An ecosystem model for estimating potential shellfish culture production in sheltered coastal waters

A generic ecosystem model has been developed for estimating the potential production of shellfish culture and the effect of that cultivation on the pelagic ecosystem in sheltered coastal waters. The model describes the dynamics of a simple food web, nutrient cycling and growth of shellfish. The design of the model is closely tied to the temporal and spatial scales that are important in determining the sustainable production level for a particular embayment. The pelagic ecosystem, mussel energetics, population dynamics and hydrodynamics are coupled to allow fully dynamic predictions of the effect of the shellfish density. When applied to Beatrix Bay, an intensive culture embayment in the Pelorus Sound of New Zealand, the model successfully captured main features of the observed system behaviour. The hydrodynamic regime of the bay controls mussel growth and production. Although high fluxes of water into the bay suppress nutrient and carbon cycling signals in the system, the model simulations demonstrated that the mussel cultivation can have considerable effects on the ecosystem of the bay including food depletion and nutrient cycling. One of the most obvious effects is nutrient enhancement through mussel excretion at low cultivation densities, which promotes primary production particularly during the N-limitation period in summer. The sensitivity analysis identified uncertainty in some parameters and indicated areas for which experimental studies could lead to model improvement. The modelling exercise has established a primary predictive tool for managing mussel aquaculture of a coastal embayment to estimate relationships between the stock level and the growth rate of mussels, and the potentially achievable harvest and stocking density.     

What happens when you trust your supervisor? Mediators of individual performance in trust relationships

To understand how trust in supervisor translates into individual job performance, we hypothesize that trust in supervisor facilitates positive psychological conditions of meaningfulness, safety, and availability, which in turn predict individual job performance. We assert that each of the three mediating paths in our model represents a distinct mechanism by which trust in supervisor contributes to individual job performance. We test our hypotheses with 206 supervisor–subordinate dyads and find that trust in supervisor contributes to job performance through psychological availability and psychological safety but not psychological meaningfulness. By examining three different psychological mechanisms within the same frame, we provide a test that compares and contrasts the uniqueness of the three pathways. Our findings suggest practical ways for managers to build trust with subordinates and guidance for the design of productive work conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Establishing the green neighbourhood: approaches to neighbourhood-scale sustainability certification in Portland,Oregon

ABSTRACT

While local governance is widely acknowledged as an important element in the pursuit of sustainability, local action alone is insufficient to produce lasting change. One recent solution to this quandary has been the production of certification frameworks that encourage sustainable development at the neighbourhood scale by providing local actors with standardised definitions of sustainable practices. While these frameworks facilitate the spread of sustainable development strategies between local communities, there are significant contrasts between their approaches to encouraging local sustainable development that simultaneously fulfils global objectives. This article explores these contrasts through two neighbourhood-scale sustainability certification frameworks: LEED for Neighborhood Development (LEED-ND) and the EcoDistricts Protocol. Analysis of these frameworks in the context of two centrally-located neighbourhoods in Portland, Oregon, reveals substantial contrasts between the two frameworks in terms of the relative flexibility of their sustainability metrics, the time frame over which decisions regarding sustainable development are made, and community involvement in the process of pursuing specific objectives. Furthermore, it suggests that greater flexibility in the application of standards, continuous governance, and greater community involvement lead to more dynamic and holistic forms of sustainability that evolve as both local community needs and broader understandings of sustainability change over time.     

Incorporating low-resolution historic species location data decreases performance of distribution models

Developing robust species distribution models is important as model outputs are increasingly being incorporated into conservation policy and management decisions. A largely overlooked component of model assessment and refinement is whether to include historic species occurrence data in distribution models to increase the data sample size. Data of different temporal provenance often differ in spatial accuracy and precision. We test the effect of inclusion of historic coarse-resolution occurrence data on distribution model outputs for 187 species of birds in Australian tropical savannas. Models using only recent (after 1990), fine-resolution data had significantly higher model performance scores measured with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than models incorporating both fine- and coarse-resolution data. The drop in AUC score is positively correlated with the total area predicted to be suitable for the species (R² = 0.163-0.187, depending on the environmental predictors in the model), as coarser data generally leads to greater predicted areas. The remaining unexplained variation is likely to be due to the covariate errors resulting from resolution mismatch between species records and environmental predictors. We conclude that decisions regarding data use in species distribution models must be conscious of the variation in predictions that mixed-scale datasets might cause.     

Darwin’s “tug-of-war” vs. starlings’ “horse-racing”: how adaptations for sequential encounters drive simultaneous choice

Charles Darwin aided his private decision making by an explicit deliberation, famously deciding whether or not to marry by creating a list of points in a table with two columns: “Marry” and “Not Marry”. One hundred seventy-two years after Darwin’s wedding, we reconsider whether this process of choice, under which individuals assign values to their options and compare their relative merits at the time of choosing (the tug-of-war model), applies to our experimental animal, the European Starling, Sturnus vulgaris. We contrast this with the sequential choice model that postulates that decision-makers make no comparison between options at the time of choice. According to the latter, behaviour in simultaneous choices reflects adaptations to contexts with sequential encounters, in which the choice is whether to take an opportunity or let it pass. We postulate that, in sequential encounters, the decision-maker assigns (by learning) a subjective value to each option, reflecting its payoff relative to background opportunities. This value is expressed as latency and/or probability to accept each opportunity as opposed to keep searching. In simultaneous encounters, choice occurs through each option being processed independently, by a race between the mechanisms that generate option-specific latencies. We describe these alternative models and review data supporting the predictions of the sequential choice model.     

Towards the development of a multidisciplinary understanding of the effects of toxic chemical mixtures on health

Mixtures can be divided into simple (chemicals with comparable properties—health risk assessments on the chemicals) and complex, which can be further subdivided into defined (a reasonably distinct composition, created at a specific time and place despite dissimilar components—risk assessments on the common source) and coincidental (chemicals without similar properties or constant composition in time or space—risk assessments on the receptor). Interactions recognized are: independent action, dose addition (additivity), and potentiation (synergy and antagonism). Unpredicted outcomes need recognition. New approaches in higher education and multidisciplinary investigations are essential. The community of the Society for Environmental Geochemistry and Health should help clarify points such as when transformations in mixtures may become important enough to alter the classification and the risk assessment. The multidisciplinary community is also well placed to support the integration of nonchemical influences into mixture analysis and to contribute to the investigation of cumulative and multiple exposures.     

Linking Water Science to Policy: Results from a Series of National Workshops on Water

To ensure science better informs the decision-making process, researchers and policy/program managers need to understand and respect each other's way of working, culture and operational timelines. However, there is little practical guidance on how this should be done and even less documented experience with specific mechanisms that better link these two groups. The published literature on information transfer has largely emphasized the dissemination of standard packages of information to ill-defined constituencies whose needs for scientific information are not well understood. Environment Canada's National Water Research Institute, on behalf of the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, led a series of “Linking Water Science to Policy Workshops” as one such mechanism by which recent science could be delivered to practitioners, and practitioners could identify their research needs to scientists and research managers. There is a pressing need to explore and share experiences using creative mechanisms for sustained dialogue and networking between scientists and policy and program managers. The lessons learned from the workshop series and the need for science to continually inform the decision-making process has particular relevance for Canada's Ecosystem Initiatives given their integrated, place-based focus on long-term restoration and protection, and the challenge of continually changing ecosystems.The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

Simulating the meteorology and PM10 concentrations in Arizona dust storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (Wrf-Chem)

Nine dust storms in south-central Arizona were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) at 2 km resolution. The windblown dust emission algorithm was the Air Force Weather Agency model. In comparison with ground-based PM₁₀ observations, the model unevenly reproduces the dust-storm events. The model adequately estimates the location and timing of the events, but it is unable to precisely replicate the magnitude and timing of the elevated hourly concentrations of particles 10 µm and smaller ([PM₁₀]).Furthermore, the model underestimated [PM₁₀] in highly agricultural Pinal County because it underestimated surface wind speeds and because the model’s erodible fractions of the land surface data were too coarse to effectively resolve the active and abandoned agricultural lands. In contrast, the model overestimated [PM₁₀] in western Arizona along the Colorado River because it generated daytime sea breezes (from the nearby Gulf of California) for which the surface-layer speeds were too strong. In Phoenix, AZ, the model’s performance depended on the event, with both under- and overestimations partly due to incorrect representation of urban features. Sensitivity tests indicate that [PM₁₀] highly relies on meteorological forcing. Increasing the fraction of erodible surfaces in the Pinal County agricultural areas improved the simulation of [PM₁₀] in that region. Both 24-hr and 1-hr measured [PM₁₀] were, for the most part, and especially in Pinal County, extremely elevated, with the former exceeding the health standard by as much as 10-fold and the latter exceeding health-based guidelines by as much as 70-fold. Monsoonal thunderstorms not only produce elevated [PM₁₀], but also cause urban flash floods and disrupt water resource deliveries. Given the severity and frequency of these dust storms, and conceding that the modeling system applied in this work did not produce the desired agreement between simulations and observations, additional research in both the windblown dust emissions model and the weather research/physicochemical model is called for.

Implications: While many dust storms can be considered to be natural, in semi-arid climates such storms often have an anthropogenic component in their sources of dust. Applying the natural, exceptional events policy to these storms with strong signatures of anthropogenic sources would appear not only to be misguided but also to stifle genuine regulatory efforts at remediation. Those dust storms that have resulted, in part, from passage over abandoned farm land should no longer be considered “natural”; policymakers and lawmakers need to compel the owners of such land to reduce its potential for windblown dust.     

Conservation of indigenous plants to support community livelihoods: the MGU – Useful Plants Project

Through the MGU – Useful Plants Project (2007–2015) led by the Royal Botanic Gardens Kew, high-quality seed collections and research information have been gathered on useful indigenous plants selected by communities in Botswana, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, and Mexico. Local communities were trained in seed conservation, plant propagation, and planting activities, while revenue generation was promoted directly through the sustainable use of plants and plant products and indirectly through wider environmental and cultural services. The success of this project was determined by its participative approach, involving local communities in plant conservation activities and using plant research to support it. However, the promotion of sustainable use and income generation highlighted issues that confirmed the importance of using a ‘holistic approach’ to address the objective of poverty reduction and contribute to improved livelihoods in the communities.