Phenological tracking enables positive species responses to climate change

Earlier spring phenology observed in many plant species in recent decades provides compelling evidence that species are already responding to the rising global temperatures associated with anthropogenic climate change. There is great variability among species, however, in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. Species that do not phenologically "track" climate change may be at a disadvantage if their growth becomes limited by missed interactions with mutualists, or a shorter growing season relative to earlier-active competitors. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that phenological sensitivity could be used to predict species performance in a warming climate, by synthesizing results across terrestrial warming experiments. We assembled data for 57 species across 24 studies where flowering or vegetative phenology was matched with a measure of species performance. Performance metrics included biomass, percent cover, number of flowers, or individual growth. We found that species that advanced their phenology with warming also increased their performance, whereas those that did not advance tended to decline in performance with warming. This indicates that species that cannot phenologically "track" climate may be at increased risk with future climate change, and it suggests that phenological monitoring may provide an important tool for setting future conservation priorities.     

The selective advantage of host feminization: a case study of the green crab Carcinus maenas and the parasitic barnacle Sacculina carcini

Male crabs infected by parasitic barnacles (Rhizocephala) are known to be morphologically feminized. Here, we investigate morphological chances in green crabs, Carcinus maenas, induced by the parasitic barnacle Sacculina carcini. Infected males acquire a broader, longer and segmented abdomen, fringed with marginal setae. Copulatory appendages and pereopods are reduced in length, and the chelae become smaller. The feminization show great individual variation. Males with scars from lost externae, the parasites reproductive organ situated under the abdomen, are less modified than males carrying an externa, and the feminization is more pronounced in smaller than in larger males. No super-feminization is evident in female crabs that remain morphologically unaffected by infection. The protective value of a parasitically induced enlargement of the male abdomen may constitute an adaptation that increases parasite longevity. The additional effects on male morphology are viewed as pleiotropic side effects of the main adaptive value of enlarging the abdomen.     

Dispersal Constraints for Stream Invertebrates: Setting Realistic Timescales for Biodiversity Restoration

Biodiversity goals are becoming increasingly important in stream restoration. Typical models of stream restoration are based on the assumption that if habitat is restored then species will return and ecological processes will re-establish. However, a range of constraints at different scales can affect restoration success. Much of the research in stream restoration ecology has focused on habitat constraints, namely the in-stream and riparian conditions required to restore biota. Dispersal constraints are also integral to determining the timescales, trajectory and potential endpoints of a restored ecosystem. Dispersal is both a means of organism recolonization of restored sites and a vital ecological process that maintains viable populations. We review knowledge of dispersal pathways and explore the factors influencing stream invertebrate dispersal. From empirical and modeling studies of restoration in warm-temperate zones of New Zealand, we make predictions about the timescales of stream ecological restoration under differing levels of dispersal constraints. This process of constraints identification and timescale prediction is proposed as a practical step for resource managers to prioritize and appropriately monitor restoration sites and highlights that in some instances, natural recolonization and achievement of biodiversity goals may not occur.     

Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?

Forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. Using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamfiow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. We show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. Response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted R2 > 0.99). In all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. Observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. Converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme wet years decreased on average by sevenfold. This increased soil water storage may reduce flood risk in wet years, but create conditions that could exacerbate drought. Forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change; however, offsetting effects suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses of risk and vulnerability.     

The impact of the BP Baker report

Introduction

This study examined the impact of the British Petroleum (BP) Baker Panel Report, reviewing the March 2005 BP-Texas City explosion, on the field of process safety.

Method

Three hundred eighty-four subscribers of a process safety listserv responded to a survey two years after the BP Baker Report was published.

Results

Results revealed respondents in the field of process safety are familiar with the BP Baker Report, feel it is important to the future safety of chemical processing, and believe that the findings are generalizable to other plants beyond BP-Texas City. Respondents indicated that few organizations have administered the publicly available BP Process Safety Culture Survey. Our results also showed that perceptions of contractors varied depending on whether respondents were part of processing organizations (internal perspective) or government or consulting agencies (external perspective).

Conclusions

This research provides some insight into the beliefs of chemical processing personnel regarding the transportability and generalizability of lessons learned from one organization to another.

Impact on Industry

This study has implications for both organizational scientists and engineers in that it reveals perceptions about the primary mechanism used to share lessons learned within one industry about one major catastrophe (i.e., investigation reports). This study provides preliminary information about the perceived impact of a report such as this one.     

Thermal dependency of burrowing in three species within the bivalve genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Laternula</Emphasis>: a latitudinal comparison

The upper thermal limits for burrowing and survival were compared with micro-habitat temperature for anomalodesmatan clams: Laternula elliptica (Antarctica, 67°S); Laternula recta, (temperate Australia, 38°S) and Laternula truncata (tropical Singapore, 1°N). Lethal limits (LT₅₀) were higher than burrowing limits (BT₅₀) in L. elliptica (7.5–9.0 and 2.2°C) and L. recta (winter, 32.8–36.8 and 31.1–32.8°C) but the same range for L. truncata (33.0–35.0 and 33.4–34.9°C). L. elliptica and L. truncata had a BT₅₀ 0.4 and 2.4–3.9°C, respectively, above their maximum experienced temperature. L. recta, which experience solar heating during midday low tides, had a BT₅₀ 0.7–2.4°C below and a range for LT₅₀ that spanned their predicted environmental maximum (33.5°C). L. recta showed no seasonal difference in LT₅₀ or BT₅₀. Our single genus comparisons contrast with macrophysiological studies showing that temperate species cope better with elevated temperatures. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Network structure and parasite transmission in a group living lizard,the gidgee skink, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Egernia stokesii</Emphasis>

Gidgee skinks (Egernia stokesii) form large social aggregations in rocky outcrops across the Flinders Ranges in South Australia. Group members share refuges (rock crevices), which may promote parasite transmission. We measured connectivity of individuals in networks constructed from patterns of common crevice use and observed patterns of parasitism by three blood parasites (Hemolivia, Schellackia and Plasmodium) and an ectoparasitic tick (Amblyomma vikirri). Data came from a 1-year mark-recapture study of four populations. Transmission networks were constructed to represent possible transmission pathways among lizards. Two lizards that used the same refuge within an estimated transmission period were considered connected in the transmission network. An edge was placed between them, directed towards the individual that occupied the crevice last. Social networks, a sub-set of same-day only associations, were small and highly fragmented compared with transmission networks, suggesting that non-synchronous crevice use leads to more transmission opportunities than direct social association. In transmission networks, lizards infested by ticks were connected to more other tick-infested lizards than uninfected lizards. Lizards infected by ticks and carrying multiple blood parasite infections were in more connected positions in the network than lizards without ticks or with one or no blood parasites. Our findings suggest higher levels of network connectivity may increase the risk of becoming infected or that parasites influence lizard behaviour and consequently their position in the network. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. This contribution is part of the special issue “Social Networks: new perspectives” (Guest Editors: J. Krause, D. Lusseau and R. James).     

Ten years of varying lake level and selection on size-at-maturity in sockeye salmon

Despite the ubiquity of studies quantifying the strength and form of selection in nature, rarely is the ecological context for contemporary selection understood. Here we report a case where lake level is a selective factor acting on sockeye salmon body size-at-maturity because low lake levels cause large salmon to strand and die rather than reach the breeding grounds. As a result of a semelparous life history, death for salmon at this stage results in a lifetime fitness of zero. We combined information on the level of Lake Aleknagik (southwestern Alaska, USA) from 1952 through 2006 with a detailed comparison of the body size of mature salmon that died at the mouth of Hansen Creek vs. individuals that successfully ascended to the spawning grounds over 10 breeding seasons (1997-2006). The percentage of salmon stranding at the mouth varied among years: 2-42% in males and < 1-26% in females. Formal selection analyses indicated that the largest individuals were most susceptible to stranding mortality, especially in years when many salmon stranded, and these were years with low lake levels. Taken together, these results suggest that lake level was a strong and consistent selective force acting on this salmon population, acting synergistically with size-selective predation by bears. Salmon breeding in Hansen Creek tend to be smaller, younger, and more streamlined than conspecifics from neighboring populations, suggesting that selection against large individuals could be driving these patterns.     

Quantitative approaches to the analysis of stable isotope food web data

Ecologists use stable isotopes (delta13C, delta15N) to better understand food webs and explore trophic interactions in ecosystems. Traditionally, delta13C vs. delta15N bi-plots have been used to describe food web structure for a single time period or ecosystem. Comparisons of food webs across time and space are increasing, but development of statistical approaches for testing hypotheses regarding food web change has lagged behind. Here we present statistical methodologies for quantitatively comparing stable isotope food web data. We demonstrate the utility of circular statistics and hypothesis tests for quantifying directional food web differences using two case studies: an arthropod salt marsh community across a habitat gradient and a freshwater fish community from Lake Tahoe, USA, over a 120-year time period. We calculated magnitude and mean angle of change (theta) for each species in food web space using mean delta13C and delta15N of each species as the x, y coordinates. In the coastal salt marsh, arthropod consumers exhibited a significant shift toward dependence on Spartina, progressing from a habitat invaded by Phragmites to a restored Spartina habitat. In Lake Tahoe, we found that all species from the freshwater fish community shifted in the same direction in food web space toward more pelagic-based production with the introduction of nonnative Mysis relicta and onset of cultural eutrophication. Using circular statistics to quantitatively analyze stable isotope food web data, we were able to gain significant insight into patterns and changes in food web structure that were not evident from qualitative comparisons. As more ecologists incorporate a food web perspective into ecosystem analysis, these statistical tools can provide a basis for quantifying directional food web differences from standard isotope data.     

Extinction rate of discovered and undiscovered plants in Singapore

Extinction is a key issue in the assessment of global biodiversity. However, many extinction rate measures do not account for species that went extinct before they could be discovered. The highly developed island city–state of Singapore has one of the best-documented tropical floras in the world. This allowed us to estimate the total rate of floristic extinctions in Singapore since 1822 after accounting for sampling effort and crypto extinctions by collating herbaria records. Our database comprised 34,224 specimens from 2076 native species, of which 464 species (22%) were considered nationally extinct. We assumed that undiscovered species had the same annual per-species extinction rates as discovered species and that no undiscovered species remained extant. With classical and Bayesian algorithms, we estimated that 304 (95% confidence interval, 213–414) and 412 (95% credible interval, 313–534) additional species went extinct before they could be discovered, respectively; corresponding total extinction rate estimates were 32% and 35% (range 30–38%). We detected violations of our 2 assumptions that could cause our extinction estimates, particularly the absolute numbers, to be biased downward. Thus, our estimates should be treated as lower bounds. Our results illustrate the possible magnitudes of plant extirpations that can be expected in the tropics as development continues.