Hydrologic modelling for Lake Basaka: development and application of a conceptual water budget model

Quantification of fluxes of water into and out of terminal lakes like Basaka has fundamental challenges. This is due to the fact that accurate measurement and quantification of most of the parameters of a lake’s hydrologic cycle are difficult. Furthermore, quantitative understanding of the hydrologic systems and hence, the data-intensive modelling is difficult in developing countries like Ethiopia due to limitation of sufficient recorded data. Therefore, formulation of a conceptual water balance model is extremely important as it presents a convenient analytical tool with simplified assumptions to simulate the magnitude of unknown fluxes. In the current study, a conceptual lake water balance model was systematically formulated, solved, calibrated, and validated successfully. Then, the surface water and groundwater interaction was quantified, and a mathematical relationship developed. The overall agreement between the observed and simulated lake stage at monthly time step was confirmed based on the standard performance parameters (R ², MAE, RMSE, E _f). The result showed that hydrological water balance of the lake is dominated by the groundwater (GW) component. The net GW flux in recent period (post-2000s) accounts about 56 % of the total water inflow. Hence, GW plays a leading role in the hydrodynamics and existence of Lake Basaka and is mostly responsible for the expansion of the lake. Thus, identification of the potential sources/causes for the GW flux plays a leading role in order to limit the further expansion of the lake. Measurement of GW movement and exchange in the area is a high priority for future research.     

The impact of prenatal diagnosis on the occurrence of chromosome abnormalities

From the public health point of view, several formal attempts have been made to measure the impact of prenatal diagnosis (PND) on the incidence of Down's Syndrome (DS), but the results have varied widely. The impact of PND (reduction in the birth rate of chromosomally abnormal neonates) is related to utilization rates but quantitative estimates of this have not been established. In a three-year (1981–1983) total population study from Queensland, Australia, we present results to measure the impact of a voluntary PND programme on the birth incidence of DS, and also other chromosomally abnormal births. Utilization rates for the PND service were 15·5 per cent in that population of mothers 35 years and over. Numbers and rates of all cases of chromosomal abnormalities are presented, subclassified by type of diagnosis–-either by PND or by clinical diagnosis after birth. For the total population, 7·3 per cent of cases of DS were detected prenatally, and 15·4 per cent of all chromosome abnormalities. (A method for measuring the impact of PND is described.) Using this in conjunction with our demographic data, we estimate that with a 15 per cent utilization rate of PND by older mothers, 14 per cent of DS births can be prevented in this age group, or a 5 per cent overall reduction can be achieved if mothers of all ages are considered. One index–-the ratio of the percentage of DS births which are preventable compared with the population utilization rates of PND–-has potential for widespread use. Queensland data for this ratio is 0·34, a figure consistent with that from other studies. Thus a 3·5 per cent drop in the overall DS birth rate may be expected for each 10 per cent increase in the utilization rates of PND for mothers of 35 years and over. A diagram is presented which may serve as a model for improved data collection and better impact estimates in the future.     

Assessment of carbon leakage in multiple carbon-sink projects: a case study in Jambi Province,Indonesia

Rehabilitation of degraded forest land through implementation of carbon-sink projects can increase terrestrial carbon (C) stock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which is commonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestration benefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon-sink projects that could potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of 11 sub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/cover being converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. The predictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area, distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agricultural land, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, population density and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and without carbon-sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated as being significant in their contribution to land use cover change. The results of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be large enough to more than offset the project’s carbon sequestration benefits during the period 2002–2012. However, leakage results are very sensitive to changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. By reducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10% for the baseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collection and refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study has demonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assess leakage.     

Egg-laying,egg-removal,and ovary development by workers in queenright honey bee colonies

Summary The study investigates whether worker policing via the selective removal of worker-laid male eggs occurs in normal honey bee colonies with a queen. Queenright honey bee colonies were set up with the queen below a queen excluder. Frames of worker brood and drone comb were placed above the queen excluder. Daily inspections of the drone frames revealed the presence of a few eggs, presumably laid by workers, at a rate of 1 egg per 16000 drone cells. 85% of these eggs were removed within 1 day and only 2% hatched. Dissections of workers revealed that about 1 worker in 10000 had a fully developed egg in her body. These data show that worker egg-laying and worker policing are both normal, though rare, in queenright honey bee colonies, and provide further confirmation of the worker policing hypothesis.     

Policing in queenless ponerine ants

Potential reproductive conflicts are common in insect societies. One process that can reduce or suppress conflict is policing. We review worker and "queen" policing in queenless ponerine ants. Queenless ants are an important model system for the study of intracolony reproductive conflict. Policing is widespread in queenless ants because workers are totipotent, so that additional potential conflicts occur in comparison to species where workers cannot mate, and these additional conflicts are frequently reduced by policing. Policing is more diverse than suggested by the examples known in other social insects. In almost all species of social Hymenoptera it can include preventing workers from reproducing by killing worker-laid eggs, but in queenless ants it can additionally include immobilisation or mutilation of workers attempting to reproduce by replacing the gamergate (i.e. mated worker with a queen-like role) or by becoming an extra gamergate. Policing by both workers and by the gamergate are important. Policing can be facultative. Depending on the age of the gamergate, workers can prevent her replacement by immobilising challenging workers or they can favour replacement by immobilising the gamergate. The initial definition of policing was inspired by species in which workers retain ovaries but cannot mate. We broaden the definition to include species, such as queenless ants, where females are totipotent, thereby including not only conflict over male production but also over gamergate replacement and gamergate number. Finally, we compare policing with punishment and dominance hierarchy. Policing is not always punishment and it does not necessarily entail dominance relationships.     

Integrated shoreline management and tourism development on the cross-border World Heritage Site: A case study from the Curonian spit (Lithuania/Russia)

The varied and very dynamic landscape with a high biological diversity is a distinctive feature of the Curonian spit at the regional scale. Throughout the 20th century the main morphodynamic trend in the littoral of the Curonian spit was shoreline grading on the lagoon side, whereas on the marine side the increasing erosion at the foot of the spit, and increasing accretion at the head of the spit prevailed. The results of a discriminant analysis (Wilkes’ λ = 0.001626 and F = 29.267 when p < 0.001) show that sites with prevailing erosion, accretion and sediment input from the drifting dunes form regular inter-related spatial structures in the littoral with distinctive resulting discontinuities of the sediment drift along the lagoon coast. Dune littoral cells are characterized by Aeolian sediment input and distribution ‘down-drift’, (usually northwards) from the source. The most likely changes in the current development trends of the lagoon shore zone of the Curonian spit are related to expected climate changes and further slowing down of the dune drift. The probability of storms and ice-drift events, and their impact on coasts is expected to increase as a result of climate change. The dune advance will gradually slow down, and with it, the sand input to the coastal zone will decline. In this paper, we define integrated shoreline management as a system of long-term shoreline management measures, which is based on a littoral cell approach and aimed at harmonizing human activity in the coastal zone with the natural development of the shoreline. We propose an integrated management program for the lagoon shoreline of the Curonian spit, which is site-specific for each littoral cell as a coastal management unit. Drifting dunes and seaside beaches are the natural amenities, which are best known and best appreciated on the Curonian spit by 49% of the respondents representing the total Lithuanian population. A responsible tourism development should be considered as the key means for proper appreciation of the drifting dunes and natural coasts by society, which means to acknowledge and cherish the aesthetic and conservation values of dune and coastal landscapes of the Curonian spit as a World Heritage Site. There are at least two pre-conditions for this: (1) to provide visitors with sufficient information about diverse values and functions of the Curonian dunes and coasts within a broader regional and global heritage conservation context; (2) to enable tourists to enjoy the most impressive dune and coastal landscapes at close range. In this paper we propose to encourage active dune tourism, to reintroduce grazing into the Curonian dune areas, to restore and to preserve the most impressive landscapes of the highest white drifting dunes by bringing the blown out sand from the leeward foot of the dunes back to the crest artificially.     

Cadmium and methylmercury bioaccumulation by nymphs of the burrowing mayflyHexagenia rigida from the water column and sediment

Based on a three compartment microcosm-water column, natural sediment,Hexagenia rigida nymphs-an experimental study was set up to compare cadmium (Cd) and methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation by a burrowing mayfly species, after exposure via the water column or the sediment as initial contamination sources. Results from a wide concentration range for each exposure condition revealed very marked differences between the two metals: MeHg was readily accumulated from the two contamination sources, leading to important metal concentrations in the nymphs after the 2 weeks’ exposure; Cd bioaccumulation, on the other hand, was negligible when the metal was added to the water compartment, even though significant transfers were observed from the sediment source. The average Cd concentrations in the nymphs were proportional to the sediment contamination levels. Turbidity measurements in the water column, reflecting the bioturbation activity of the nymphs, revealed that the effect of Cd was significant, but only when the metal was initially added to the sediment. The results are discussed according to the uptake routes and the structural and functional properties of the biological barriers involved (gills and gut).     

Integrating decay, storage, kinetic selection, and filamentous backbone factors in a bacterial competition model.

Filamentous bulking in activated sludge systems occurs when filamentous organisms outgrow floc-forming bacteria and interfere with sludge settling. The competition between filaments and floc formers has been described previously using the kinetic selection and filamentous backbone theories. We hypothesized that differences in decay rates and storage abilities also affect this competition. We tested this hypothesis by integrating these four factors into a substrate-utilization model to predict and explain coexistence in a completely mixed reactor. In addition, filamentous and nonfilamentous sludges were developed in laboratory-scale reactors and analyzed to determine decay rates. The modeling results showed coexistence of the two organism types, and sensitivity analysis showed that the kinetic parameters, storage rate constants, and backbone coefficient had the greatest effect on the simulation results. Monte Carlo simulation showed the effect of storage, and the ranges of dilution rates wherein one group outcompeted the other were delineated.