2014, The “year without a summer” in Italy: news media coverage and implications for the climate change debate

In 2014, there was virtually no summer in northern and central-southern Italy. Storm after storm battered the peninsula, triggering floods and landslides from Veneto to Puglia. We studied the coverage of “the year without a summer” in Italy by analyzing the content of 171 news articles from two influential online newspapers. Our software-based analysis enabled us to observe that the two newspapers hardly ever mentioned climate change in their coverage of the weather anomaly that affected Italy in the summer of 2014. This type of coverage is in line with climate science, according to which there is no evidence of a climate change-related influence on summer precipitation patterns in Southern Europe—whereas such influence has been documented for northern Europe. We compared our results with a recent paper, which documented that the same online dailies chose to represent the particularly hot summer of 2012 in Italy as a direct consequence of climate change. We corroborated this comparison also on the basis of a preliminary analysis we performed on the media coverage of the exceptionally hot and arid summer of 2015 in Italy.     

Modeling Inorganic Aerosols and Their Response to Changes in Precursor Concentration in Mexico City

Abstract

Based on data from the 1997 Investigación sobre Materia Particulada y Deterioro Atmosférico-Aerosol and Visibility Evaluation Research (IMADA-EVER) campaign and the inorganic aerosol model ISORROPIA, the response of inorganic aerosols to changes in precursor concentrations was calculated. The aerosol behavior is dominated by the abundance of ammonia and thus, changes in ammonia concentration are expected to have a small effect on particle concentrations. Changes in sulfate and nitrate are expected to lead to proportional reductions in inorganic fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Comparing the predictions of ISORROPIA with the observations, the lowest bias and error are achieved when the aerosols are assumed to be in the efflorescence branch. Including crustal species reduces the bias and error for nitrate but does not improve overall model performance. The estimated response of inorganic PM_2.5 to changes in precursor concentrations is affected by the inclusion of crustal species in some cases, although average responses are comparable with and without crustal species. Observed concentrations of particle chloride suggest that gas phase concentrations of hydrogen chloride may not be negligible, and future measurement campaigns should include observations to test this hypothesis. Our ability to model aerosol behavior in Mexico City and, thus, design control strategies, is constrained primarily by a lack of observations of gas phase precursors. Future campaigns should focus in particular on better understanding the temporal and spatial distribution of ammonia concentrations. In addition, gas phase observations of nitric acid are needed, and a measure of particle water content will allow stable versus metastable aerosol behavior to be distinguished.     

Chorionic villi sampling changes maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein

Second trimester amniocentesis has traditionally been utilized for prenatal genetic diagnosis. Chorionic villi sampling (CVS) is presently offered as an alternative. The occurrence of fetomaternal bleed (FMB) during CVS could increase the rate of post sampling abortion and, additionally, be of significance in patients at risk for isoimmunization. Detection and quantitation of FMB can be accomplished by the determination of changes in maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) before and after CVS.     

Decomposition of benzo (a) pyrene deposited on glass fiber filters and exposed to sunlight

Measurements of Benzo (a) Pyrene deposited on glass fiber filters exposed to solar radiation indicate a time dependent exponential decrease. Possible impl$\text{i}$ cations of this phenomenon in the measurements of B(a)P in particulate samples are discussed.     

Identification of policies for a sustainable legal trade in rhinoceros horn based on population projection and socioeconomic models

Between 1990 and 2007, 15 southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) and black (Diceros bicornis) rhinoceroses on average were killed illegally every year in South Africa. Since 2007 illegal killing of southern white rhinoceros for their horn has escalated to >950 individuals/year in 2013. We conducted an ecological–economic analysis to determine whether a legal trade in southern white rhinoceros horn could facilitate rhinoceros protection. Generalized linear models were used to examine the socioeconomic drivers of poaching, based on data collected from 1990 to 2013, and to project the total number of rhinoceroses likely to be illegally killed from 2014 to 2023. Rhinoceros population dynamics were then modeled under 8 different policy scenarios that could be implemented to control poaching. We also estimated the economic costs and benefits of each scenario under enhanced enforcement only and a legal trade in rhinoceros horn and used a decision support framework to rank the scenarios with the objective of maintaining the rhinoceros population above its current size while generating profit for local stakeholders. The southern white rhinoceros population was predicted to go extinct in the wild <20 years under present management. The optimal scenario to maintain the rhinoceros population above its current size was to provide a medium increase in antipoaching effort and to increase the monetary fine on conviction. Without legalizing the trade, implementing such a scenario would require covering costs equal to approximately $147,000,000/year. With a legal trade in rhinoceros horn, the conservation enterprise could potentially make a profit of $717,000,000/year. We believe the 35‐year‐old ban on rhinoceros horn products should not be lifted unless the money generated from trade is reinvested in improved protection of the rhinoceros population. Because current protection efforts seem to be failing, it is time to evaluate, discuss, and test alternatives to the present policy.     

Conspicuous displays in cryptic males of a polytypic poison-dart frog

The evolution of aposematism is linked to increased opportunities for conspicuous sexual displays since detection by potential predators is no longer disadvantageous. Therefore, phenotypic divergence in aposematic species leading to relatively cryptic forms is expected to constrain such opportunities, by restoring the trade-off between natural and sexual selection on the boldness of sexual displays. We asked if and how a derived phenotype of the poison-dart frog Oophaga granulifera that appears relatively cryptic to potential predators exhibits conspicuous sexual displays for potential mates. We used visual modeling of frog contrasts against their natural backgrounds to test if for conspecifics green frogs appear less conspicuous than red frogs as they do for birds. We conducted behavioral observations of focal red and green males to determine if green frogs adjust their display behavior to the availability of potential mates. Dorsal brightness is known to influence female preferences in at least one poison frog species. We found that, despite being less visible under some measures, green frogs may appear as bright as red frogs for conspecifics but not birds, when viewed on dark backgrounds. Additionally, green males called more intermittently than red males when advertising to distant females, but they exhibited a dramatic increase in calling activity in proximity of a female and were as active as red males in this context. Together, our results suggest that green frogs retain context-dependent conspicuousness to conspecifics despite the evolution of relative crypsis to potential predators.