Recursive residuals and model diagnostics for normal and non-normal state space models

Model diagnostics for normal and non-normal state space models are based on recursive residuals which are defined from the one-step ahead predictive distribution. Routine calculation of these residuals is discussed in detail. Various diagnostic tools are suggested to check, for example, for wrong observation distributions and for autocorrelation. The paper also discusses such topics as model diagnostics for discrete time series and model discrimination via Bayes factors. The case studies cover environmental applications such as analysing a time series of the number of daily rainfall occurrences and a time series of daily sulfur dioxide emissions.     

Copper ecotoxicology of marine algae: a methodological appraisal

The production of accurate and reliable data on copper ecotoxicology of marine algae depends on the use of trace metal clean techniques during experimentation. We reviewed the methodologies used in the literature on copper ecotoxicology of marine macro- and microalgae, specifically the use of trace metal clean procedures such as the labware used (glassware vs. plasticware), methods of cleaning the labware (acid soaking and ultrapure water rinsing), stock solution preparation (copper source and acidification), and measurement and reporting of dissolved copper concentrations. In terms of taxonomic classification, the most studied algal groups were the Phyla Ochrophyta, Bacillariophyta, Rhodophyta, and Chlorophyta. In terms of methodology, ～50% of the articles did not specify the labware, ～25% used glassware, and ～25% plasticware; ～30% of the studies specified cleaning protocols for labware to remove trace metal impurities; the copper form used to prepare the stock solutions was specified in ～80% of studies but acidification to stabilise the dissolved copper was performed in only ～20%; and the dissolved copper concentration was measured in only ～40% of studies. We discuss the importance of following trace metal clean techniques for the comparison and interpretation of data obtained on copper ecotoxicology in algae.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

Modelling of spatio-temporal population dynamics of earthworms under wetland conditions—An integrated approach

Both the effects of earthworms on soils and the effects of soil conditions on earthworms have been studied with the help of experiments and modelling. This paper provides a model architecture allowing coupling both effects to a dynamic interaction in changing environmental conditions. We chose for a spatio-temporally explicit model and focussed on wetland conditions. Soil temperature and humidity have been modelled by means of finite volumes and were used to determine the spatial habitat suitability. The life cycles of earthworms have been modelled by Leslie matrices where soil humidity, soil temperature and population densities have been used to parametrize survival and transition probabilities. Earthworm dispersion has been described by a cellular automaton of the domain providing spatial population densities for both the life cycle submodel and the soil conditions submodel.     

Interactions between two introduced species: Zostera japonica (dwarf eelgrass) facilitates itself and reduces condition of Ruditapes philippinarum (Manila clam) on intertidal flats

Dwarf eelgrass (duckgrass; Zostera japonica) and Manila clams (Ruditapes philippinarum) are two introduced species that co-occur on intertidal flats of the northeast Pacific. Through factorial manipulation of clam (0, 62.5, 125 clams m⁻²) and eelgrass density (present, removed by hand, harrowed), we examined intra- and interspecific effects on performance, as well as modification of the physical environment. The presence of eelgrass reduced water flow by up to 40% and was also observed to retain water at low tide, which may ameliorate desiccation and explain why eelgrass grew faster in the presence of conspecifics (positive feedback). Although shell growth of small (20–50 mm) clams was not consistently affected by either treatment in this 2-month experiment, clam condition improved when eelgrass was removed. Reciprocally, clams at aquaculture densities had no effect on eelgrass growth, clam growth and condition, or porewater nutrients. Overall, only Z. japonica demonstrated strong population-level interactions. Interspecific results support an emerging paradigm that invasive marine ecosystem engineers often negatively affect infauna. Positive feedbacks for Z. japonica may characterize its intraspecific effects particularly at the stressful intertidal elevation of this study (+1 m above mean lower low water).     

How Stable are Public Responses to Changing Local Environments? A 'Before' and 'After' Case Study of River Restoration

This paper considers the stability of public responses to an urban river restoration scheme on the River Skerne, Darlington, UK, by comparing the results from surveys of local residents carried out before and after scheme implementation. This case study provides evidence of strong and generally consistent positive responses to the proposals and implemented scheme to return the straightened and channelized river to a more natural condition although support was more qualified after than before implementation. Although the scheme design and construction costs were high, nearly two-thirds regarded the scheme as value for money. Exploratory contingent valuation results on whether or not local residents were prepared to pay for the scheme were broadly stable over the two surveys.     

外源氧化铁对水稻土甲烷形成的抑制

通过添加不同氧化铁的土壤泥浆厌氧恒温养实验发现，无定形氧化铁和纤铁矿能显著的降低水稻土中的H2和乙酸浓度，并导致甲烷形成被抑制，易还原氧化铁可使H2的稳态浓度由对照的2－4mg/m^3降低到0．3－1.0mg/m^3，并使得体系的Gibb's自由能（△GH）增大到－10kJ/mol，从而有效地抑制了依赖H2营养的产甲烷过程，添加氧化铁同样能消耗体系中的乙酸，使乙酸浓度明显低于对照，但对依赖乙醇营养的△GAc的影响不显著。     

Population dynamics,delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong,Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges–Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.     

Everyday vulnerabilities and “social dispositions” in the Malian Sahel,an indication for evaluating future adaptability to water crises?

Since the 1970s, precipitation in the Sahel has decreased and become very irregular, leading to widespread drought, whilst the human need for water has rapidly increased. A new “dispositions”-based approach was adapted in order to analyse human interactions with environmental hazards and applied to the case of Hombori village in north-eastern Mali. This article explores how the population and political stakeholders perceive, live with and respond to the increasing scarcity of water. It also explores how their current vulnerability and ability to cope with variations in available water resources indicate future adaptability to climate shocks. On the one hand, this research shows how the population copes with variations in water resource availability: the population’s socio-spatial organisation explains the inhabitants’ exposure to this problem and some of the factors affecting vulnerability, the elderly and women being the hardest hit. The water issue is generally managed on a “day-to-day” basis and considered a big problem only in the dry season, thus lowering any incentive for self-protection. The main two variables that could explain this kind of risk management are the conflicting local governance and current social rules. On the other hand, the discussion of results, based on a conceptual model of social responses, explains why these current “social dispositions” to cope with and even address the water scarcity issue do not guarantee future adaptability to climate change.