A new approach to the "apparent survival" problem: estimating true survival rates from mark-recapture studies

Survival estimates generated from live capture-mark-recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term "apparent survival." Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias-adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model consistently eliminated negative biases shown by apparent survival estimates from standard models. When applied to a case study concerning juvenile survival in the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), bias-adjusted survival estimates increased more than twofold above apparent survival estimates. Our approach is applicable to any capture-mark-recapture study design and should be particularly valuable for organisms with dispersive juvenile life stages.     

Long-term population dynamics of seeded plants in invaded grasslands

In recent decades, dozens of studies have involved attempts to introduce native and desirable nonnative plant species into grasslands dominated by invasive weeds. The newly introduced plants have proved capable of establishing, but because they are rarely monitored for more than four years, it is unknown if they have a high likelihood of persisting and suppressing invaders for the long-term. Beyond invaded grasslands, this lack of long-term monitoring is a general problem plaguing efforts to reintroduce a range of taxa into a range of ecosystems. We introduced species from seed and then periodically measured plant abundances for nine years at one site and 15 years at a second site. To our knowledge, our 15-year data are the longest to date from a seeding experiment in invaded, never-cultivated grassland. At one site, three seeded grasses maintained high densities for three or more years, but then all or nearly all individuals died. At the second site, one grass performed similarly, but two other grasses proliferated and at least one greatly suppressed the dominant invader (Centaurea maculosa). In one study, our point estimate suggests that the seeded grass Thinopyrum intermedium reduced C. maculosa biomass by 93% 15 years after seeding. In some cases, data from three and fewer years after seeding falsely suggested that seeded species were capable of persisting within the invaded grassland. In other cases, data from as late as nine years after seeding falsely suggested seeded populations would not become large enough to suppress the invader. These results show that seeded species sometimes persist and suppress invaders for long periods, but short-term data cannot predict if, when, or where this will occur. Because short-term data are not predictive of long-term seeded species performances, additional long-term data are needed to identify effective practices, traits, and species for revegetating invaded grasslands.     

Landscape-level influences of terrestrial snake occupancy within the southeastern United States

Habitat loss and degradation are thought to be the primary drivers of species extirpations, but for many species we have little information regarding specific habitats that influence occupancy. Snakes are of conservation concern throughout North America, but effective management and conservation are hindered by a lack of basic natural history information and the small number of large-scale studies designed to assess general population trends. To address this information gap, we compiled detection/nondetection data for 13 large terrestrial species from 449 traps located across the southeastern United States, and we characterized the land cover surrounding each trap at multiple spatial scales (250-, 500-, and 1000-m buffers). We used occupancy modeling, while accounting for heterogeneity in detection probability, to identify habitat variables that were influential in determining the presence of a particular species. We evaluated 12 competing models for each species, representing various hypotheses pertaining to important habitat features for terrestrial snakes. Overall, considerable interspecific variation existed in important habitat variables and relevant spatial scales. For example, kingsnakes (Lampropeltis getula) were negatively associated with evergreen forests, whereas Louisiana pinesnake (Pituophis ruthveni) occupancy increased with increasing coverage of this forest type. Some species were positively associated with grassland and scrub/shrub (e.g., Slowinski's cornsnake, Elaphe slowinskii) whereas others, (e.g., copperhead, Agkistrodon contortrix, and eastern diamond-backed rattlesnake, Crotalus adamanteus) were positively associated with forested habitats. Although the species that we studied may persist in varied landscapes other than those we identified as important, our data were collected in relatively undeveloped areas. Thus, our findings may be relevant when generating conservation plans or restoration goals. Maintaining or restoring landscapes that are most consistent with the ancestral habitat preferences of terrestrial snake assemblages will require a diverse habitat matrix over large spatial scales.     

Older adult falls at a metropolitan airport: 2009-2010

IntroductionWe investigated falls at a metropolitan airport to determine fall incidence, identify potential causes of these falls, and suggest opportunities for mitigation.MethodsWe used deidentified incident reports of all falls requiring EMS response that occurred at the airport during 2009 and 2010.ResultsOn average, one fall occurred every 2.3 days. Ninety-six percent (96%) of falls occurred in terminals. Of all falls, 44% occurred on escalators, making escalators the most common location. Seventy-two percent (72%) of fallers were females; 43% were ≥ 65 years; 92% of all falls resulted in a documented injury; 37% of falls resulted in transport to hospital emergency departments. Escalator fall risks include carrying bags (due to changes in baggage fees), using cells phones, not using handrails, and compromised strength and balance.Conclusions and ImpactDiverting at-risk passengers to elevators could significantly reduce the overall falls. Interventions targeting escalator falls have the greatest promise for reducing falls at this airport.     

Investigating cervical muscle response and head kinematics during right, left, frontal and rear-seated perturbations

Objective: Whiplash research has largely focused on rear collisions because they account for the majority of whiplash injuries. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of 4 perturbation directions (anterior, posterior, right, and left) on muscle activity and head kinematics to provide insight into the whiplash mechanism of injury. Methods: The effects of 4 perturbation directions induced by a parallel robotic platform, with peak acceleration of 8.50?m/s(2), were analyzed on 10 subjects. Surface electromyography (EMG) measures were collected from the sternocleidomastoid (SCM), trapezius, and splenius capitus muscles. Kinematics of the head, thorax, and head relative to thorax were also measured. Results: We observed stereotypic responses for kinematics and SCM EMG for the various perturbation directions; the trapezius and splenius capitus muscles showed amplitudes that were less than 5 percent maximum voluntary contraction (MVC). Rear perturbations elicited the smallest onset latencies for the SCM (30?ms) and kinematic variables and greatest linear head center of mass (COM) accelerations. Frontal perturbations resulted in an average SCM onset latency of 143?ms and demonstrated the greatest magnitude of head translations and rotations relative to the thorax. Left and right perturbations demonstrated similar kinematics and SCM onset latencies (55 and 65?ms, respectively). Conclusions: Compared to frontal, left, and right directions, rear perturbations showed smaller SCM onset latencies, greater SCM amplitudes, and larger head accelerations, relating to a greater potential for injury. We suggest that the greater contact area and stiffness of the seatback, in the posterior direction, compared to restrictions in other directions, led to increased peak head accelerations and shorter SCM onset latencies.     

Effect of hyposalinity on the photophysiology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Siderastrea radians</Emphasis>

Tolerance to hyposalinity of the scleractinian coral S. radians was examined in a mesocosm study. Colonies of S. radians were collected from five basins in Florida Bay, USA, which occur along a northeast-to-southwest salinity gradient. Salinity treatments were based on historical salinity records for these basins. Photophysiology of the endosymbiont Symbiodinium spp. (maximum quantum yield; F _v/F _m) was measured as an indicator of holobiont stress to hyposalinity. Colonies from each basin were assigned four salinity treatments [The Practical Salinity Scale (PSS) was used to determine salinity. Units are not assigned to salinity values because it is a ratio and has no unit as defined by UNESCO (UNESCO Technical papers no. 45, IAPSO Pub. Sci. No. 32, Paris, France, 1985)] (30, 20, 15, and 10) and salinities were reduced 2 per day from ambient (30) to simulate a natural salinity decrease. Colonies treated with salinities of 20 and 15 showed no decrease in F _v/F _m versus controls (i.e. 30), up to 5 days after reaching their target salinity. This indicates a greater ability to withstand reduced salinity for relatively extended periods of time in S. radians compared to other reef species. Within 1 day after salinity of 10 was reached, there was a significant reduction in F _v/F _m, indicating a critical threshold for hyposaline tolerance. At the lowest treatment salinity (10), F _v/F _m for the more estuarine, northeast-basin colonies were significantly higher than the most marine southwest-basin colonies (Twin Key Basin). Our results suggest that historical salinity ranges within basins determine coral population salinity tolerances.     

Formulation and testing of a novel river nitrification model

The nitrification process in many river water quality models has been approximated by a simple first order dependency on the water column ammonia concentration, while the benthic contribution has routinely been neglected. In this study a mathematical framework was developed for sediment bed nitrification based on mass transfer theory and Monod bacterial growth kinetics. The model describes ammonia transport across the boundary layer and consumption within the biofilm to quantify the overall nitrification flux. Model results suggest that nitrification is usually controlled by the boundary layer thickness, and we estimated a nitrification velocity range between 0.14 and 0.97 m d⁻¹, assuming typical boundary thicknesses of 0.1–1.0 mm. These ranges compared favorably with reported literature values, including our own measurements. The model was applied to several river systems of different depths where nitrification rates and river depths were available. Assuming that nitrification is exclusively a benthic process, the average velocity of all the rivers evaluated was 0.85 m d⁻¹ (r² = 0.72).     

A spatial model of white sturgeon rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River,USA

Concerns over the potential effects of in-water placement of dredged materials prompted us to develop a GIS-based model that characterizes in a spatially explicit manner white sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River, USA. The spatial model was developed using water depth, riverbed slope and roughness, fish positions collected in 2002, and Mahalanobis distance (D²). We created a habitat suitability map by identifying a Mahalanobis distance under which >50% of white sturgeon locations occurred in 2002 (i.e., high-probability habitat). White sturgeon preferred relatively moderate to high water depths, and low to moderate riverbed slope and roughness values. The eigenvectors indicated that riverbed slope and roughness were slightly more important than water depth, but all three variables were important. We estimated the impacts that fill might have on sturgeon habitat by simulating the addition of fill to the thalweg, in 3-m increments, and recomputing Mahalanobis distances. Channel filling simulations revealed that up to 9 m of fill would have little impact on high-probability habitat, but 12 and 15 m of fill resulted in habitat declines of ∼12% and ∼45%, respectively. This is the first spatially explicit predictive model of white sturgeon rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River, and the first to quantitatively predict the impacts of dredging operations on sturgeon habitat. Future research should consider whether water velocity improves the accuracy and specificity of the model, and to assess its applicability to other areas in the Columbia River.     

Social network analysis and valid Markov chain Monte Carlo tests of null models

Analyses of animal social networks derived from group-based associations often rely on randomisation methods developed in ecology (Manly, Ecology 76:1109–1115, 1995) and made available to the animal behaviour community through implementation of a pair-wise swapping algorithm by Bejder et al. (Anim Behav 56:719–725, 1998). We report a correctable flaw in this method and point the reader to a wider literature on the subject of null models in the ecology literature. We illustrate the importance of correcting the method using a toy network and use it to make a preliminary analysis of a network of associations among eagle rays.

Animal social networks: an introduction

Network analysis has a long history in the mathematical and social sciences and the aim of this introduction is to provide a brief overview of the potential that it holds for the study of animal behaviour. One of the most attractive features of the network paradigm is that it provides a single conceptual framework with which we can study the social organisation of animals at all levels (individual, dyad, group, population) and for all types of interaction (aggressive, cooperative, sexual etc.). Graphical tools allow a visual inspection of networks which often helps inspire ideas for testable hypotheses. Network analysis itself provides a multitude of novel statistical tools that can be used to characterise social patterns in animal populations. Among the important insights that networks have facilitated is that indirect social connections matter. Interactions between individuals generate a social environment at the population level which in turn selects for behavioural strategies at the individual level. A social network is often a perfect means by which to represent heterogeneous relationships in a population. Probing the biological drivers for these heterogeneities, often as a function of time, forms the basis of many of the current uses of network analysis in the behavioural sciences. This special issue on social networks brings together a diverse group of practitioners whose study systems range from social insects over reptiles to birds, cetaceans, ungulates and primates in order to illustrate the wide-ranging applications of network analysis. This contribution is part of the special issue “Social Networks: new perspectives” (Guest Editors: J. Krause, D. Lusseau and R. James).