MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

Rapid amino acid cycling in arctic and antarctic soils

Amino acids constitute one of the largest inputs of organic nitrogen (N) to most polar soils and have been hypothesized to be important in regulating vegetational succession and productivity in Arctic ecosystems. Our understanding of amino acid cycling in these soils, however, is poor. The aim of this study was to investigate the size and rate of turnover of the amino acid pool in a range of Arctic and Antarctic soils. Our results indicate that in polar soils with either high or low ornithogenic inputs the amino acid pool is small in comparison to the inorganic N pool (NO^? ₃ and NH⁺ ₄). The free amino acid pool constituted only a small proportion of the total dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) pool in these soils. Here we show that these low concentrations may be due to rapid use by the soil microbial community in both Arctic and Antarctic soils. The turnover of the amino acid pool in soil was extremely rapid, with a half-life ranging from 2 to 24 h, indicating that this N pool can be turned over many hundred times each summer when polar soils are frequently unfrozen. The implications of amino acids in N cycling and plant and microbial nutrition are discussed.     

Detecting the signal of atmospheric N deposition in recent national-scale vegetation change across Britain

Model estimates of NO_y and NH_x deposition across Britain for 1996 (5 km square resolution) were applied as explanatory variables to account for national-scale, fine-grained changes in plant species composition between 1990 and 1998. Plant species data were recorded from up to 27 fixed plots located within a stratified random sample of 596 1 km². The response variable was a cover-weighted Ellenberg fertility score for each plot. Analyses were carried out separately for woodlands, semi-natural grasslands and heaths/bogs. Most of the variation in the botanical response variable occurred between plots within squares and so could not be explained by the model deposition data. NH_x deposition estimates accounted for significant, but small components of between 1 km² variation in the change in Ellenberg score in grasslands (5.6%) and heath/bogs (9.8%) but not woodlands. NO_y deposition estimates were not significantly associated with vegetation change. Linear models provided the best fit and the slope of the relationship was lower for heath/bogs than grasslands. Further signal attribution at sub-kilometre square scales requires the development of fine-grained models of N deposition that can be generalised across regional sampling domains.     

Who changes consumption following residential energy evaluations? local programs need all income groups to achieve kyoto targets

The government of Canada ratified the Kyoto Protocol on 17 December 2002, but over 100 Canadian municipalities had joined the International Council for Local Environmental Intitatives' (ICLEI) Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign up to a decade earlier. A low-cost home energy rating system (HERS) evaluation and individualized energy plan was provided to 420 households in Kitchener, Ontario, from September 2000 to August 2001. To assess the impact of the energy efficiency program, natural gas consumption in the year prior to the evaluation was compared with that in the year following. Overall, a 5% reduction was achieved, but individual responses varied widely. Situational and psychological factors were evaluated for three groups of households: the conservers, the consumers and the steady middle group. Conservers (30% of households) had higher initial energy consumption levels and achieved two-thirds of the potential savings identified by the energy evaluation. Consumers (12% of households) had higher ownership rates of high-efficiency furnaces and water heaters and demonstrated the rebound effect of increased demand for energy services following the evaluation. Low-income groups were the most likely to behave as conservers (42%) while high-income groups were the least likely to be conservers (13%) and the most likely to be consumers. Local programs need to be inclusive of all income groups to increase participation and implementation rates by systematically reducing barriers (financial, knowledge, trust) or increasing incentives (financial, regulatory or social) if the desired goal (e.g. Kyoto target) is to be achieved.     

A Comparison of Campfire Impacts and Policies in Seven Protected Areas

Using resource-monitoring data from seven protected areas, the effectiveness of three campfire policies—campfire ban, designated campfires, and unregulated campfires—were assessed based on the number of fire sites and the amount of tree damage. Results indicate that unregulated campfire policies permitted substantial numbers of fire sites and tree damage in campsites, although fire bans did not eliminate or even substantially decrease these problems. A designated campfire policy was effective in decreasing number of fire sites, but little difference was found among policies regarding tree damage. Given the importance of campfires to visitor experiences, campfire prohibitions could be viewed as unnecessarily restrictive based on their limited success in preventing resource damage. Conclusions encourage protected-area managers to consider designated campfire policies and prohibitions on axes, hatchets, and saws to better meet resource protection and visitor experience mandates.     

Hot Spots of Perforated Forest in the Eastern United States

National assessments of forest fragmentation satisfy international biodiversity conventions, but they do not identify specific places where ecological impacts are likely. In this article, we identify geographic concentrations (hot spots) of forest located near holes in otherwise intact forest canopies (perforated forest) in the eastern United States, and we describe the proximate causes in terms of the nonforest land-cover types contained in those hot spots. Perforated forest, defined as a 0.09-ha unit of forest that is located at the center of a 7.29-ha neighborhood containing 60–99% forest with relatively low connectivity, was mapped over the eastern United States by using land-cover maps with roads superimposed. Statistically significant (P < 0.001) hot spots of high perforation rate (perforated area per unit area of forest) were then located by using a spatial scan statistic. Hot spots were widely distributed and covered 20.4% of the total area of the 10 ecological provinces examined, but 50.1% of the total hot-spot area was concentrated in only two provinces. In the central part of the study area, more than 90% of the forest edge in hot spots was attributed to anthropogenic land-cover types, whereas in the northern and southern parts it was more often associated with seminatural land cover such as herbaceous wetlands.     

From Forest Regulation to Participatory Facilitation: Forest Employee Perspectives on Organizational Change and Transformation in India

Despite the critical role of government agencies in decentralizing natural resource governance, little work to date has focused on the organizational aspects of the responsible government bureaucracies. Based on a qualitative investigation of the perspectives of Forest Department employees involved in India's Joint Forest Management (JFM) program, this paper aims to provide an understanding of these internal dynamics. Elaborating on why bureaucracies with a learning orientation are essential if participatory natural resource management is to succeed, the paper underlines the constraints to transforming forest agencies' hierarchical work cultures. Foresters describe JFM as a radical departure from traditional forest governance, but suggest that corresponding transformation within the Forest Department has not occurred. Foresters cite as reasons: (1) a target-based incentive system that leaves little room for establishing the relationships with local people needed for collaborative management; (2) rigid rules and regulations that prevent the flexibility needed for adaptive, site-specific problem-solving; (3) a hierarchical, top-down style of communication that prevents the upper administration from learning what is happening on the ground and stifles initiative by field staff; (4) the need for a committed leadership to reverse this hierarchical culture. They point to the few such team-oriented leaders as the key to transforming the Forest Department and enabling participatory forest management to succeed. The authors also recommend accompanying changes in training and reward systems.     

Long-term effects of sustained beef feedlot manure application on soil nutrients, corn silage yield, and nutrient uptake

A field study was initiated in 1992 to investigate the long-term impacts of beef feedlot manure application (composted and uncomposted) on nutrient accumulation and movement in soil, corn silage yield, and nutrient uptake. Two application strategies were compared: providing the annual crop nitrogen (N) requirement (N-based rate) or crop phosphorus (P) removal (P-based rate), as well as a comparison to inorganic fertilizer. Additionally, effects of a winter cover crop were evaluated. Irrigated corn (Zea mays L.) was produced annually from 1993 through 2002. Average silage yield and crop nutrient removal were highest with N-based manure treatments, intermediate with P-based manure treatments, and least with inorganic N fertilizer. Use of a winter cover crop resulted in silage yield reductions in four of ten years, most likely due to soil moisture depletion in the spring by the cover crop. However, the cover crop did significantly reduce NO3-N accumulation in the shallow vadose zone, particularly in latter years of the study. The composted manure N-based treatment resulted in significantly greater soil profile NO3-N concentration and higher soil P concentration near the soil surface. The accounting procedure used to calculate N-based treatment application rates resulted in acceptable soil profile NO3-N concentrations over the short term. While repeated annual manure application to supply the total crop N requirement may be acceptable for this soil for several years, sustained application over many years carries the risk of unacceptable soil P concentrations.     

White spruce response to co-composted hydrocarbon-contaminated drilling waste: effects of compost age and nitrogen fertilization

There are growing interests to use co-composted drilling wastes contaminated with hydrocarbons as growth media for planting in land reclamation. However, such use of the compost may have potential problems such as inherent toxicity of residual hydrocarbon and microbial N immobilization due to high compost C to N ratios. We investigated the growth, biomass production, N uptake, and foliar delta13C of white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) seedlings in a pot experiment using 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-yr-old composts (with different hydrocarbon concentrations and C to N ratios) and a local noncontaminated soil with (200 kg N ha(-1)) or without N fertilization. Growth and N content of seedlings (particularly N content in roots) were lower when grown in the compost media as compared with those grown in the soil. Within the compost treatments seedling growth was affected by compost age, but the magnitude of growth reduction was not linearly proportional to hydrocarbon concentrations. Plant N uptake increased with compost age, which corresponds with an increase in indigenous mineral N concentration. Effects of N fertilization on N uptake were curtailed by the presence of indigenous mineral N (e.g., in the 4-yr-old compost) and by fertilization-induced stimulation of microbial activities (e.g., in the 1-yr-old compost). The differences in foliar delta13C values between seedlings grown in compost and soil (P < 0.05) suggest that limitations on water uptake caused by the residual hydrocarbon might have been the predominant factor limiting seedling growth in the compost media. This study suggests that water stress caused by residual hydrocarbons may be a critical factor for the successful use of co-composted drilling wastes as a growth medium.     

Residues of endosulfan and other selected organochlorine pesticides in farm areas of the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada

Crop soils, ditch sediments, and water flowing from several farm areas to salmon tributary streams of the Fraser River in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) of British Columbia, Canada, were sampled in 2002-2003 to quantify for residues of an organochlorine cyclodiene pesticide, endosulfan (END = alpha-endosulfan + beta-endosulfan + endosulfan sulfate). Residues from historical use of other selected organochlorine pesticides, namely, cyclodienes (aldrin, alpha-chlordane, gamma-chlordane, dieldrin, endrin, endrin aldehyde, heptachlor, and heptachlor epoxide), hexachlorocyclohexanes [alpha-benzene-hexachloride (alpha-BHC), beta-BHC, delta-BHC, and gamma-BHC (lindane)], and DDT-related compounds (p,p-DDT, p,p-DDD, p,p-DDE, and methoxychlor) were also determined. Reference and background levels of these pesticides in ditches leading to fish streams were obtained from pristine watershed areas. Varying amounts of END residues were detected in soils (<0.02-5.60 mg kg(-1) dry wt.) and ditch sediments (<0.02-3.33 mg kg(-1) dry wt.) in mainly three of five farm areas sampled. Likewise, residues (excluding END) of other selected organochlorine compounds such as aldrin, BHC, chlordane, endrin, p,p-DDT, methoxychlor, and their respective major transformation products (endosulfan sulfate, dieldrin, endrin aldehyde, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide, p,p-DDD, and p,p-DDE) were found in crop soils (<0.02-16.2 mg kg(-1) dry wt.) and sediments (<0.02-9.73 mg kg(-1) dry wt.). Most of these pesticides (END: <0.01-1.86 microg L(-1); other selected organochlorine pesticides: <0.0.1-1.50 microg L(-1)) were also found in ditch water leading to salmon streams in several farms. The END levels of crop soils from the same LFV study farms in 1994 and 2003 indicated an estimated decline of 22% to 1.35 mg kg(-1) dry wt. during that period. This reduction was probably due to the increasing use of alternate pesticides (e.g., organophosphorus compounds). Some possible biological implications of these pesticide residues on nontarget organisms in the LFV are discussed.