Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Coupling of the Water Cycle with Patterns of Urban Growth in the Baltimore Metropolitan Region,United States

Regional municipal water plans typically do not recognize complex coupling patterns or that increased withdrawals in one location can result in changes in water availability in others. We investigated the interaction between urban growth and water availability in the Baltimore metropolitan region where urban growth has occurred beyond the reaches of municipal water systems into areas that rely on wells in low‐productivity Piedmont aquifers. We used the urban growth model SLEUTH and the hydrologic model ParFlow.CLM to evaluate this interaction with urban growth scenarios in 2007 and 2030. We found decreasing groundwater availability outside of the municipal water service area. Within the municipal service area we found zones of increasing storage resulting from increased urban growth, where reduced vegetation cover dominated the effect of urbanization on the hydrologic cycle. We also found areas of decreasing storage, where expanding impervious surfaces played a larger role. Although the magnitude of urban growth and change in water availability for the simulation period were generally small, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity of changes in subsurface storage. This suggests that there are locally concentrated areas of groundwater sensitivity to urban growth where water shortages could occur or where drying up of headwater streams would be more likely. The simulation approach presented here could be used to identify early warning indicators of future risk.     

Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land‐use change

Designing connected landscapes is among the most widespread strategies for achieving biodiversity conservation targets. The challenge lies in simultaneously satisfying the connectivity needs of multiple species at multiple spatial scales under uncertain climate and land‐use change. To evaluate the contribution of remnant habitat fragments to the connectivity of regional habitat networks, we developed a method to integrate uncertainty in climate and land‐use change projections with the latest developments in network‐connectivity research and spatial, multipurpose conservation prioritization. We used land‐use change simulations to explore robustness of species’ habitat networks to alternative development scenarios. We applied our method to 14 vertebrate focal species of periurban Montreal, Canada. Accounting for connectivity in spatial prioritization strongly modified conservation priorities and the modified priorities were robust to uncertain climate change. Setting conservation priorities based on habitat quality and connectivity maintained a large proportion of the region's connectivity, despite anticipated habitat loss due to climate and land‐use change. The application of connectivity criteria alongside habitat‐quality criteria for protected‐area design was efficient with respect to the amount of area that needs protection and did not necessarily amplify trade‐offs among conservation criteria. Our approach and results are being applied in and around Montreal and are well suited to the design of ecological networks and green infrastructure for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services in other regions, in particular regions around large cities, where connectivity is critically low.     

Modeling and data assessment of longitudinal salinity in a low-gradient estuarine river

Continuous data of vertical-profile salinity were analyzed for four stations located successively upriver in a macrotidal estuary, the lower St. Johns River (Northeast Florida, USA). The data analysis confirmed well-mixed salinity conditions in the river with at most 1.3 ppt of vertical variability at Dames Point (river km 20), where the main variations of salinity are along the longitudinal axis of the river. Given the well-mixed salinity conditions and dominant horizontal structure of salinity variations in the river, we present and apply a barotropic, two-dimensional modeling approach for hydrodynamic-salinity transport simulation in the lower St. Johns River. When properly forced by offshore surge, high-resolution wind fields and freshwater river inflows, the model replicated the salinity measurements remarkably well, including the separation into tidal and sub-tidal components. The data and model results show that, at times, offshore winds and surge can be more influential on longitudinal salinity variations than local winds over the river. We demonstrate the importance of using proper boundary conditions to force the model relative to the minimal sensitivity of the model to parameter adjustment of horizontal mixing and uncertainty-based perturbation of wind and inflow forcings.     

Understanding and encouraging greater nature engagement in Australia: results from a national survey

Interaction with nature has a range of significant health, ecological and economic benefits and a number of governments are implementing policies to increase humans’ engagement with nature. Using a large nationally representative survey sample in Australia, this study provides a detailed comment on the feasibility of such a policy, as well as contributing to an understanding of the characteristics of individuals who engaged in one or more of five dimensions of nature interaction, namely: nature engagement; conservation participation; nature advocacy; environmentally friendly purchasing and future engagement with nature conservation. The results indicate that age, income, education, marital status and household structure are all important influences on various types of nature engagement. It is suggested that increasing opportunities for young people to interact with nature is important, as well as supporting older people's involvement in conservation, plus focusing on the need to target and direct various policies.     

Mercury in San Francisco Bay forage fish

In the San Francisco Estuary, management actions including tidal marsh restoration could change fish mercury (Hg) concentrations. From 2005 to 2007, small forage fish were collected and analyzed to identify spatial and interannual variation in biotic methylmercury (MeHg) exposure. The average whole body total Hg concentration was 0.052 μg g⁻¹ (wet-weight) for 457 composite samples representing 13 fish species. MeHg constituted 94% of total Hg. At a given length, Hg concentrations were higher in nearshore mudflat and wetland species (Clevelandia ios, Menidia audens, and Ilypnus gilberti), compared to species that move offshore (e.g., Atherinops affinis and Lepidogobius lepidus). Gut content analysis indicated similar diets between Atherinops affinis and Menidia audens, when sampled at the same locations. Hg concentrations were higher in sites closest to the Guadalupe River, which drains a watershed impacted by historic Hg mining. Results demonstrate that despite differences among years and fish species, nearshore forage fish exhibit consistent Hg spatial gradients.     

Growth of soybean at future tropospheric ozone concentrations decreases canopy evapotranspiration and soil water depletion

Tropospheric ozone is increasing in many agricultural regions resulting in decreased stomatal conductance and overall biomass of sensitive crop species. These physiological effects of ozone forecast changes in evapotranspiration and thus in the terrestrial hydrological cycle, particularly in intercontinental interiors. Soybean plots were fumigated with ozone to achieve concentrations above ambient levels over five growing seasons in open-air field conditions. Mean season increases in ozone concentrations ([O₃]) varied between growing seasons from 22 to 37% above background concentrations. The objective of this experiment was to examine the effects of future [O₃] on crop ecosystem energy fluxes and water use. Elevated [O₃] caused decreases in canopy evapotranspiration resulting in decreased water use by as much as 15% in high ozone years and decreased soil water removal. In addition, ozone treatment resulted in increased sensible heat flux in all years indicative of day-time increase in canopy temperature of up to 0.7 °C.     

Probability of intellectual disability is associated with soil concentrations of arsenic and lead

Background

The association between metals in water and soil and adverse child neurologic outcomes has focused on the singular effect of lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), and arsenic (As). This study describes the complex association between soil concentrations of As combined with Pb and the probability of intellectual disability (ID) in children.

Methods

We used a retrospective cohort design with 3988 mother child pairs who were insured by Medicaid and lived during pregnancy and early childhood in South Carolina between 1/1/97 and 12/31/02. The children were followed until 6/1/08, using computerized service files, to identify the diagnosis of ID in medical records and verified by either school placement or disability service records. The soil was sampled using a uniform grid and analyzed for eight metals. The metal concentrations were interpolated using Bayesian Kriging to estimate concentration at individual residences.

Results

The probability of ID increased for increasing concentrations of As and Pb in the soil. The Odds Ratio for ID, for one unit change in As was 1.130 (95% confidence interval 1.048-1.218) for Pb was 1.002 (95% confidence interval 1.000-1.004). We identified effect modification for the infants based on their birth weight for gestational age status and only infants who were normal size for their gestational age had increased probability of ID based on the As and Pb soil concentrations (OR for As at normal weight for gestational age = 1.151 (95% CI: 1.061-1.249) and OR for Pb at normal for gestational age = 1.002 (95% CI: 1.002-1.004)). For normal weight for gestational age children when As = 22 mg kg⁻¹ and Pb = 200 mg kg⁻¹ the risk for ID was 11% and when As = 22 mg kg⁻¹and Pb = 400 mg kg⁻¹ the probability of ID was 65%.

Conclusion

The probability of ID is significantly associated with the interaction between Pb and As for normal weight for gestational age infants.