Probability distributions and statistical inference for axial data

Observations on axes which lack information on the direction of propagation are referred to as axial data. Such data are often encountered in enviromental sciences, e.g. observations on propagations of cracks or on faults in mining walls. Even though such observations are recorded as angles, circular probability models are inappropriate for such data since the constraint that observations lie only in [0, π) needs to be enforced. Probability models for such axial data are argued here to have a general structure stemming from that of wrapping a circular distribution on a semi-circle. In particular, we consider the most popular circular model, the von Mises or circular normal distribution, and derive the corresponding axial normal distribution. Certain properties of this distribution are established. Maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters are shown to be surprisingly, in contrast to trigonometric moment estimation, numerically quite appealing. Finally we illustrate our results by several real life axial data sets. Received: September 2004/ Revised: December 2004     

A role forAmanita muscaria L. in the circulation of cadmium and vanadium in a non-polluted woodland

The sporophore of the fungusAmanita muscaria L. contains greatiy elevated levels of cadmium (29.9 g g^–1 dwt) and vanadium (344.9 g g^–1 dwt) in comparison with the soil in a birch woodland (total (HNO₃-extractabie Cd 0.4 g g^–1 dwt, V 11.7 g g^–1 dwt). The significance of this remarkable concentration of normally rare and dispersed elements in terms of their circulation in the woodland has been investigated. Both elements are released from sporophore tissue in a form which can be taken up by a test plant (lettuce), cultivated in the woodland soil amended with different quantities of sporophore tissue, Cadmium levels in all plant tissues were elevated in comparison to the non-amended controls; only root vanadium levels responded to the amendment of the soil. The results are discussed in terms of their significance for the natural cycling of both elements. It is calculated that an abundant population of sporophores could circulate 1.4% of the total cadmium and 0.65% of the total vanadium pool found in the litter layer and 0–5 cm soil horizon in the sampled woodland over a period of 14 days (mean life span of a sporophore).     

Impending Recovery of Kirtland's Warbler: Case Study in the Effectiveness of the Endangered Species Act

Dendroica kirtlandii ). This particular recovery program actually began before passage of the federal ESA, when biologists alerted the Michigan Department of Natural Resources of the perilously low population of this bird, which only breeds under jack pine (Pinus banksiana) trees in Michigan. By the time an ESA Recovery Team was formed for this bird in 1975 (the first such team created under the ESA), a legacy of consensus and interagency cooperation was well established. This has led to successful efforts at habitat management and control of its nest parasite, the brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater). While the Kirtland's warbler is not yet recovered, its population is near an all-time high, and its recovery is possible within the next decade. When (and if) this happens, it will be clearly attributable to this successful model of federalism for natural resources management.     

Separation and capture of CO2 from large stationary sources and sequestration in geological formations--coalbeds and deep saline aquifers

The topic of global warming as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is arguably the most important environmental issue that the world faces today. It is a global problem that will need to be solved on a global level. The link between anthropogenic emissions of CO2 with increased atmospheric CO2 levels and, in turn, with increased global temperatures has been well established and accepted by the world. International organizations such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been formed to address this issue. Three options are being explored to stabilize atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and global temperatures without severely and negatively impacting standard of living: (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching to less carbon-intensive sources of energy, and (3) carbon sequestration. To be successful, all three options must be used in concert. The third option is the subject of this review. Specifically, this review will cover the capture and geologic sequestration of CO2 generated from large point sources, namely fossil-fuel-fired power gasification plants. Sequestration of CO2 in geological formations is necessary to meet the President's Global Climate Change Initiative target of an 18% reduction in GHG intensity by 2012. Further, the best strategy to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 results from a multifaceted approach where sequestration of CO2 into geological formations is combined with increased efficiency in electric power generation and utilization, increased conservation, increased use of lower carbon-intensity fuels, and increased use of nuclear energy and renewables. This review covers the separation and capture of CO2 from both flue gas and fuel gas using wet scrubbing technologies, dry regenerable sorbents, membranes, cryogenics, pressure and temperature swing adsorption, and other advanced concepts. Existing commercial CO2 capture facilities at electric power-generating stations based on the use of monoethanolamine are described, as is the Rectisol process used by Dakota Gasification to separate and capture CO2 from a coal gasifier. Two technologies for storage of the captured CO2 are reviewed--sequestration in deep unmineable coalbeds with concomitant recovery of CH4 and sequestration in deep saline aquifers. Key issues for both of these techniques include estimating the potential storage capacity, the storage integrity, and the physical and chemical processes that are initiated by injecting CO2 underground. Recent studies using computer modeling as well as laboratory and field experimentation are presented here. In addition, several projects have been initiated in which CO2 is injected into a deep coal seam or saline aquifer. The current status of several such projects is discussed. Included is a commercial-scale project in which a million tons of CO2 are injected annually into an aquifer under the North Sea in Norway. The review makes the case that this can all be accomplished safely with off-the-shelf technologies. However, substantial research and development must be performed to reduce the cost, decrease the risks, and increase the safety of sequestration technologies. This review also includes discussion of possible problems related to deep injection of CO2. There are safety concerns that need to be addressed because of the possibilities of leakage to the surface and induced seismic activity. These issues are presented along with a case study of a similar incident in the past. It is clear that monitoring and verification of storage will be a crucial part of all geological sequestration practices so that such problems may be avoided. Available techniques include direct measurement of CO2 and CH4 surface soil fluxes, the use of chemical tracers, and underground 4-D seismic monitoring. Ten new hypotheses were formulated to describe what happens when CO2 is pumped into a coal seam. These hypotheses provide significant insight into the fundamental chemical, physical, and thermodynamic phenomena that occur during coal seam sequestration of CO2.     

Urban stormwater quality control analysis with detention ponds.

This paper presents methodologies for the development of stormwater quality control measures based on the derived probability distribution approach. These stormwater control measures, such as the fraction of pollutant removed from storage facilities, are closed-form analytical models and can be effectively used to evaluate pollutant loads to receiving waters. In this study, a simple form of rainfall-runoff transformation with lumped parameters is first extended to take into account the spatial variations in model parameters. Second, the infiltration process is further incorporated to the rainfall-runoff transformation. This study demonstrates that analytical models can be developed with various levels of complexity based on different hydrologic considerations. The performance of the analytical models is evaluated in a case study, and the results indicate that, with an appropriately formulated rainfall-runoff transformation, analytical stormwater runoff models are capable of providing comparable results to continuous simulation models in the evaluation of the long-term performance of storage facilities.     

Effects of invertebrate predators and a pesticide on temporary pond microcosms used for aquatic toxicity testing

The effects of increased trophic complexity, through the addition of predatory notonectids (Anisops deanei), on temporary pond microcosms used for aquatic toxicity testing were studied. Replicate microcosms were established using sediment from a dried temporary pond, and treated with one of four concentrations of the organochlorine pesticide endosulfan (0, 1, 10 or 50 microg/L), in the presence or absence of six A. deanei. The tanks were sampled regularly for nine weeks following the addition of the predators and the entire contents of each tank counted after 12 weeks. Analysis using non-metric multidimensional scaling (MDS) and non-parametric MANOVA showed that both Anisops and endosulfan at concentrations >10 microg/L significantly altered community structure. However, an interaction between the effects of Anisops and the effects of endosulfan was not detected. The addition of Anisops did not increase the variability of response and thus did not reduce the sensitivity of the test method.     

A contact sex pheromone component of the emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)

Analyses of the elytral hydrocarbons from male and female emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, that were freshly emerged vs. sexually mature (>10 days old) revealed a female-specific compound, 9-methyl-pentacosane (9-Me-C₂₅), only present in sexually mature females. This material was synthesized by the Wittig reaction of 2-decanone with (n-hexadecyl)-triphenylphosphonium bromide followed by catalytic reduction to yield racemic 9-Me C₂₅, which matched the natural compound by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (retention time and EI mass spectrum). In field bioassays with freeze-killed sexually mature A. planipennis females, feral males spent significantly more time in contact and attempting copulation with unwashed females than with females that had been washed in n-hexane to remove the cuticular lipids. Hexane-washed females to which 9-Me-C₂₅ had been reapplied elicited similar contact time and percentage of time attempting copulation as unwashed females, indicating that 9-methyl-pentacosane is a contact sex pheromone component of A. planipennis. This is the first contact sex pheromone identified in the Buprestidae.