Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Dynamics of growth and seed production in the Siberian stone pine: The level and pattern of variation in characters

A statistical analysis of interannual variation in a set of vegetative and generative characters over 13 years has been performed to characterize the growth and seed production dynamics of the Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) in the southeast of the forest zone in western Siberia. The results have shown that the range of fluctuations in most of vegetative characters is ordinary and their distribution is close to normal. The range of fluctuations in many generative characters is enormous (from 0 to +∞), and the distribution of their values is usually skewed, with low values being recorded several times more frequently than high values. Most variable are the proportion of abortive cones and other characters that are determined mainly in the spring of the pollination year. These characters account for a very high level of variation in the total seed production.     

Piggery: from environmental pollution to a climate change solution

Pig farms are a vital component of rural economies in Australia. However, disposal of effluent leads to many environmental problems. This case study of the Berrybank Farm piggery waste management system in Victoria estimates greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits from three different activities. Analysis reveals that the capturing and combusting of methane from piggery effluent could save between 4859 and 5840 tCO2e yr(-1) of GHG emissions. Similarly, using methane for replacing fuels for electricity generation could save another 800 tCO2e yr(-1)of GHGs. Likewise, by utilizing the biogas wastes to replace inorganic fertilizers there could be a further saving of 1193 to 1375 tCO2e yr(-1) of GHG, depending on the type of fertilizers the waste replaces. Therefore, a well-managed piggery farm with 15,000 pigs could save 6,852 to 8,015 tCO2e yr(-1), which equates to the carbon sequestrated from 6,800 to 8,000 spotted gum trees (age=35 year) in their above plus below-ground biomass. Implementation of similar project in suitable areas in Australia could have significant environmental and financial benefits.     

Simplified determination of lipophilic metabolites of nonylphenol ethoxylates: method development and application in aqueous samples from Buenos Aires, Argentina

In the present work we have developed an analytical methodology for the determination of nonylphenol (NP) and nonylphenol mono- and di-ethoxylates (NP1EO and NP2EO) in water samples. The applicability of this methodology was proved by means of the analysis of environmentally relevant aqueous samples from Buenos Aires. This constitutes a starting point for a rigorous assessment of the incidence of NPnEO surfactants in Argentina, as only very few, qualitative or semi-quantitative data on the occurrence of these compounds in local systems were available up to this time. Enrichment of the analytes was carried out by solid-phase extraction on a C-18 sorbent, followed by elution with ethyl acetate. Normal-phase high performance liquid chromatography on an amino-silica column and fluorescence detection at excitation-emission wavelengths of 230-300 nm were employed for separation and quantification of the analytes. Confirmation of peak assignment in selected real samples was performed by off-line coupling HPLC with GC-MS analysis. A non-polar GC capillary column was used, and a characteristic peak pattern was obtained for the alkyl chain isomers of each ethoxylated homologue and NP. GC-MS analyses yielded in all cases purity levels higher than 80% for the HPLC collected fractions. The elevated concentrations found for the estrogenic metabolites of NPnEO are in accordance with an unrestricted use of this class of non-ionic surfactants in the country.     

Coat color polymorphism in populations of the northern mole vole in the Ural Region

Collections made in the course of long-term field studies on ecology of the northern mole vole Ellobius talpinus Pall. in the Ural Region and neighboring areas (more than 2000 individuals from 24 points of the species range) were used to analyze geographic variation in its coat color (color morphs). On the basis of long-term observations (1985–1999) on marked animals from a polymorphic population (Kurtamyshskii raion, Kurgan oblast), the life spans of males and females and the dependence of life span on population density and structure were estimated in animals of different color morphs. Each color morph of E. talpinus was shown to have specific features of the seasonal dynamics of age structure and migrations.     

Migration,habitat use,and competition among mobile corals (Scleractinia: Fungiidae) in the Gulf of Eilat,Red Sea

We examined the impact of seven species of mobile mushroom corals (Fungiidae) on the community structure of sheltered reef slopes in terms of their patterns of migration, habitat use and competition with other benthic organisms. On fringing reefs at Eilat, Red Sea, polyps detached at 1 to 6 cm length, and grew to 11–55 cm length. Attached mushroom corals were oriented vertically in reef cavities. Detached corals migrated downward on the reef slope and onto rubble or soft substratum at the reef base, at 29 to 71 cmyr^–1. Mobility decreased with corallum size and extent of undersurface ornamentation. In aquaria, small corals righted themselves and migrated up to 6 cm d^–1 by nocturnally inflating and pushing their tissues against the substratum. Autonomous coral behavior and storm-generated water motion appeared to account for most fungiid mobility at Eilat. Mushroom corals did not damage each other upon contact, even in multi-species aggregations, but unilaterally damaged non-fungiid scleractinian corals. Their dominance during contact interactions retards overgrowth by larger attached scleractinians, and mobility allows them to colonize soft substrata not accessible to most other reef corals.