Modelling the global cycle of carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus and their influence on the global heat balance

A model for the accumulation of CO₂ in the atmosphere has been set up, taking into consideration: (1) the global cycle of nitrogen and phosphorus: (2) the CO₂-diffusion in the oceans with means of a multilayer ?ea model; (3) the ability of the oceans to take up CO₂; (4) the influence of the CO₂-concentrations and of the temperature on this ability; (5) different growth rates for the consumption of fossil fuel including logistic growth; (6) the natural climatic variation.It is shown to be essential to include all these factors. The inclusion of factors (4) and (6), which have been omitted in many previous publications, is very essential to the model.     

Biomagnification of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) studied in pike (Esox lucius), perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus) from the Baltic Sea

Pike, perch and roach from rural waters of the Baltic Sea were investigated for possible biomagnification of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). For this we used data on delta15N, weight and sex of the fish. We were able to separate body size effects from trophic position effects on biomagnification. Both these parameters lead to biomagnification of PCBs and PBDEs. All investigated PCBs (tri- to deca-CBs) biomagnify and the biomagnification potential is positively correlated with hydrophobicity up to log Kow 8.18. Tri- to hepta-BDEs also biomagnify but showed a maximum biomagnification for the penta-BDEs (log Kow 6.46-6.97). The biomagnification of hexa- to hepta-PBDEs was negatively correlated with degree of bromination, likely due to large molecular size or high molecular weight (644-959 Da). Octa-, nona- and deca-BDEs did not biomagnify but were found in two (octa-BDE) and three (nona- and deca-BDEs) of the species, respectively. Increased size of pike is correlated with increased lipid weight based PCB and PBDE concentrations in males but not in females and mean PCB and PBDE concentrations in males are generally higher than in females. For the least hydrophobic PCBs, no sex difference is observed, probably as a consequence of faster clearance of these substances over the gills, making the spawning clearance of PCBs and PBDEs of lesser relative importance.     

An object-oriented software for fate and exposure assessments

The model system CemoS¹ (Chemical Exposure Model System) was developed for the exposure prediction of hazardous chemicals released to the environment. Eight different models were implemented involving chemicals fate simulation in air, water, soil and plants after continuous or single emissions from point and diffuse sources. Scenario studies are supported by a substance and an environmental data base. All input data are checked on their plausibility. Substance and environmental process estimation functions facilitate generic model calculations. CemoS is implemented in a modular structure using object-oriented programming. e-mail: cemos@aphrodite.mathematik.uni-osnabrueck.de     

Effects on the function of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Historically, the function of Arctic ecosystems in terms of cycles of nutrients and carbon has led to low levels of primary production and exchanges of energy, water and greenhouse gases have led to low local and regional cooling. Sequestration of carbon from atmospheric CO2, in extensive, cold organic soils and the high albedo from low, snow-covered vegetation have had impacts on regional climate. However, many aspects of the functioning of Arctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate and its impacts on biodiversity. The current Arctic climate results in slow rates of organic matter decomposition. Arctic ecosystems therefore tend to accumulate organic matter and elements despite low inputs. As a result, soil-available elements like nitrogen and phosphorus are key limitations to increases in carbon fixation and further biomass and organic matter accumulation. Climate warming is expected to increase carbon and element turnover, particularly in soils, which may lead to initial losses of elements but eventual, slow recovery. Individual species and species diversity have clear impacts on element inputs and retention in Arctic ecosystems. Effects of increased CO2 and UV-B on whole ecosystems, on the other hand, are likely to be small although effects on plant tissue chemisty, decomposition and nitrogen fixation may become important in the long-term. Cycling of carbon in trace gas form is mainly as CO2 and CH4. Most carbon loss is in the form of CO2, produced by both plants and soil biota. Carbon emissions as methane from wet and moist tundra ecosystems are about 5% of emissions as CO2 and are responsive to warming in the absence of any other changes. Winter processes and vegetation type also affect CH4 emissions as well as exchanges of energy between biosphere and atmosphere. Arctic ecosystems exhibit the largest seasonal changes in energy exchange of any terrestrial ecosystem because of the large changes in albedo from late winter, when snow reflects most incoming radiation, to summer when the ecosystem absorbs most incoming radiation. Vegetation profoundly influences the water and energy exchange of Arctic ecosystems. Albedo during the period of snow cover declines from tundra to forest tundra to deciduous forest to evergreen forest. Shrubs and trees increase snow depth which in turn increases winter soil temperatures. Future changes in vegetation driven by climate change are therefore, very likely to profoundly alter regional climate.     

基本原理,概念及评估办法

引言 人们普遍认为,全球气候变暖在北极将进一步放大,由于平流层臭氧修复的可能延误,紫外线B(UV-B)辐射可能继续增加,北极环境及其居民可能特别易受这类环境变化的影响.上述共识促进了对气候变化影响的国际评估工作.北极气候影响评估(ACIA)是一项为时4年的研究,结果出版了一篇重要的科研报告[1]并产生了其他的成果.在本文以及本期Ambio专刊下面的文章中,我们提供了报告中针对北极陆地生态系统(从树线群落交错带到极地荒漠)的部分研究成果.