An imprecise Fault Tree Analysis for the estimation of the Rate of OCcurrence Of Failure (ROCOF)

The paper proposes an imprecise Fault Tree Analysis in order to characterize systems affected by the lack of reliability data. Differently from other research works, the paper introduces a classification of basic events into two categories, namely Initiators and Enablers. Actually, in real industrial systems some events refer to component failures or process parameter deviations from normal operating conditions (Initiators), whereas others refer to the functioning of safety barriers to be activated on demand (Enablers). As a consequence, the output parameter of interest is not the classical probability of occurrence of the top event, but its Rate of OCcurrence (ROCOF) over a stated period of time. In order to characterize the basic events, interval-valued information supplied by experts are properly aggregated and propagated to the top. To this purpose, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of evidence is proposed as a more appropriate mathematical framework than the classical probabilistic one. The proposed methodology, applied to a real industrial scenario, can be considered a helpful tool to support risk managers working in industrial plants.     

Assessment, validation and intercomparison of operational models for predicting tritium migration from routine discharges of nuclear power plants: the case of Loire River

During last decades, a number of projects have been launched to validate models for predicting the behaviour of radioactive substances in the environment. The project of the "Aquatic" working group of the project EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) organised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was based on the validation and assessment of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystems. The present paper describes a blind test of models aimed at assessing the dispersion of tritium releases in the Loire River (France), on a large domain ( approximately 350km) and on a period of six months, by comparing the results obtained by operational-to-experimental values of tritium concentration at Angers, a city along the Loire River. The common conclusion is that the models used by the different participants namely 1D models and models based on a schematic hydraulic (box models) are reliable tools for tritium transport modelling. Nevertheless, the importance of proper and detailed hydrological data for the appropriate prediction of pollutant migration in water is demonstrated by the example provided during this study.     

Organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in common buzzard (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Buteo buteo</Emphasis>) from Sicily (Italy)

In the present study, we investigated the concentrations and distribution of organochlorine pesticides (OCs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in intestine, liver, and muscle samples of 11 common buzzards (Buteo buteo) from Sicily used as bioindicator for monitoring pollution in environment. All samples of common buzzards were collected at the “Recovery Center of Wild Fauna” of Palermo, through the Zooprophilactic Institute. Quantitative determination of OCs and PCBs in the samples examined has been carried out using HRGC-ECD and GC-MS. The results obtained show the presence of concentrations of ∑DDT and ∑PCB in almost all samples. Regarding ∑DDT (4,4^′-DDE, 2,4^′-DDD, 4,4^′-DDD, 2,4^′-DDT, and 4,4^′-DDT), the highest concentrations were found in intestine (0.411 ± 0.050 μg/g) followed by muscle (0.130 ± 0.017 μg/g) and liver samples (0.109 ± 0.014 μg/g). As regards the ∑PCB congeners (PCB-28, PCB-52, PCB-95, PCB-99, PCB-101, PCB-110, PCB-138, PCB-146, PCB-149, PCB-151, PCB-153, PCB-170, PCB-177, PCB-180, PCB-183, and PCB-187), the highest concentrations were found in intestine (1.686 ± 0.144 μg/g) followed by liver (1.064 ± 0.162 μg/g) and muscle samples (0.797 ± 0.078 μg/g). Our data deserve particular attention not only for their significance but especially because they were recorded in Sicily, a region with a very low risk of environmental pollution due to the shortage of industries.     

A multi-objective approach to solid waste management

The issue addressed in this paper consists in the localization and dimensioning of transfer stations, which constitute a necessary intermediate level in the logistic chain of the solid waste stream, from municipalities to the incinerator. Contextually, the determination of the number and type of vehicles involved is carried out in an integrated optimization approach. The model considers both initial investment and operative costs related to transportation and transfer stations. Two conflicting objectives are evaluated, the minimization of total cost and the minimization of environmental impact, measured by pollution. The design of the integrated waste management system is hence approached in a multi-objective optimization framework. To determine the best means of compromise, goal programming, weighted sum and fuzzy multi-objective techniques have been employed. The proposed analysis highlights how different attitudes of the decision maker towards the logic and structure of the problem result in the employment of different methodologies and the obtaining of different results. The novel aspect of the paper lies in the proposal of an effective decision support system for operative waste management, rather than a further contribution to the transportation problem. The model was applied to the waste management of optimal territorial ambit (OTA) of Palermo (Italy).     

Soil carbon dynamics in a Mediterranean forest during the Kyoto Protocol commitment periods

The purpose of the present work is to asses the possibility of detecting changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) at the end of the 5-years of the first Commitment Period (CP) of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (1 January, 2008–31 December, 2012), by both direct measurement and the use of an opportunely evaluated SOC model, CENTURY. The investigated soil is young, developed since 28 years on virtually C-free spoil banks and under the influence of two managed forest stands, one a mix of English oak (Quercus robur L.) and Italian alder (Alnus cordata Loisel.) and the other pure English oak. The SOC stock of either stand was monitored since the time the stands were planted in 1981, and it was used together with other parameters for the model evaluation, while the future projections for the end of the first (2012) and second (2017) CP were made according to two extreme IPCC climatic scenarios: A1F1, the most dramatic, and B2, among the less impacting. Direct SOC measurements performed at the beginning and at the end of a time frame equivalent to a commitment period (2004–2008) had not shown significant variations in either stands. Compared to the 2008 SOC stock, in both stands the model shows variations at the end of the first CP from 0.7 to 1.8 Mg C ha⁻¹ for the A1F1 scenario and from 0.3 to 1.7 Mg C ha⁻¹ for the B2. These variations are within the standard deviations of the C stocks measured in 2008. On the contrary, at the end of the second CP, the modelled SOC increments range from 2.5 to 3.6 Mg C ha⁻¹ (A1F1) or from 1.9 to 3.4 Mg C ha⁻¹ (B2), indicating the possibility to detect the SOC changes by direct measurement, since the values well agree with the minimum detectable variation estimated for both sites in 3.3–4.5 Mg C ha⁻¹. This work shows that SOC stock changes measured directly in the field can be minimal at the end of both CPs, and that CENTURY well simulates the SOC dynamics of the stands. The use of such a model, validated at long-term experimental sites, hence represents an effective tool for estimating future changes in SOC amounts in support of direct measurements when a short period of time, such as the CP, is considered.     

Incipient speciation within a subgenus of rockfish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Sebastosomus</Emphasis>) provides evidence of recent radiations within an ancient species flock

The high frequency of speciation events associated with species flocks (i.e., radiations of closely related species) provides invaluable insight into the speciation process. Investigations of the speciation process in the marine environment are rare, and therefore, the genetic analysis of the rockfish genus Sebastes, considered an ancient marine species flock, provides an opportunity to investigate this process in the sea. Using both mitochondrial and nuclear markers, we analyzed five closely related species within the rockfish subgenus Sebastosomus. Our goal was to understand the evolutionary history and genetic relationships among species within this group and to provide evidence of recent speciation events within the subgenus. In the genetic analysis of the subgenus, we found different stages of the speciation process, with greater genetic divergences among three of the five species, evidence of recent divergence between two of the five species, Sebastes entomelas and S. mystinus, and significant genetic divergence between two lineages within S. mystinus revealing a signature of incipient speciation. We also found frequency differences of the two S. mystinus lineages among sample locations and found no evidence of introgression between the lineages at the location where both coexist. Although Sebastes is an example of an ancient species flock, this study provides evidence of ongoing speciation within the genus and reveals stages of this process from incipient to distinct species.     

PCBs in the eggs of Eurasian kestrels indicate exposure to local pollution

Fail-to-hatch kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) eggs collected at the end of the 1999 and 2005 breeding seasons from nest boxes in and around the city of Rome, Italy, were analyzed by gas chromatography with electron capture detection for their PCB content and for the presence of DDT derivatives and other organochlorines. Among the various PCBs, congeners 153 and 180 were detected in all the eggs and showed the highest concentrations. Eggs collected from the same nest from a polluted location in Rome during 2 different years showed similar type and number of PCB congeners. These data and the fact that eggs from another nest near a sulphate mine had, atypically, low-chlorinated congeners support the conclusion that eggs of this species, whose adults in the Mediterranean and continental Europe perform only short or no migration movements, might be indicative of local pollution. When multiple eggs in the same clutch were analyzed, the PCBs were similar in type but their concentration decreased within clutch, likely in parallel to the laying order.     

Comparison of seasonal variations of ozone exposure and fluxes in a Mediterranean Holm oak forest between the exceptionally dry 2003 and the following year

Ozone and energy fluxes have been measured using the eddy covariance technique, from June to December 2004 in Castelporziano near Rome (Italy), and compared to similar measurements made in the previous year. The studied ecosystem consisted in a typical Mediterranean Holm oak forest. Stomatal fluxes have been calculated using the resistance analogy and by inverting the Penmann-Monteith equation. Results showed that the average stomatal contribution accounts for 42.6% of the total fluxes. Non-stomatal deposition proved to be enhanced by increasing leaf wetness and air humidity during the autumnal months. From a comparison of the two years, it can be inferred that water supply is the most important limiting factor for ozone uptake and that prolonged droughts alter significantly the stomatal conductance, even 2 months after the soil water content is replenished. Ozone exposure, expressed as AOT40, behaves similarly to the cumulated stomatal flux in dry conditions whereas a different behaviour for the two indices appears in wet autumnal conditions. A difference also occurs between the two years.     

Ozone sensitivity of Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus excelsior young trees in relation to leaf structure and foliar ozone uptake

During the summer of 2001, 2-year-old Fraxinus excelsior and Fagus sylvatica plants were subjected to ozone-rich environmental conditions at the Regional Forest Nursery at Curno (Northern Italy). Atmospheric ozone concentrations and stomatal conductance were measured, in order to calculate the foliar fluxes by means of a one-dimensional model. The foliar structure of both species was examined (thickness of the lamina and of the individual tissues, leaf mass per area, leaf density) and chlorophyll a fluorescence was determined as a response parameter. Stomatal conductance was always greater in Fraxinus excelsior, as was ozone uptake, although the highest absorption peaks did not match the peaks of ozone concentration in the atmosphere. The foliar structure can help explain this phenomenon: Fraxinus excelsior has a thicker mesophyll than Fagus sylvatica (indicating a greater photosynthesis potential) and a reduced foliar density. This last parameter, related to the apoplastic fraction, suggests a greater ability to disseminate the gases within the leaf as well as a greater potential detoxifying capacity. As foliar symptoms spread, the parameters relating to chlorophyll a fluorescence also change. PI (Performance Index, Strasser, A., Srivastava, A., Tsimilli-Michael, M., 2000. The fluorescence transient as a tool to characterize and screen photosynthetic samples. In: Yunus, M., Pathre, U., Mohanty, P., (Eds.) Probing Photosynthesis: Mechanisms, Regulation and Adaptation. Taylor & Francis, London, UK, pp. 445-483.) has proved to be a more suitable index than Fv/Fm (Quantum Yield Efficiency) to record the onset of stress conditions.