Waiting for Peace: Perspectives from Action-oriented Research on the Humanitarian Impasse in the Caucasus

Cease-fires in the Caucasus during the past five years have prevented large-scale life-threatening emergencies and created space for peace negotiations. Yet genuine conflict resolution and normalisation have proven elusive, frustrating the return of uprooted populations and constraining reconstruction. This paper reviews a series of seven strategy sessions held in Moscow and the Caucasus in late 1998 to reflect upon the performance of humanitarian agencies and stimulate greater synergies with diplomatic actors. An experiment in promoting discussion of recently conducted independent policy research throughout the north and south Caucasus, the series resulted in a fresh look at the issues in the region and at agency headquarters. The generic nature of the policy challenges gives the experience potential relevance well beyond the region.     

NUTRIENT BALANCES FOR THE EVALUATION OF NUTRIENT SOURCES IN WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT. This paper describes the methodology for a nutrient balance to evaluate the sources and distribution of nutrients in a small river basin. Loadings for total nitrogen and phosphorus are calculated from measured nutrient concentration and river discharge data. Using a special retrieval program and a data storage and processing system, loadings are accumulated over a given time period to allow for time of passage through the basin and seasonal changes in nutrient distribution. Nutrient balances are made with the accumulated loadings to obtain the relative contribution of each nutrient source and the retention of nutrients within the basin through sedimentation and aquatic growth. The methodology has been used to study nutrients in the Qu'Appelle River Basin, Saskatchewan, Canada.     

INCREASES IN SODIUM AND CHLORIDE IN THE MOHAWK RIVER,NEW YORK,FROM THE 1950'S TO THE 1970'S ATTRIBUTED TO ROAD SALT1

Regression analyses of major ion concentration in relation to specific conductance of water from the Mohawk River during two separate periods, 1951–53 and 1970–74, indicate statistically insignificant changes in the linear relationship of all constituents studied except chloride. Mean values and changes in the slopes of these relationships indicate that sodium and chloride have had consistently higher yields, in kilograms per square kilometer per year, than the other ions, although all ions show a general 20 percent increase in yields during the two decades. This general increase in ion yields is attributed to an accelerated transport rate of ions out of the basin as a result of a 19 percent increase in mean stream discharge. Transport rates of sodium and chloride have increased by 72 and 145 percent, respectively, in the Mohawk River since the early 1950's. Analysis of the sodium and chloride sources indicates rock salt used as a road deicei to be the primary source. This salt use accounts for 96 percent of the sodium transport increase and 69 percent of the chloride transport increase within the basin during the last two decades.     

GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT1

There are four groundwater resources to be managed: yield, storage capacity, water-in-storage, and transmissivity. Management concepts have changed over the years, with today's concept which covers comprehensive integrated use of the four groundwater resources with surface water resources to provide the most efficient water service for an area in terms of quantity, quality, and cost. Complete geologic and hydrologic understanding provides a base for formulation of plans which can utilize the techniques of artificial recharge, control of sea water intrusion, and variation of pumping patterns while protecting the resources through proper well construction and abandonment, placement of sanitary landfills, and liquid waste disposal. Plan formulation involves varying recharge and extraction amounts while maintaining the total of pumped groundwater and developed surface water equal to the projected and future demand. Physical limitations of the system must be recognized to assure reality of the plans. Legal constraints should not be placed on the plan formulation process. A present worth or other technique is used to provide an economic comparison among plans. Implementation will entail development of legal and organizational structure, with the most difficult problems relating to the management organization in terms of boundaries and powers.     

SME environmental attitudes and participation in local‐scale voluntary initiatives: some practical applications

This paper briefly assesses the economic efficiency case for voluntary initiatives (VIs), discusses some limitations of this type of policy instrument and goes on to consider the role that local‐scale voluntary initiatives might play in assisting small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to embrace the issue of environmental performance improvement. The paper examines SME organizational management in relation to the likely effectiveness of their participation in voluntary environment programmes. An environmental attitudes survey carried out with 62 SMEs in East Anglia found that willingness to become involved in such initiatives does exist, but that a better presentation of opportunities for prospective small firms, together with a more tailored approach, will be necessary if VIs for SMEs are to become a more extensive feature of environmental policy making in the UK.     

Constituency Bias in a Federal Resource Management Agency: a Confirmatory Analysis

In a 1989 article, Ben Twight and Fremont Lyden compared the attitudes of national forest managers in the United States in 1981 with those of its major constituents to assess the extent to which the U.S. Forest Service was biased: were the beliefs and values of agency employees concerning resource management more representative of one of two major constituent groups, environmentalists and forest utilizers? The research tested Culhane's (Public Lands Politics: Interest Group Influence on the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management. Baltimore, Maryland: John Hopkins University Press. 1981) theory that the Forest Service occupies a middle ground in its attitudes relative to those of its environmental and utilization constituencies. They concluded that the agency did not; ideologically, district rangers were quite close to the Forest Service's utilizer constituency and relatively far from its environmentalist constituency. Given recent changes in the attitudes of Forest Services managers, the present study sought to answer the question: what do these changes reveal about the ideological position of the agency in 1981 vis a vis its position in 1990, and what are their implications for continuing concerns over the agency's representation of all interest groups? The response to survey questions of four groups—1990 district rangers and district rangers, environmentalists and forest utilizers in 1981—were combined for statistical comparison. Discriminant analyses were conducted to clarify the differences in the groups. Although the hypothesized bias of the Forest Service toward the traditional utilizer position was confirmed, the results also suggested that managers' values and attitudes had changed over the decade. The major issue underlying this bias—preservation versus utilization of resources—no longer adequately represented the agency's position, which has been fragmented into concerns with multiple issues.     

FLOOD-RUNOFF FORECASTING WITH HEC1F1

HEC1F is a computer program for making short- to medium-term forecasts of uncontrolled flood runoff. The program employs unit hydrographs and hydrologic routing to simulate runoff from a subdivided basin. Estimates of future rainfall can be accommodated. Runoff parameters for gaged headwater subbasins can be estimated (optimized) in real time. Blending of calculated with observed hydrographs can be performed. HEC1F is a component of an on-line software system that includes capability for data acquisition and processing, precipitation analysis, streamflow forecasting, reservoir system analysis, and graphical display of data and simulation results. The conceptual framework for HEC1F is described, and application of the program is illustrated.     

PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD ESTIMATION-EASTERN UNITED STATES1

In 1982, the National Weather Service (NWS) published criteria for developing the spatial and temporal precipitation distribution characteristics of Probable Maximum Storms. The criteria, which are intended for use in the United States east of the 105th meridian, involve four variables: (1) location of the storm center, (2) storm-area size, (3) storm orientation, and (4) temporal arrangement of precipitation amounts. A computer program has been developed which applies the NWS criteria to produce hyetographs of spatially-averaged precipitation for a basin, or for each subbasin if the basin is subdividided. The basis and operational characteristics of the program are described, and an application is illustrated in which the program is used in conjunction with a precipitation-runoff simulation program (HEC-1) to compute a Probable Maximum Flood.