Modeling Large Fire Frequency and Burned Area in Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystems with Poisson Models

Large wildland fires are major disturbances that strongly influence the carbon cycling and vegetation dynamics of Canadian boreal ecosystems. Although large wildland fires have recently received much scrutiny in scientific study, it is still a challenge for researchers to predict large fire frequency and burned area. Here, we use monthly climate and elevation data to quantify the frequency of large fires using a Poisson model, and we calculate the probability of burned area exceeding a certain size using a compound Poisson process. We find that the Poisson model simulates large fire occurrence well during the fire season (May through August) using monthly climate, and the threshold probability calculated by the compound Poisson model agrees well with historical records. Threshold probabilities are significantly different among different Canadian ecozones, with the Boreal Shield ecozone always showing the highest probability. The fire prediction model described in this study and the derived information will facilitate future quantification of fire risks and help improve fire management in the region.     

Modeling kelp forest distribution and biomass along temperate rocky coastlines

We address the global deficit of data describing kelp forest distribution, relative covers and biomass by testing the ability of species distribution models to predict these attributes at locations where data are currently limited. We integrated biological ground truth data with high-resolution environmental datasets to develop generalized additive models that accurately predict the structure of Laminaria forests within the Bay of Morlaix (48°42′42″N, 3°55′40″W). Forest distribution and proportional covers were predicted using water depth, light availability, wave exposure and sediment dynamics. The biomass of individual kelp species was modeled by supplementing these same variables with measures of seafloor slope and benthic position. Biomass predictions for Laminaria digitata and Laminaria hyperborea contrast the physiological tolerances of these species to light and wave exposure gradients. As a direct management output, we produced high-resolution maps (25 m² grids) that closely match independent field data and provide vital information for marine spatial planning.     

Sampling animal association networks with the gambit of the group

Ecologists increasingly use network theory to examine animal association patterns. The gambit of the group (GoG) is a simple and useful assumption for accumulating the data necessary for a network analysis. The gambit of the group implies that each animal in a group is associating with every other individual in that group. Sampling is an important issue for networks in wild populations collected assuming GoG. Due to time, effort, and resource constraints and the difficulty of tracking animals, sampled data are usually a subset of the actual network. Ecologists often use association indexes to calculate the frequency of associations between individuals. These indexes are often transformed by applying a filter to produce a binary network. We explore GoG sampling using model networks. We examine assortment at the level of the group by a single dichotomous trait, along with many other network measures, to examine the effect of different sampling regimes, and choice of filter on the accuracy and precision with which measures are estimated. We find strong support for the use of weighted, rather than filtered, network measures and show that different filters have different effects depending on the nature of the sampling. We make several practical recommendations for ecologists planning GoG sampling.     

Biodegradation of carbofuran in soils within Nzoia River Basin,Kenya

Carbofuran (2,3-dihydro-2,2-dimethylbenzofuran-7-yl methylcarbamate) has been used within the Nzoia River Basin (NRB), especially in Bunyala Rice Irrigation Schemes, in Kenya for the control of pests. In this study, the capacity of native bacteria to degrade carbofuran in soils from NRB was investigated. A gram positive, rod-shaped bacteria capable of degrading carbofuran was isolated through liquid cultures with carbofuran as the only carbon and nitrogen source. The isolate degraded 98% of 100-μg mL^?1 carbofuran within 10 days with the formation of carbofuran phenol as the only detectable metabolite. The degradation of carbofuran was followed by measuring its residues in liquid cultures using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Physical and morphological characteristics as well as molecular characterization confirmed the bacterial isolate to be a member of Bacillus species. The results indicate that this strain of Bacillus sp. could be considered as Bacillus cereus or Bacillus thuringiensis with a bootstrap value of 100% similar to the 16S rRNA gene sequences. The biodegradation capability of the native strains in this study indicates that they have great potential for application in bioremediation of carbofuran-contaminated soil sites.     

Development of a real-time immuno-PCR assay for the quantification of 17β-estradiol in water

A competitive real-time (RT) immuno-polymerase chain reaction (iPCR) (RT-iPCR) assay was developed for the sensitive quantification of 17β-estradiol in water. Using a universal iPCR method and polyclonal antibodies, 17β-estradiol was accurately quantified at concentrations ranging from 1 pg mL^?1 to 10 µg mL^?1. The RT-iPCR assay's limit of detection was 0.7 pg mL^?1. The RT-iPCR assay provided an 800-fold increase in sensitivity as well as an expanded working range compared with the corresponding enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Assay cross-reactivity to estrone and estriol, two structurally related estrogens, was below 8%. Water samples spiked with 17β-estradiol were analyzed by RT-iPCR to determine the assay's potential as a rapid screen for the monitoring of manure-borne estrogens in the environment. The assay showed recoveries of 82, 102 and 103% for Milli-Q, tap, and irrigation water, respectively, without requiring sample extraction or concentration prior to analysis.     

Defending the scientific integrity of conservation‐policy processes

Government agencies faced with politically controversial decisions often discount or ignore scientific information, whether from agency staff or nongovernmental scientists. Recent developments in scientific integrity (the ability to perform, use, communicate, and publish science free from censorship or political interference) in Canada, Australia, and the United States demonstrate a similar trajectory. A perceived increase in scientific‐integrity abuses provokes concerted pressure by the scientific community, leading to efforts to improve scientific‐integrity protections under a new administration. However, protections are often inconsistently applied and are at risk of reversal under administrations publicly hostile to evidence‐based policy. We compared recent challenges to scientific integrity to determine what aspects of scientific input into conservation policy are most at risk of political distortion and what can be done to strengthen safeguards against such abuses. To ensure the integrity of outbound communications from government scientists to the public, we suggest governments strengthen scientific integrity policies, include scientists’ right to speak freely in collective‐bargaining agreements, guarantee public access to scientific information, and strengthen agency culture supporting scientific integrity. To ensure the transparency and integrity with which information from nongovernmental scientists (e.g., submitted comments or formal policy reviews) informs the policy process, we suggest governments broaden the scope of independent reviews, ensure greater diversity of expert input and transparency regarding conflicts of interest, require a substantive response to input from agencies, and engage proactively with scientific societies. For their part, scientists and scientific societies have a responsibility to engage with the public to affirm that science is a crucial resource for developing evidence‐based policy and regulations in the public interest.     

A factor analytic study of attitudinal structure and its impact on rural landowners' access policies

Previous research has shown that rural landowners' hunter access policies are determined in large part by their attitudes towards hunters, legal liability, conservation, and economic incentives. The results of this study support this research and indicate that East Texas, USA, landowners' decisions to allow or restrict access are based, in part, on attitudes toward hunter behavior, hunting as a social activity, leasing as a management practice, and a perceived obligation toward wildlife stewardship. Attitude-based profiles of landowners who adopted one of four access policies are compared.     

Vacuum pyrolysis process for remediation of hydrocarbon-contaminated soils

A vacuum pyrolysis process was used for the remediation of hydrocarbon–contaminated soils from “Les Vidangeurs de Montréal” site in Mascouche in the province of Québec, near Montréal. Ten samples were tested on a laboratory scale batch reactor, and one sample was tested on a prototype process development unit. The process is simple, efficient, reliable, and economically competitive with other existing technologies. The vacuum pyrolysis process efficiently treated soils contaminated with a variety of pollution levels and types, irrespective of the soil matrix, providing treated soils meeting the A criterion (noncontaminated, residential level) of the Ministry of Environment Québec (MENVIQ). The pyrolytic oil and the noncondensable pyrolytic gases can be used as makeup fuel in the process, because they have a high calorific value and their combustion should not pose any emission problems. The waterphase effluent must be treated before discharge.     

REAL-TIME SNOW SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE MONONGAHELA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pittsburgh District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is responsible for operating two multipurpose reservoirs in the 7384 square mile (19198 square kilometer) Monongahela Basin. A third reservoir, presently under construction, will soon be operating. The real-time forecasting of runoff for operational purposes requires simulation of snow accumulation and snowmelt throughout the Basin during the winter season. This article describes capabilities of SNOSIM, a model being developed for performing such simulation. The application of this model as part of a comprehensive system of water control software, and some initial simulation results are presented.