Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Biotransformation and antioxidant enzymes of Lumbriculus variegates as biomarkers of contaminated sediment exposure

In this study the black worm Lumbriculus variegatus was tested for suitability as biomonitor for moderately contaminated sediments. The response capacity of the biotransformation system phase II enzyme glutathione-S-transferase (GST) and the oxidative defense enzyme catalase (CAT) to contaminated sediment and atrazine was investigated to establish them as sensitive biomarkers. To get an integrated view on the enzyme activity kinetics, increasing concentrations of the herbicide atrazine were applied to stimulate GST response, and relationship between enzyme activity and herbicide concentration was observed at various exposure durations. Furthermore, animals were exposed for up to 1 week to sediments of four typical urban river sections with high anthropogenic impact. L. variegatus was capable to accomplish the environmental stress and the selected enzymes showed elevation. Significant changes of GST (membrane-bound and soluble) were detected after at least 4 days of exposure to atrazine and contaminated sediments. Although CAT increase could be observed already after 1 day of exposure to sediments, an exposure time of one week is considerable for accurate interpretation of the enzymatic response. The clear enzymatic response of especially the membrane-bound GST indicated charges with organic lipophilic substances at all sampling sites.     

Heavy metals in untreated/treated urban effluent and sludge from a biological wastewater treatment plant

Background, Aim and Scope

The presence of heavy metals in wastewater is one of the main causes of water and soil pollution. The aim of the present study was to investigate the removal of Cd, Cu, Pb, Hg, Mn, Cr and Zn in urban effluent by a biological wastewater treatment, as well as to quantify the levels of As, Be, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sn, Tl, V and Zn in dewatering sludge from the Biological Wastewater Treatment Plant to Ribeirão Preto (RP-BWTP), Brazil.

Materials and Methods

Concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn and Pb in wastewater and those of Ni in sludge were determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry with graphite furnace atomization. Mercury concentrations in wastewater were measured by hydride generation atomic spectrophotometry, and Zn levels were determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry using acetylene flame. In sludge, the levels of As, Be, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Pb, Sn, Tl, V and Zn were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry.

Results

The percentages of removal efficiency (RE) were the following: Hg 61.5%, Cd 60.0%, Zn 44.9%, Cu 44.2%, PB 39.7%, Cr 16,5% and Mn 10.4%. In turn, the mean concentrations (mg/kg) of metals in dewatering sludge followed this increasing order: Tl (<0.03), Hg (0.31), Be (0.43), As (1.14), Cd (1.34), V (59.2), Pb (132.1), Sn (166.1), Cr (195.0), Mn (208.1), Ni (239.4), Cu (391.7), Zn (864.4) and Fe (20537).

Discussion

The relationship between metal levels in untreated wastewater, as well as the removal efficiency are in agreement with previous data from various investigators, It is important to note that metal removal efficiency is not only affected by metal ion species and concentration, but also by other conditions such as operating parameters, physical, chemical, and biological factors.

Conclusions

Metal values recorded for treated wastewater and sludge were within the maximum permitted levels established by the Environmental Sanitation Company (CETESB), São Paulo, Brazil.

Recommendations

There is an urgent need for the authorities who are responsible for legislation on sludge uses in agriculture of establishing safety levels for As, Be, Hg, Sn, Tl and V.

Perspectives

According to the current metal levels, RP-BWTP sludge might be used for agriculture purposes. However, for an environmentally safe use of sewage sludge, further studies including systematic monitoring are recommended. Annual metal concentrations and predicted variations of those elements in the sludge should be monitored.

     

Long-term geochemical evolution of the near field repository: insights from reactive transport modelling and experimental evidences

The KBS-3 underground nuclear waste repository concept designed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. (SKB) includes a bentonite buffer barrier surrounding the copper canisters and the iron insert where spent nuclear fuel will be placed. Bentonite is also part of the backfill material used to seal the access and deposition tunnels of the repository. The bentonite barrier has three main safety functions: to ensure the physical stability of the canister, to retard the intrusion of groundwater to the canisters, and in case of canister failure, to retard the migration of radionuclides to the geosphere. Laboratory experiments (< 10 years long) have provided evidence of the control exerted by accessory minerals and clay surfaces on the pore water chemistry. The evolution of the pore water chemistry will be a primordial factor on the long-term stability of the bentonite barrier, which is a key issue in the safety assessments of the KBS-3 concept.In this work we aim to study the long-term geochemical evolution of bentonite and its pore water in the evolving geochemical environment due to climate change. In order to do this, reactive transport simulations are used to predict the interaction between groundwater and bentonite which is simulated following two different pathways: (1) groundwater flow through the backfill in the deposition tunnels, eventually reaching the top of the deposition hole, and (2) direct connection between groundwater and bentonite rings through fractures in the granite crosscutting the deposition hole. The influence of changes in climate has been tested using three different waters interacting with the bentonite: present-day groundwater, water derived from ice melting, and deep-seated brine. Two commercial bentonites have been considered as buffer material, MX-80 and Deponit CA-N, and one natural clay (Friedland type) for the backfill. They show differences in the composition of the exchangeable cations and in the accessory mineral content. Results from the simulations indicate that pore water chemistry is controlled by the equilibrium with the accessory minerals, especially carbonates. pH is buffered by precipitation/dissolution of calcite and dolomite, when present. The equilibrium of these minerals is deeply influenced by gypsum dissolution and cation exchange reactions in the smectite interlayer. If carbonate minerals are initially absent in bentonite, pH is then controlled by surface acidity reactions in the hydroxyl groups at the edge sites of the clay fraction, although its buffering capacity is not as strong as the equilibrium with carbonate minerals. The redox capacity of the bentonite pore water system is mainly controlled by Fe(II)-bearing minerals (pyrite and siderite). Changes in the groundwater composition lead to variations in the cation exchange occupancy, and dissolution–precipitation of carbonate minerals and gypsum. The most significant changes in the evolution of the system are predicted when ice-melting water, which is highly diluted and alkaline, enters into the system. In this case, the dissolution of carbonate minerals is enhanced, increasing pH in the bentonite pore water. Moreover, a rapid change in the population of exchange sites in the smectite is expected due to the replacement of Na for Ca.     

Inverse modeling of multicomponent reactive transport through single and dual porosity media

Compacted bentonite is foreseen as buffer material for high-level radioactive waste in deep geological repositories because it provides hydraulic isolation, chemical stability, and radionuclide sorption. A wide range of laboratory tests were performed within the framework of FEBEX (Full-scale Engineered Barrier EXperiment) project to characterize buffer properties and develop numerical models for FEBEX bentonite. Here we present inverse single and dual-continuum multicomponent reactive transport models of a long-term permeation test performed on a 2.5 cm long sample of FEBEX bentonite. Initial saline bentonite porewater was flushed with 5.5 pore volumes of fresh granitic water. Water flux and chemical composition of effluent waters were monitored during almost 4 years. The model accounts for solute advection and diffusion and geochemical reactions such as aqueous complexation, acid-base, cation exchange, protonation/deprotonation by surface complexation and dissolution/precipitation of calcite, chalcedony and gypsum. All of these processes are assumed at local equilibrium. Similar to previous studies of bentonite porewater chemistry on batch systems which attest the relevance of protonation/deprotonation on buffering pH, our results confirm that protonation/deprotonation is a key process in maintaining a stable pH under dynamic transport conditions. Breakthrough curves of reactive species are more sensitive to initial porewater concentration than to effective diffusion coefficient. Optimum estimates of initial porewater chemistry of saturated compacted FEBEX bentonite are obtained by solving the inverse problem of multicomponent reactive transport. While the single-continuum model reproduces the trends of measured data for most chemical species, it fails to match properly the long tails of most breakthrough curves. Such limitation is overcome by resorting to a dual-continuum reactive transport model.     

On-Scene Injury Severity Prediction (OSISP) Algorithm for Truck Occupants

Objective: The aim of this study is to develop an on-scene injury severity prediction (OSISP) algorithm for truck occupants using only accident characteristics that are feasible to assess at the scene of the accident. The purpose of developing this algorithm is to use it as a basis for a field triage tool used in traffic accidents involving trucks. In addition, the model can be valuable for recognizing important factors for improving triage protocols used in Sweden and possibly in other countries with similar traffic environments and prehospital procedures.

Methods: The scope is adult truck occupants involved in traffic accidents on Swedish public roads registered in the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database for calendar years 2003 to 2013. STRADA contains information reported by the police and medical data on injured road users treated at emergency hospitals. Using data from STRADA, 2 OSISP multivariate logistic regression models for deriving the probability of severe injury (defined here as having an Injury Severity Score [ISS] > 15) were implemented for light and heavy trucks; that is, trucks with weight up to 3,500 kg and ??16,500 kg, respectively. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of the OSISP algorithm in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: The rate of belt use was low, especially for heavy truck occupants. The OSISP models developed for light and heavy trucks achieved cross-validation AUC of 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. The AUC values obtained when the models were evaluated on all data without cross-validation were 0.87 for both light and heavy trucks. The difference in the AUC values with and without use of cross-validation indicates overfitting of the model, which may be a consequence of relatively small data sets. Belt use stands out as the most valuable predictor in both types of trucks; accident type and age are important predictors for light trucks.

Conclusions: The OSISP models achieve good discriminating capability for light truck occupants and a reasonable performance for heavy truck occupants. The prediction accuracy may be increased by acquiring more data. Belt use was the strongest predictor of severe injury for both light and heavy truck occupants. There is a need for behavior-based safety programs and/or other means to encourage truck occupants to always wear a seat belt.     

The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates

Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario‐based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species’ observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.