in response to songs of males with superior growth than to songs of males with inferior growth. Out of nine song traits measured, only song duration correlated with variation in female response; duration was also the only trait that differed significantly in univariate comparisons between the superior growth songs and the inferior growth songs. In a multivariate analysis, however, inferior growth songs were best discriminated from superior growth songs by combining three song traits: trill rate, stereotypy, and the number of notes per syllable. We suggest that early developmental stress degrades song in many small ways, and that it is the cumulative effect of the resulting deficits that explains lower female response.     

Perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonate released from a waste water treatment plant in Bavaria, Germany

Purpose

Perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), and precursors and derivatives thereof have been employed as surfactants and anti-adhesives. PFOA and PFOS are environmentally persistent and the discharge of municipal waste waters is one of the principal routes of these compounds into the aquatic environment. In a previous study, the concentrations of PFOA and PFOS in grab samples collected from the waste water treatment plant (WWTP) of Bayreuth, a city of 72,000 inhabitants in Bavaria, Germany, during two periods showed considerable variability. For a better estimate of average mass flows, the surfactants were monitored (five samplings) from 16 March to 18 May 2007. In a second campaign, river water receiving the WWTP effluent was sampled twice a day for five consecutive days.

Methods

Quantitative analysis was done by stable-isotope dilution, pre-cleaning, and pre-concentration by solid-phase extraction, and liquid chromatography followed by electrospray ionization/tandem mass spectrometry.

Results

The mass flows of PFOA and PFOS through the WWTP were determined. PFOA is fully discharged into the river, while about half of PFOS is retained in the sewage sludge. The average daily mass load of the river Roter Main by the WWTP of Bayreuth is about 1.2?±?0.5 g PFOA and 5?±?2 g PFOS, with variations of up to 140% within one day.

Conclusion

Overall, the total annual release to the rivers of Germany may be in the range of several hundred kilograms of PFOA and several tons of PFOS.     

Quantifying dispersal and establishment limitation in a population of an epiphytic lichen

Dispersal is a process critical for the dynamics and persistence of metapopulations, but it is difficult to quantify. It has been suggested that the old-forest lichen Lobaria pulmonaria is limited by insufficient dispersal ability. We analyzed 240 DNA extracts derived from snow samples by a L. pulmonaria-specific real-time PCR (polymerase chain reaction) assay of the ITS (internal transcribed spacer) region allowing for the discrimination among propagules originating from a single, isolated source tree or propagules originating from other locations. Samples that were detected as positives by real-time PCR were additionally genotyped for five L. pulmonaria microsatellite loci. Both molecular approaches demonstrated substantial dispersal from other than local sources. In a landscape approach, we additionally analyzed 240 snow samples with real-time PCR of ITS and detected propagules not only in forests where L. pulmonaria was present, but also in large unforested pasture areas and in forest patches where L. pulmonaria was not found. Monitoring of soredia of L. pulmonaria transplanted to maple bark after two vegetation periods showed high variance in growth among forest stands, but no significant differences among different transplantation treatments. Hence, it is probably not dispersal limitation that hinders colonization in the old-forest lichen L. pulmonaria, but ecological constraints at the stand level that can result in establishment limitation. Our study exemplifies that care has to be taken to adequately separate the effects of dispersal limitation from a limitation of establishment.     

Differential predator escape performance contributes to a latitudinal sex ratio cline in a migratory shorebird

Sexual segregation outside the mating season is common in vertebrates, and has been attributed to sexual differences in predator escape performance in ungulates and fish, but not in birds. Here, we tested the hypothesis that sex- and latitude-specific predator escape performance underlies the differential nonbreeding distribution of western sandpipers (Calidris mauri), a migratory shorebird. Females overwinter further south along the American Pacific coast, creating a latitudinal cline in sex ratio. Escape performance is reduced with increasing body mass, and birds generally carry less fat further south. Western sandpipers with poor escape performance were therefore predicted to prefer southern sites to reduce the risk of mortality posed by predators. Data from four nonbreeding latitudes showed that wing loading, used as an index of escape performance, was overall higher for females, and that it decreased with latitude in both sexes. Within latitudes, wing loading was lower at smaller, and presumably more dangerous, sites. Flight response to a predatory attack was longer in the south. Mortality risk offers a novel and candidate explanation for differential distribution patterns in western sandpipers and possibly other avian migrants.