中国、印度和世界的新秩序《世界报告2006》第一章(续)

转向世界粮食市场 与严重依赖外国石油的状况形成鲜明对照的是,中国和印度如今在粮食方面处于自给自足的状态,并为它们的成就而自豪（图1-2）.这两个国家都经历过严重饥荒的困难历史,都不希望这一悲剧情况重演.自从1985年以来,中国进口的粮食从来没有超过其消费总量的6%,而印度进口的粮食也没有超过其消费总量的3%（表1-3）.但是,在未来的几十年内,这两个大国是否可以避免求助于全球粮食市场（主要指小麦、水稻、玉米和其他主要基本食品）,已成为这两个国家和全球的一个尚待解决的、重要的问题.这是由于：世界粮食市场与石油市场的状况一样,与20世纪比较,指望生产过剩已经远非那么可靠了.     

What's wrong with animalby-products?

Without looking beyond the conditions under which laying hens typically live in the contemporary U.S. egg industry, we can understand why the production and consumption of factory farmed eggs could be judged immoral. However, the question, What (if anything) is wrong with animal by-products? cannot always be adequately answered by looking at the conditions under which animals live out their productive lives. For the dairy industry looks benign in those terms, but if we look beyond the conditions under which milk cows live, we can better understand some animal rights activists' reasons for objecting to dairy products. The contemporary U.S. dairy industry requires a slaughter industry between one-seventh and one-third the size of the contemporary beef industry. Today, beef slaughter is vastly more humane than poultry slaughter, but if today's beef slaughter industry is judged emmoral, the contemporary dairy industry should be judged similarly immoral, because the two are wedded. This is the deep reason for moral suspicion of the dairy industry.     

Simulating forest structure, timber production, and socioeconomic effects in a multi-owner province.

Protecting biodiversity has become a major goal in managing coastal forests in the Pacific Northwest--an area in which human activities have had a significant influence on landscape change. A complex pattern of public and private forest ownership, combined with new regulations for each owner group, raises questions about how well and how efficiently these policies achieve their biodiversity goals. To develop a deeper understanding of the aggregate effect of forest policies, we simulated forest structures, timber production, and socioeconomic conditions over time for the mixture of private and public lands in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. To make these projections, we recognized both vegetative complexity at the stand level and spatial complexity at the landscape level. We focused on the two major factors influencing landscape change in the forests of the Coast Range: (1) land use, especially development for houses and cities, and (2) forest management, especially clearcutting. Our simulations of current policy suggest major changes in land use on the margins of the Coast Range, a divergence in forest structure among the different owners, an increase in old-growth forests, and a continuing loss of the structural elements associated with diverse young forests. Our simulations also suggest that current harvest levels can be approximately maintained, with the harvest coming almost entirely from private lands. A policy alternative that retained live trees for wildlife would increase remnant structures but at a cost to landowners (5-7% reduction in timber production). Another alternative that precluded thinning of plantations on federal land would significantly reduce the area of very large diameter (>75 cm dbh) conifer forests 100 years into the future     

Techno-Arrogance and Halfway Technologies: Salmon Hatcheries on the Pacific Coast of North America

Humankind has adopted an arrogant and ultimately self-defeating attitude toward nature that places technological mastery over nature at the forefront of our approach to many environmental problems. This "techno-arrogance" fails to recognize limitations on, and ramifications of, attempted control of nature. An example of techno-arrogance is the flawed attempt to recover Pacific salmonid fisheries through technological application in the form of hatcheries. Countless salmon stocks have declined precipitously over the last century as a result of overfishing and widespread habitat destruction. A central feature of recovery efforts has been to build many hatcheries to produce large quantities of fish to restock streams. This approach addresses the symptoms but not the causes of the declines (an example of a halfway technology), because the habitats remain largely unsuitable for salmon. There are at least six reasons why the hatchery approach will ultimately fail: (1) data demonstrate that hatcheries are not solving the problem—salmon continue to decline despite decades of hatchery production; (2) hatcheries are costly to run, and divert resources from other efforts, such as habitat restoration; (3) hatcheries are not sustainable in the long term, requiring continual input of money and energy, (4) hatcheries are a genetically unsound approach to management that can adversely affect wild populations; (5) hatchery production leads to increased harvest of declining wild populations of salmon; and (6) hatcheries conceal from the public the truth of real salmon decline. I recommend that salmonid management turn from the symptoms to the causes of decline. Overharvest and habitat destruction must be directly addressed in a major, landscape-level effort, on a scale comparable to the hatchery program, if salmonid fisheries are to remain a part of the ecological recreational, commercial and asthetic arenas in the long term.     

The Genetic Diversity of Native, Stocked, and Hybrid Populations of Brook Trout in the Southern Appalachians

Using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) restriction analysis and starch-gel electrophoresis of the CK-A2 locus product, we examined genetic variation in 311 brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from 11 native, 5 hatchery-derived, and 8 hybrid populations in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Native southern Appalachian fish were genetically distinct from hatchery-derived fish. Southern and hatchery-derived fish were reliably distinguished based on three mtDNA restriction sites. Native southern haplotypes differed from hatchery-derived haplotypes by an average of 0.84%. Northern hatchery-derived haplotypes varied little in mtDNA compared to native southern haplotypes. Introgression of mtDNA haplotypes and the CK-A2 locus varied among populations, and introgression of allozyme and mtDNA markers was positively correlated. Continued introductions of nonnative strains of brook trout in the southern Appalachians could simplify the genetic structure of native brook trout populations and eliminate unique genotypes.     

First-trimester biochemical screening for fetal chromosome abnormalities and neural tube defects

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (UE3), intact human chorionic gonado-trophin (intHCG), and the free β subunit of chorionic gonadotrophin (FβHCG) were investigated in a series of 21 chromosomally abnormal and 14 open neural tube defect pregnancies ascertained from a series of 14 000 prospectively collected maternal serum samples at 6–14 weeks' gestation. In 16 cases of Down's syndrome, significant reductions were found for AFP (0.65 multiples of the normal median) and UE3 (0.67 MOM). IntHCG levels were unaltered (0.97 MOM) but a significant increase was found for FβHCG (1.96 MOM). Significant correlations were found for AFP and UE3 in the controls and for int HCG and FβHCG in both the control and the Down's syndrome pregnancies. In a group of five trisomy 18 pregnancies, median MOMs were for AFP 0. 71 , for UE3 0. 34 , for intHCG 0. 27 , and for FβHCG 0.15. None of 13 pregnancies with open neural tube defects at 8-13 weeks gestation had elevated maternal serum AFP levels, whereas matched second-trimester samples from the same pregnancies at 16-18 weeks gestation all had significantly elevated AFP levels. Thus, biochemical screening for chromosome abnormalities may be practicable in the first trimester using free β human chorionic gonadotrophin in combination with AFP and maternal age. However, a separate screening protocol using AFP at 15-18 weeks gestation would still be required for effective detection of neural tube defects.     

Does chorionic villus sampling compromise fetal umbilical blood flow?

A possible association of limb reduction defects with chorionic villus sampling (CVS) may be related to compromised umbilical blood flow from the trauma of the procedure. We hypothesized that because CVS may disrupt or compromise umbilical blood flow to the fetus, either by vasoconstriction, bradycardia, or emboli, we would detect these changes using Doppler velocimetry. A cohort of 21 consecutive consenting patients undergoing first-trimester elective CVS for prenatal diagnosis were entered into a prospective longitudinal study. Colour flow Doppler velocimetry was performed on fetal umbilical arterial blood flow immediately before and after CVS to measure the pulsatility index, fetal heart rate, per cent flow time, and maximum flow velocity. Measurements were obtained from three consecutive cardiac cycles in three different umbilical segments and averaged. Potentially confounding variables also recorded included gestational age, method of CVS, number of passes, number of aspirations, placental location, tissue sample size, and operator. Umbilical velocimetry values before and after CVS were compared using the paired t-test and showed no statistically significant differences. No differences were found when data were analysed by gestational age, sample size, method, number of aspirations, placental location, or operator. We were unable to detect any significant change in fetal umbilical arterial blood flow velocimetry or heart rate after performing CVS. Umbilical blood flow does not appear to be routinely compromised by CVS.     

Resistance of nutrient cycling systems to perturbations of the flow rates

The resistance of a nutrient cycling system to a disturbance that alters the flow rates, measured by the displacement of the nutrient levels while the disturbance continues, is as important an aspect of stability as the rate of return to equilibrium after the disturbance ends. Two important characteristics of the resistance of a system are the ultimate displacement that would occur if the disturbance lasted indefinitely, and the rate at which the system approaches the ultimate displacement.The mathematical theory is worked out for linear systems and applied to a group of eight nutrient cycling models. The relative resistance of individual compartments of different systems depends heavily on the period of interest, because of the wide range of magnitudes of the eigenvalues, which determine the response times. However, when measuring the change in total nutrients in a system with small exterior flows compared with the amount of internal cycling, only the critical root is significant in determining the response rate.