COMPARISON OF TWO AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY STREAM FLOW GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two autoregressive models for monthly stream flow generation are compared based on the reproduction of the historical record in terms of several important statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, skewness coefficient, correlation coefficient, and the reservoir storage components. In the comparison, both theoretical considerations and practical applications are employed to evaluate the performance of each model.     

Spore inhibition-based enzyme substrate assay for monitoring of aflatoxin M1 in milk

A spore germination-based concept and its transformation into a field level prototype for monitoring aflatoxin M₁ (AFM₁) in milk was developed. Initially, 15 strains of Bacillus spp. procured from different culture collection were screened for AFM₁ sensitivity using spot assay and marker strain showing inhibition at 0.5 ppb was selected based upon maximum zone of inhibition. The selected strain B. megaterium 2949 was further screened for different enzymes activities and subsequently its spores were produced to an extent of 73.13% ± 3.197% in newly developed sporulation medium containing beef extract (0.0075% ± 0.0004%), yeast extract (0.015% ± 0.001%), peptone (0.0375% ± 0.0016%), and sodium chloride (0.0375% ± 0.0018%). A spore germination-based concept/ assay was optimized by immobilizing spores in eppendorf with pretreated milk (80°C/15 min) containing germinant and chromogenic substrate followed by incubation at 37°C. The appearance of sky blue color within real time of 45 min indicated spores germination and release of specific marker enzyme such as acetyl esterase and its specific action on chromogenic substrate which demonstrates absence of AFM₁ in milk. However, if there was no color change, presence of AFM₁ at 0.5 ppb MRL was denoted by Codex. The developed concept on AFM₁ detection was validated and a correlation of 0.97 was established with AOAC approved Charm 6602 and ELISA at Codex MRL with minimal false positive and negative results. The cost effective test has potential application in dairy farms, manufacturing, and R&D units for routine monitoring of AFM₁ in milk.     

Risk analysis of an LPG storage facility in India

An assignment to carry out a hazard study and risk analysis of a gas processing complex has been described briefly, wherein well known procedures have been used to identify and investigate potential hazards. A method of avoiding unintentional overfilling of LPG storage tanks has been recommended, which utilizes the existing level control instruments.     

Uncertainty-based quantitative assessment of sustainability for higher education institutions

Evaluation of sustainability in various facets of life is gaining increasing importance. Traditionally, different multi-criteria decision-making methods have been used for sustainability assessment. “Sustainability” can be a qualitative concept, and as such several researchers have attempted fuzzy logic for the quantitative assessment of sustainability. This paper outlines a new evaluation model based on fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making. The model is tested for sustainability assessment of higher education institutions (HEIs). It is based on a driving force–pressure–state–exposure–effect–action (DPSEEA) framework and is called uncertainty-based DPSEEA-Sustainability index Model (uD-SiM). The uD-SiM is a causality-based model in which the sustainability index is an outcome of nonlinear impacts of sustainability indicators in different stages of DPSEEA. The percent contribution of driving forces on the sustainability index of HEI is investigated using sensitivity analysis. The study reveals that education in sustainability and global and local research trends are the major driving forces for achieving sustainability in HEI, followed by financial and economic growth rate, social equity, energy requirements rate, and institutional enhancement, in descending order. The results of uD-SiM were found to be more realistic and rational than our earlier proposed approach, D-SiM.     

Gaseous and particulate emissions from thermal power plants operating on different technologies

This paper presents the assessment of gaseous and particulate emissions from thermal power plants operating on different combustion technologies. Four thermal power plants operating on heavy furnace oil were selected for the study, among which three were based on diesel engine technology, while the fourth plant was based on oil-fired steam turbine technology. The stack emissions were monitored for critical air pollutants carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, lead, and mercury. The pollutant emissions were measured at optimum load conditions for a period of 6 months with an interval of 1 month. The results of stack emissions were compared with National Environmental Quality Standards of Pakistan and World Bank guidelines for thermal power plants, and few parameters were found higher than the permissible limits of emissions. It was observed that the emissions carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, and particulate matters from diesel engine-based power plants were comparatively higher than the turbine-based power plants. The emissions of sulfur dioxide were high in all the plants, even the plants with different technologies, which was mainly due to high sulfur contents in fuel.     

Conservation of biodiversity in western India

Director of environmental studies at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Human Ecology, Environmental and Population Studies at the University of Rajasthan. This paper describes the biodiversity in the north-western Indian State of Rajasthan, its relationship with the environment and the existing human and livestock populations. As the biodiversity is depleting in this area due to zoogenic and anthropogenic reasons, certain pragmatic conservation strategies are advocated. The north-western part of India is occupied by a desert ecosystem, the Thar Desert. Animal husbandry is the major livelihood in the region, followed by agriculture. The vegetation, which is predominantly xerophytic and quite sparse, occurs in great variety. Six hundred and eighty-two plant species and 390 animal species have been identified from the Thar Desert. Many plant and animal species have become endangered due to zoogenic and anthropogenic activities. Plants such as Calligonum polygonoides, Tecomella undulata and Prosopis cineraria urgently require conservation.     

GROUND WATER SIMULATION USING A ONE DIMENSIONAL FLOW MODEL1

ABSTRACT: In projects involving ground water problems, dependence on the mathematical modeling of the ground water flow phenomena is inescapable. At present, two dimensional flow models, which require tremendous amounts of computer time and storage, are generally used. When such bulky models are used for planning purposes, the two requirements (computer time and storage) can severely limit the number of alternatives that can be considered. A simple quantity and quality simulation model is developed here which requires considerably less computer time and storage and gives reasonably accurate results. The model was applied to simulate a ground water basin in San Luis Rey River in Southern California. The results were compared with those obtained by a USGS model. It was found that the simple model gave results which were consistentaly within five percent of the USGS model results, while the requirements on computer time and storage were drastically reduced.     

The international natural rubber agreement 1979

The International Natural Rubber Agreement (INRA) 1979 is the first, and so far the only, commodity agreement to emerge from the negotiations under the Integrated Programme for Commodities (IPC). The agreement is examined in the context of the issues relating to international stock and as an indicator for future development. The author concludes that while the principle of joint responsibility for financing international stock has been for the first time accepted in INRA, this has been achieved at the cost of reducing the scope of the regulatory mechanism, and that the single-instrument pattern that the agreement has adopted may not be suitable or acceptable in other commodities.     

Reproduction in mice treated with crufomate: effects of dermal treatments on female mice and on their progeny.

Dermal treatments with crufomate 100 or 50 mg/kg or crufomate vehicle 100 mg/kg were applied to mice either on days 35 and 21 before mating or on days 70, 56, 35, and 21 before mating. Two, but not four dermal treatments, with both doses of crufomate reduced the mating reponse and conception rate in mice. The mice either did not produce a litter or the litter died before the age of 7 days. Four treatments with crufomate 100 mg/kg, but not with 50 mg/kg, reduced the weaning weight of progeny weaned at the age of 21 days. The vehicle had no effects on reproduction and increased the weights at maturity of female and male progeny of mice given two and four treatments, respectively.