Extensions of stochastic multiscenario models for long-range planning under uncertainty

In the twenty-first century, the goals of mankind are evolving from rising prosperity to attaining long-range sustainable survival in an acceptable state. Such change will lead to a paradigm shift predicted by Thomas Kuhn. This situation motivates two novel generalized systems, Risk-Constrained Optimization (RCO) and its derivative, Risk-Constrained Optimization/Decision Network (RCO/DN). RCO aims for flexible and robust strategies across large ranges of scenarios and risks. It assumes that for any “serious” (complex and long-range) planning and decision-making problem, externalities are important and uncertainty is radical. Therefore, it rejects the very concept of the correct or the best strategy, replacing it with a strategy that is the most acceptable to decision-maker(s). RCO considers decision-support systems, models, and algorithms to be tools of analysis, rather than methods of selection of the best. It replaces the artificial and risky paradigm of maximization by a cautious natural and evolutionary paradigm of catastrophe avoidance. RCO filters out the worst and riskiest candidate strategies, leaving for judgmental selection a small set of flexible, robust, and reasonably safe strategies. For that purpose, RCO employs enhanced stochastic multiscenario (ESMS) models, transforming them into optimizing filters. It is important that this operation is achieved in accordance with a new principle—changing the overall solution by affecting the values of scenario-specific, rather than general, outcome variables. Furthermore, RCO screens decisions and strategies by several synthetic criteria in a framework of novel strategic frontiers. Thus, RCO embeds ESMS into an ensemble of mutually supporting risk management techniques, legitimizing high-level analytical use of a computer plus optimization model combination.     

Reductive dechlorination of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins by zerovalent iron in subcritical water

A new method for reductive dechlorination of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and remediation of contaminated soils is described that uses zerovalent iron as the dechlorination agent and subcritical water as reaction medium and extractive solvent. It is found that the zerovalent iron can be applied for stepwise dechlorination of octachlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (OCDD) on various matrixes in subcritical water. By using iron powder as matrix higher chlorinated congeners were practically completely reduced to less than tetra-substituted homologues. A significant part of residual OCDD, when it was spiked in to soils, and formed less chlorinated congeners are extracted with water in the given conditions. The solubility of OCDD was increased by a 4–6 orders over its solubility at ambient conditions. The new method of contentious-flow extraction is described.     

Persistent organochlorine contaminants in human tissues of the Czech and Slovak populations

The persistence of lipophilic organochlorine substances leads to their incorporation into the food chain and subsequent uptake by humans. Due to their use in the past, Czech and Slovak countries belong to the countries with a relatively high body burden of organochlorines. Levels of PCBs in human tissues based on the congener‐specific analysis are reported in this paper. Samples were analysed for the most abundant PCB congeners. Prevalent persistent organochlorine pesticides and their isomers/metabolites have also been included. The present study is focused on following areas: i) distribution of analysed substances in the various human tissue samples from selected regions of the Czech and Slovak Republic and ii) comparison with the results from other foreign and local studies.     

Instream and offstream environmental conditions and stream biotic integrity: Importance of scale and site similarities for learning and prediction

Two different methods to predict biotic integrity were tested and compared in the present paper. The first one tries to predict the fish indices of biotic integrity (IBI) at the state or regional scale based on the most similar observations to a specific target site of interest using the simple to implement k-nearest neighbors (or kNN) method. Two different distance functions were considered to find the k-nearest neighbors: the Euclidean and the Mahalanobis. The second method was applied on the same datasets and consisted of a step-wise multiple regression. The two modeling approaches yielded similar results but kNN proved to be more time-efficient and very fast computationally for the given dataset sizes, which allowed applying a leave-one-out cross validation.In an attempt to reveal the importance of scale in the prediction of IBI, regression models were constructed at the state (or regional) scale and at the more refined cluster of sampling sites scale. Clusters of sites were extracted using Kohonen's self-organizing maps (SOM) followed by k-means clustering of the SOM neurons. Cluster-level regression models, constructed after site patterning, performed better in IBI prediction than global regression models constructed without any previous site patterning. The importance of identifying groups of sites with similar environmental characteristics affecting the IBI was revealed. The combined use of site patterning and regression modeling for IBI prediction also helped identifying important variables acting at the local scale which remain latent at the global scale.     

Ontogeny of early diving and foraging behavior of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) pups from Bering Island,Russia

The ontogeny of diving and foraging behavior of northern fur seal pups from a stable population on Bering Island, Russia, was recorded with animal-borne instruments during their first few months at sea, a critical period during their first year at sea. Thirty-five pups were instrumented with satellite-linked time-depth recorders and stomach temperature pills. Diving occurred predominantly at night with deeper and longer dives as the pups matured. Mean dive depths were correlated with lunar illumination, whereas mean dive durations were also correlated with time of day and sex. Foraging success did not differ between sexes, and there was no relationship between meal size (as indicated by feeding event duration and minimum stomach temperature) and lunar illumination fraction or maximum foraging depth. Although most pups were able to successfully forage within 3 days of starting their migration, the number of feeding events recorded each day remained low (mean 1.6 events day^?1). There was no indication of an appreciable increase in meal size after the first 2 weeks of the migration despite an increase in dive frequency and depth. The results are consistent with observations that pups do not gain mass during their first year and emphasize the risk of starvation from infrequent foraging in cold water.     

Measurement and evaluation of the environmental noise levels in the urban areas of the city of Nis (Serbia)

The environmental noise level represents one of the key factors of life quality in urban areas of modern cities. A continuous monitoring of the noise levels and the analysis of results have become a necessity when we discuss a possible recovery of those areas with high levels of noise pollution, and particularly, those zones which were designed for specific activities, e.g., areas around hospitals and schools. The city of Nis, Serbia, owing to the permanent long-term noise monitoring, possesses a database containing figures related to the noise levels at relevant locations in the city, which can serve as a basis for an analysis of the change of conditions, their tendencies in the future, and recognizing factors which influence the danger of noise pollution. The paper involves an analysis of the environmental noise level collected during the previous years.     

Biogeochemical assessment of the urban area in Moscow

The biogeochemical and ecological assessment of the industrial city territory including urban soils and trees was carried out. Chemical (macroelement and microelement) composition of the city soils, morphological and biochemical properties of the linden leaves, possible impact of de-icing salts on soil and tree state, the correlation between the content of trace elements, and the S-containing plant compounds (phytochelatins) were included in the assessment. It was found that concentrations of trace elements in the soils near road with intensive traffic are changed from the soils, located at a distance of 40–50 m from the road. They have higher concentrations of As, Fe, Mn, Se, and Sr and lower concentration of Zn. The linden leaves from the roadside were characterized by the increase in As, Cu, Fe, Zn, and Cr and sharp decrease in the Mn and Sr concentrations. The analysis of soil water extracts showed a slight decrease of pH and low content of Ca, Mg, K, and Na for the distant sites. The phytochelatin test of linden leaves was weakly effective as well as asymmetry degree study of leaf lamina. The main differences were observed in the damage symptoms of leaves (chlorosis and necrosis) and the content of pigments (chlorophyll and carotenoids). The biochemical and ecological assessment of soils and trees showed relatively satisfactory ecological state of the investigated area in Moscow. The data obtained shows the weak local impact of the application of de-icing salts and automobile emissions.     

Economic,social and environmental dimension of sustainable competitiveness of European countries

Over the last decade, promotion of competitiveness represents one of the central goals of economic policy of most of the countries. Moreover, in recent years, the promotion of competitiveness has been seen as a way of achieving desirable changes in economy and society. While there is no unity of views in the theory regarding the conceptual definition of the phenomenon of competitiveness, it is becoming less arguable that in strictly economic terms, competitiveness is a synonym for productivity. However, it should be noted that productivity growth that is accompanied by increasing social imbalance (for example, inequality in income distribution), on the one hand, and environmental pollution, on the other hand, cannot be a guarantee of improving the competitiveness of countries in the long run. Acknowledging precisely this fact and using the data from World Economic Forum on Global Competitiveness 2013, this paper elaborates on the phenomenon of sustainable competitiveness and tests the hypothesis about the positive impact of its social and environmental dimension on the economic dimension of sustainable competitiveness that is represented by the value of the Global Competitiveness Index. The survey of 34 countries confirmed the indisputable positive impact of the social dimension of sustainability, but also variable direction of the impact of the environmental dimension of sustainability (depending on the level of GDP per capita) on the economic dimension of sustainable competitiveness of European countries in 2013.     

Biodegradation of polystyrene-graft-starch copolymers in three different types of soil

Materials based on polystyrene and starch copolymers are used in food packaging, water pollution treatment, and textile industry, and their biodegradability is a desired characteristic. In order to examine the degradation patterns of modified, biodegradable derivates of polystyrene, which may keep its excellent technical features but be more environmentally friendly at the same time, polystyrene-graft-starch biomaterials obtained by emulsion polymerization in the presence of new type of initiator/activator pair (potassium persulfate/different amines) were subjected to 6-month biodegradation by burial method in three different types of commercially available soils: soil rich in humus and soil for cactus and orchid growing. Biodegradation was monitored by mass decrease, and the highest degradation rate was achieved in soil for cactus growing (81.30 %). Statistical analysis proved that microorganisms in different soil samples have different ability of biodegradation, and there is a significant negative correlation between the share of polystyrene in copolymer and degree of biodegradation. Grafting of polystyrene on starch on one hand prevents complete degradation of starch that is present (with maximal percentage of degraded starch ranging from 55 to 93 %), while on the other hand there is an upper limit of share of polystyrene in the copolymer (ranging from 37 to 77 %) that is preventing biodegradation of degradable part of copolymers.