自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用

本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型，并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟，得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明，集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测，为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。     

物元分析法在大气环境质量评价中的应用

应用物元分析方法构建大气环境质量的综合评价模型，并将该方法用于唐山市大气环境质量评价中，获得了与实际情况基本符合的评价结果。     

静电基本参数的测试原理

静电测试是整个静电防护工程中不可或缺的组成部分,也是静电防护设计和管理的依据.本文主要介绍了静电基本参数中的静电电位、静电电容和静电电量的测试原理,并结合具体测试数据对测试的方法和仪器进行了分析.     

SIMULATING THE IMPACT OF DRAINAGE DESIGN IN A COLD CLIMATE WITH ADAPT1

ABSTRACT: Surface and subsurface drainage make crop production economically viable in much of southern Minnesota because drainage allows timely field operations and protects field crops from extended periods of flooded soil conditions. However, subsurface drainage has been shown to increase nitrate/nitrogen losses to receiving waters. When engaging in drainage activities, farmers are increasingly being asked to consider, apart from the economic profit, the environmental impact of drainage. The Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport model (ADAPT) was used in this study to evaluate the impact of subsurface drainage design on the soil water balance over a two‐year period during which observed drainage discharge data were available. Twelve modeling scenarios incorporated four drainage coefficients (DC), 0.64 cm/d, 0.95 cm/d, 1.27 cm/d, and 1.91 cm/d, and three drain depths, 0.84 m, 1.15 m, and 1.45 m. The baseline condition corresponded to the drainage system specifications at the field site: a drain depth and spacing of 1.45 m and 28 m, respectively (DC of 0.64 cm/d). The results of the two‐year simulation suggested that for a given drainage coefficient, soils with the shallower drains (but equal DC) generally have less subsurface drainage and can produce more runoff (but reduced total discharge) and evapotranspiration. The results also suggested that it may be possible to design for both water/nitrate/nitrogen reduction and crop water needs.     

White spruce response to co-composted hydrocarbon-contaminated drilling waste: effects of compost age and nitrogen fertilization

There are growing interests to use co-composted drilling wastes contaminated with hydrocarbons as growth media for planting in land reclamation. However, such use of the compost may have potential problems such as inherent toxicity of residual hydrocarbon and microbial N immobilization due to high compost C to N ratios. We investigated the growth, biomass production, N uptake, and foliar delta13C of white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) seedlings in a pot experiment using 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-yr-old composts (with different hydrocarbon concentrations and C to N ratios) and a local noncontaminated soil with (200 kg N ha(-1)) or without N fertilization. Growth and N content of seedlings (particularly N content in roots) were lower when grown in the compost media as compared with those grown in the soil. Within the compost treatments seedling growth was affected by compost age, but the magnitude of growth reduction was not linearly proportional to hydrocarbon concentrations. Plant N uptake increased with compost age, which corresponds with an increase in indigenous mineral N concentration. Effects of N fertilization on N uptake were curtailed by the presence of indigenous mineral N (e.g., in the 4-yr-old compost) and by fertilization-induced stimulation of microbial activities (e.g., in the 1-yr-old compost). The differences in foliar delta13C values between seedlings grown in compost and soil (P < 0.05) suggest that limitations on water uptake caused by the residual hydrocarbon might have been the predominant factor limiting seedling growth in the compost media. This study suggests that water stress caused by residual hydrocarbons may be a critical factor for the successful use of co-composted drilling wastes as a growth medium.     

Sustainable pattern analysis of a publicly owned Material Recovery Facility in a fast-growing urban setting under uncertainty

Sustainable development goals are achievable through the installation of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in certain solid waste management systems, especially those in rapidly expanding multi-district urban areas. MRFs are a cost-effective alternative when curbside recycling does not demonstrate long-term success. Previous capacity planning uses mixed integer programming optimization for the urban center of the city of San Antonio, Texas to establish that a publicly owned material recovery facility is preferable to a privatized facility. As a companion study, this analysis demonstrates that a MRF alleviates economic, political, and social pressures facing solid waste management under uncertainty. It explores the impact of uncertainty in decision alternatives in an urban environmental system. From this unique angle, waste generation, incidence of recyclables in the waste stream, routing distances, recycling participation, and other planning components are taken as intervals to expand upon previous deterministic integer-programming models. The information incorporated into the optimization objectives includes economic impacts for recycling income and cost components in waste management. The constraint set consists of mass balance, capacity limitation, recycling limitation, scale economy, conditionality, and relevant screening restrictions. Due to the fragmented data set, a grey integer programming modeling approach quantifies the consequences of inexact information as it propagates through the final solutions in the optimization process. The grey algorithm screens optimal shipping patterns and an ideal MRF location and capacity. Two case settings compare MRF selection policies where optimal solutions exemplify the value of grey programming in the context of integrated solid waste management.     

Reliability and validity of the Multidimensional Driving Style Inventory in Chinese drivers

Objective: The Multidimensional Driving Style Inventory (MDSI) has been widely used in assessing the associations between driving styles and traffic violations and accidents in different cultural contexts. Due to the lack of a valid instrument to assess driving style, studies concerning driving style and its influence factors are limited in China. Thus, this study aimed to adapt and validate a Chinese version of the MDSI.

Methods: Seven hundred and sixty drivers aged from 19 to 60 years old were asked to complete the MDSI and a personality scale (trait anger, sensation seeking, altruism, and normlessness). Exploratory factory analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were used to obtain the factorial structure of the MDSI. The external validity of the MDSI was then evaluated by examining the associations between driving styles and personality traits, demographic variables, and traffic violations and crashes.

Results: EFA revealed a 6-factor structure of the MDSI (i.e., risky, anxious, angry, distress reduction, careful, and dissociative driving styles). CFA confirmed that the model fit of the MDSI was acceptable. The MDSI factors were moderately or weakly correlated with trait anger, sensation seeking, altruism, and normlessness. Significant gender and age differences in driving styles were found. Moreover, drivers who had traffic violations or crashes in the past year scored higher on risky and angry driving styles and lower on careful driving style than those who had not have traffic violations or crashes.

Conclusions: The Chinese version of the MDSI proved to be a reliable, valid, and highly useful instrument. It could be used to assess Chinese drivers who are at risk due to their maladaptive driving styles.     

Tolerance values of benthic macroinvertebrates for stream biomonitoring: assessment of assumptions underlying scoring systems worldwide

Tolerance values (TVs) based on benthic macroinvertebrates are one of the most widely used tools for monitoring the biological impacts of water pollution, particularly in streams and rivers. We compiled TVs of benthic macroinvertebrates from 29 regions around the world to test 11 basic assumptions about pollution tolerance, that: (1) Arthropoda are < tolerant than non-Arthropoda; (2) Insecta < non-Insecta; (3) non-Oligochaeta < Oligochaeta; (4) other macroinvertebrates < Oligochaeta + Chironomidae; (5) other macroinvertebrate taxa < Isopoda + Gastropoda + Hirudinea; (6) Ephemeroptera + Plecoptera + Trichoptera (EPT) < Odonata + Coleoptera + Heteroptera (OCH); (7) EPT < non-EPT insects; (8) Diptera < Insecta; (9) Bivalvia < Gastropoda; (10) Baetidae < other Ephemeroptera; and (11) Hydropsychidae < other Trichoptera. We found that the first eight of these 11 assumptions were supported despite regional variability. In addition, we examined the effect of Best Professional Judgment (BPJ) and non-independence of TVs among countries by performing all analyses using subsets of the original dataset. These subsets included a group based on those systems using TVs that were derived from techniques other than BPJ, and groups based on methods used for TV assignment. The results obtained from these subsets and the entire dataset are similar. We also made seven a priori hypotheses about the regional similarity of TVs based on geography. Only one of these was supported. Development of TVs and the reporting of how they are assigned need to be more rigorous and be better described.     

Co-pyrolysis of swine manure with agricultural plastic waste: Laboratory-scale study

Manure-derived biochar is the solid product resulting from pyrolysis of animal manures. It has considerable potential both to improve soil quality with high levels of nutrients and to reduce contaminants in water and soil. However, the combustible gas produced from manure pyrolysis generally does not provide enough energy to sustain the pyrolysis process. Supplementing this process may be achieved with spent agricultural plastic films; these feedstocks have large amounts of available energy. Plastic films are often used in soil fumigation. They are usually disposed in landfills, which is wasteful, expensive, and environmentally unsustainable. The objective of this work was to investigate both the energetics of co-pyrolyzing swine solids with spent plastic mulch films (SPM) and the characteristics of its gas, liquid, and solid byproducts. The heating value of the product gas from co-pyrolysis was found to be much higher than that of natural gas; furthermore, the gas had no detectable toxic fumigants. Energetically, sustaining pyrolysis of the swine solids through the energy of the product gas could be achieved by co-pyrolyzing dewatered swine solids (25% m/m) with just 10% SPM. If more than 10% SPM is used, the co-pyrolysis would generate surplus energy which could be used for power generation. Biochars produced from co-pyrolyzing SPM and swine solid were similar to swine solid alone based on the surface area and the ¹H NMR spectra. The results of this study demonstrated the potential of using pyrolysis technology to manage two prominent agricultural waste streams (SPM and swine solids) while producing value-added biochar and a power source that could be used for local farm operations.