How to get there? Assessing motorists' flash flood risk perception on daily itineraries

Flash floods are characterized by their suddenness, fast and violent movement, rarity, small scale but high level of damage. They are particularly difficult to forecast accurately and there is little lead time for warning. This makes motorists especially vulnerable. Assuming that these flash flood hazard specificities may be the significant factors leading to difficulties for drivers to perceive danger, we used cognitive mapping combined with GIS data processing to assess motorists' flash flood risk perception on their daily itineraries. The analysis of 200 mental maps collected allows planners to have maps highlighting dangerous areas where risk perception is weak and to identify reasons for this.     

‘Natural’ disaster? A retrospect into the causes of the late-2004 typhoon disaster in Eastern Luzon,Philippines

Between 14 November and 4 December 2004, four successive tropical depressions and typhoons lashed the Eastern coast of Luzon in the Philippines. Heavy rainfall triggered massive landslides and devastating flash floods, which brought tremendous damage and killed more than 1600 people. Immediately after the disaster, there was a media and political consensus to incrimate ‘extraordinary’ natural phenomena and widespread deforestation as responsible for the catastrophe. We argue that the tragedy that befell the municipalities of General Nakar, Infanta and Real, among other devastated areas, is enmeshed in a deeper tangle of causal factors that are political, socio-economic and demographic in nature. These factors include unmanaged population growth, difficult access to land and resources, corruption within the government, and power of the elite.     

Monitoring, modeling, and management impacts of bivalve filter feeders in the oligohaline and tidal fresh regions of the Chesapeake Bay system

Populations of bivalve filter feeders are distributed throughout the oligohaline waters of the Chesapeake Bay system and, to a lesser extent, in tidal fresh waters as well. Previous studies indicate these bivalves significantly diminish phytoplankton concentrations in one major tributary, the Potomac River, and observed chlorophyll concentrations suggest bivalve influence on phytoplankton in other oligohaline reaches. We incorporated a model of these bivalves into an existing eutrophication model of the system. The model indicated that bivalves may reduce phytoplankton concentrations in oligohaline and tidal fresh waters throughout the system but the most significant effects were noted in the Potomac and Patuxent tributaries. Bivalve impacts were related to hydraulic residence time. The greatest phytoplankton reductions occurred in the regions with the longest residence time. Model carbon and nutrient budgets indicated bivalves removed 14% to 40% of the carbon load, 11% to 23% of the nitrogen load, and 37% to 84% of the phosphorus load to the regions where their impact on computed chlorophyll was greatest.     

Fossil fuel divestment: implications for the future of sustainability discourse and action within higher education

This paper provides a critical overview and analysis of the student-led fossil fuel divestment (FFD) movement and its impact on sustainability discourse and actions within US higher education. Analysing higher education institutes’ (HEIs) divestment press releases and news reports shows how institutional alignment with cultures of sustainability and social justice efforts played key roles in HEIs’ decisions to divest from fossil fuels. Key stated reasons for rejection were: minimal or unknown impact of divestment, risk to the endowment, and fiduciary duty. Participant observation and interviews with protagonists reveal the intricate power structures and vested business interests that influence boardroom divestment decision-making. While some HEIs embrace transformative climate actions, we contend that higher education largely embraces a business-as-usual sustainability framework characterised by a reformist green-economy discourse and a reluctance to move beyond business-interest responses to climate politics. Nonetheless, the FFD movement is pushing HEIs to move from compliance-oriented sustainability behaviour towards a more proactive and highly politicised focus on HEIs’ stance in the modern fossil fuel economy. We offer conceptual approaches and practical directions for reorienting sustainability within HEIs to prioritise the intergenerational equity of its students and recognise climate change as a social justice issue. Fully integrating sustainability into the core business of HEIs requires leadership to address fundamental moral questions of both equity and responsibility for endowment investments. We contend that HEIs must re-evaluate their role in averting catastrophic climate change, and extend their influence in catalysing public climate discourse and actions through a broader range of external channels, approaches, and actors.     

Solid waste workers and livelihood strategies in Greater Port-au-Prince,Haiti

The solid waste management industry in Haiti is comprised of a formal and an informal sector. Many basic activities in the solid waste management sector are being carried out within the context of profound poverty, which exposes the failure of the socioeconomic and political system to provide sufficient job opportunities for the urban population. This paper examines the involvement of workers in the solid waste management industry in Greater Port-au-Prince and the implications for livelihood strategies. The findings revealed that the Greater Port-au-Prince solid waste management system is very inclusive with respect to age, while highly segregated with regard to gender. In terms of earning capacity, the results showed that workers hired by the State agencies were the most economically vulnerable group as more than 50% of them fell below the official nominal minimum wage. This paper calls for better salary scales and work compensation for the solid waste workers.     

Error estimations of dry deposition velocities of air pollutants using bulk sea surface temperature under common assumptions

It is well known that skin sea surface temperature (SSST) is different from bulk sea surface temperature (BSST) by a few tenths of a degree Celsius. However, the extent of the error associated with dry deposition (or uptake) estimation by using BSST is not well known. This study tries to conduct such an evaluation using the on-board observation data over the South China Sea in the summers of 2004 and 2006. It was found that when a warm layer occurred, the deposition velocities using BSST were underestimated within the range of 0.8–4.3%, and the absorbed sea surface heat flux was overestimated by 21 W m^?2. In contrast, under cool skin only conditions, the deposition velocities using BSST were overestimated within the range of 0.5–2.0%, varying with pollutants and the absorbed sea surface heat flux was underestimated also by 21 W m^?2. Scale analysis shows that for a slightly soluble gas (e.g., NO₂, NO and CO), the error in the solubility estimation using BSST is the major source of the error in dry deposition estimation. For a highly soluble gas (e.g., SO₂), the error in the estimation of turbulent heat fluxes and, consequently, aerodynamic resistance and gas-phase film resistance using BSST is the major source of the total error. In contrast, for a medium soluble gas (e.g., O₃ and CO₂) both the errors from the estimations of the solubility and aerodynamic resistance are important. In addition, deposition estimations using various assumptions are discussed. The largest uncertainty is from the parameterizations for chemical enhancement factors. Other important areas of uncertainty include: (1) various parameterizations for gas-transfer velocity; (2) neutral-atmosphere assumption; (3) using BSST as SST, and (4) constant pH value assumption.     

A spatiotemporal Richards–Schnute growth model and its estimation when data are collected through length-stratified sampling

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - We propose a spatiotemporal generalized von Bertalanffy (vonB) growth model that also includes between-individual (BI) variation and male/female...     

The Precautionary Principle as a Robust Cost-Effectiveness Problem

This paper offers an interpretation of the precautionary principle in terms of a safety target that a decision-maker has to reach at a minimal cost in a robust way. A two-period model is used. The precautionary principle corresponds to a situation in which the decision-maker, facing an ex ante indecision, is not able to reach a safe target from the initial condition in a worst-case framework. However, he can efficiently succeed whenever the uncertainty at the second period is revealed to him. An example coping with the management of a renewable resource illustrates the general results of the paper.