GENERATING FARM DESCRIPTIONS IN A WATERSHED FROM INCOMPLETE DATA USING SIMULATED ANNEALING1

ABSTRACT: A fundamental problem faced in developing spatially explicit, simulation‐based analyses of watershed management and policy options is determining the distribution and spatial location of agricultural resources within a watershed based on incomplete information. This paper describes the use of simulated annealing, a heuristic scheduling process, to generate an assignment of all livestock and agricultural fields in a watershed to hypothetical farms such that the combined distribution of farm types, livestock, and farmland within the watershed is a reasonable representation of watershed‐level data. Compared to a manual method using GIS‐based analysis and data from aerial photography, the heuristic method was more likely to generate realistic spatial characterizations of the distribution of agricultural resources and practices in a watershed. Also compared to the manual method, the heuristic process was considerably more efficient and could more easily accommodate multiple criteria and modifications to those criteria.     

A STRIP MODEL APPROACH TO PARAMETERIZE A COUPLED GREEN‐AMPT KINEMATIC WAVE MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Infiltration processes at the plot scale are often described and modeled using a single effective hydraulic conductivity (Kg) value. This can lead to errors in runoff and erosion prediction. An integrated field measurement and modeling study was conducted to evaluate: (1) the relationship among rainfall intensity, spatially variable soil and vegetation characteristics, and infiltration processes; and (2) how this relationship could be modeled using Green and Ampt and a spatially distributed hydrologic model. Experiments were conducted using a newly developed variable intensity rainfall simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots in a rangeland watershed in southeastern Arizona. Rainfall application rates varied between 50 and 200 mm/hr. Results of the rainfall simulator experiments showed that the observed hydrologic response changed with changes in rainfall intensity and that the response varied with antecedent moisture condition. A distributed process based hydrologic simulation model was used to model the plots at different levels of hydrologic complexity. The measurement and simulation model results show that the rainfall runoff relationship cannot be accurately described or modeled using a single Kg value at the plot scale. Multi‐plane model configurations with infiltration parameters based on soil and plot characteristics resulted in a significant improvement over single‐plane configurations.     

Measuring visual opacity using digital imaging technology

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Reference Method 9 (Method 9) is the preferred enforcement approach for verifying facility compliance with federal visible opacity standards. Supporters of Method 9 have cited its flexibility and low cost as important technological and economic advantages of the methodology. The Digital Opacity Compliance System (DOCS), an innovative technology that employs digital imaging technology for quantifying visible opacity, has been proposed as a technically defensible and economically competitive alternative to Method 9. Results from the field application of the DOCS at EPA-approved Method 9 smoke schools located in Ogden, UT, Augusta, GA, and Columbus, OH, demonstrated that, under clear sky conditions, the DOCS consistently met the opacity error rate established under Method 9. Application of hypothesis testing on the smoke school data set confirmed that the DOCS was equivalent to Method 9 under clear sky conditions. Under overcast sky conditions, human observers seemed to be more accurate than the DOCS in measuring opacity. However, within the smoke school environment, human observers routinely employ backgrounds other than sky (e.g., trees, telephone poles, billboards) to quantify opacity on overcast days. Under conditions that compel the use of sky as plume background (e.g., emission stacks having heights above the tree line), the DOCS appears to be a more accurate methodology for quantifying opacity than are human observers.     

Evaluating the Impacts of Environmental Flow Alternatives on Reservoir and Recreational Operations Using System Dynamics Modeling

Providing environmental flows is increasingly a management obligation in many water resource systems. Evaluating the impacts of environmental flow alternatives on other water uses in a basin can be a challenge, especially when collaborating with stakeholders. We demonstrate the use of system dynamics (SD) modeling to assess the impacts of four environmental flow alternatives in the Rio Chama, New Mexico. The model was developed to examine impacts of each alternative on reservoir storage and releases, hydropower production and revenue, and whitewater boating access. We simulated each alternative within a stochastic framework in order to explicitly incorporate hydrologic uncertainty into the analyses. The environmental flow alternatives were developed at a collaborative workshop of geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology experts. Results from the model indicate that the proposed flow recommendations on the Rio Chama will generally decrease annual reservoir storage, increase median flows, and have minimal impacts on hydropower production and whitewater rafting on the system. The Rio Chama case study is a promising example of how SD modeling can be used in the early stages of environmental flow studies and why it is compatible with collaborative modeling.     

Genetic differentiation among matrilines in social groups of rhesus monkeys

Summary In rhesus monkey populations, animals related by descent to some female comprise a matriline or genealogy. Data on blood protein polymorphisms in the Cayo Santiago rhesus colony indicate that allele frequency variations among matrilines in social groups are large. These variations occur despite high levels of outbreeding. Computer simulation analyses indicate that pedigree or linear effect account for much of the observed genetic differentiation among genealogies. A sampling with correlation model in which genealogy sizes and average kinship levels are parameters predicts among matriline genetic differentiation. This study indicates that substantial genetic substructure is present within rhesus social groups. Our analyses also predict that large variances in allele frequencies should be common among social or trait groups based on kinship relationships.     

Evaluation of the digital opacity compliance system in high mountain desert environments

The digital opacity compliance system (DOCS) has been proposed as an alternative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Reference Method 9 (Visual Determination of the Opacity of Emissions for Stationary Sources). The DOCS, which employs standard digital photography to estimate the opacity of visible emissions, was evaluated in a high mountain desert environment located in Weber County, UT. The DOCS recorded an average opacity deviation of 5.28% when applied to black smoke plumes having true opacities in the range of 0-100%, an error rate that was found to be significantly less than 7.5% (allowable error rate for attaining certification under Method 9). In contrast, results from estimating the opacity of white smoke plumes indicated that the accuracy of the DOCS was less than the Method 9 error rate only in the opacity range of 0-60%, over which the DOCS average opacity deviation was determined to be 6.7%. For the 0-40% opacity range, the DOCS recorded an average opacity deviation of 5.44% and 5.9% for black and white plumes, respectively. Results from the present study suggest that the DOCS has the potential to quantify visible opacity with an error rate that is significantly less than the Method 9 permissible error rate. Although encouraging, it is unclear to what extent the DOCS is affected by climatic conditions other than those encountered in a dry desert environment. Future studies should focus on evaluating the performance of the DOCS under variable weather conditions.     

Nutrient run-off following application of livestock wastes to grassland

Three types of farm waste (cattle slurry, dirty water and farm yard manure (FYM)) were applied to hydrologically isolated grassland plots on a sloping poorly draining soil. Two applications were made, the first in October and the second in February. Application rates were 50 m(3) ha(-1) of slurry and dirty water and 50 t ha(-1) of FYM. Volumes of run-off following rainfall events and concentrations of N, P and K in run-off were measured. Losses of nutrients were higher following applications made with the soil at field capacity and rainfall soon after application. In terms of percentage loss of applied nutrients, losses were generally low. Concentration of N in run-off from the dirty water and FYM treated plots following the first application and the slurry treated plots following the second application exceeded 11.3 mg dm(-3) (a recommended limit for drinking water) although the maximum concentration recorded was 15 mg dm(-3) following FYM application. Concentration of P in run-off only exceeded 1 mg dm(-3) following the second application of cattle slurry. Concentration of K exceeded 10 mg dm(-3) following the first application of FYM and the second application of cattle slurry.     

Precision And Accuracy Of Pest And Pathogen Damage Assessment In Young Eucalypt Plantations

Fungal pathogens, browsing mammals, birds, insects, nutrient deficiencies, drought, frost and waterlogging are all damaging agents to plantation species. The subsequent loss in leaf tissue or reduced photosynthetic potential can reduce growth and potentially lead to tree death. The Crown Damage Index (CDI) was developed in Australia to quantify damage in young eucalypt plantations. The accuracy and precision of assessing damage at a tree level were determined to ensure the reliability, objectivity and repeatability of the CDI method. Nine assessors, with varying levels of experience, estimated damage on three plots of fifty trees each, to obtain an understanding of the subjectivity of assessing damage caused by insects (e.g. Chrysophtharta spp.) and fungal pathogens (e.g. Mycosphaerella spp.) on Eucalyptus globulus. Damage levels were measured by destructive sampling to enable direct comparisons between estimates and damage levels to be made. The most experienced assessors provided the most repeatable estimates and were generally the most accurate. The incidence of foliar necrosis was the least subjective measure while defoliation was the most subjective and the least accurate of the indices measured. All assessors, regardless of experience, were able to predict the Crown Damage Index (a combined index of all damage classes) to within 12% of measured damage levels.     

REGULATED RIVER MODELING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT: THE MISSOURI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The Great Plains of the United States, drained primanly by the Missouri River, are very sensitive to shifts in climate. The six main stem dams on the Missouri River control more than one‐half of the nearly 1.5 million square kilometer basin and can store three times the annual inflow from upstream. The dams are operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers using a Master Manual that describes system priorities and benefits. The complex operational rules were incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool computer model (SWAT). SWAT is a distributed parameter rainfall‐runoff model capable of simulating the transpiration suppression effects of CO₂ enrichment. The new reservoir algorithms were calibrated using a 25‐year long historic record of basin climate and discharge records. Results demonstrate that it is possible to incorporate the operation of a highly regulated river system into a complex rainfall‐runoff model. The algorithms were then tested using extreme climate scenarios indicative of a prolonged drought, a short drought, and a ten percent increase in basin‐wide precipitation. It is apparent that the rules for operating the reservoirs will likely require modification if, for example, upper‐basin precipitation were to increase only ten percent under changed climate conditions.