Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.     

Concentration of some heavy metals in organically grown primitive,old and modern wheat genotypes: Implications for human health

The concentration of six HMs (Cd, Cr, Co, Pb, Hg and Ni) was analysed in 321 organically grown winter and spring wheat genotypes from six genotype groups, i.e. selections, old landraces, primitive wheat, spelt, old cultivars and cultivars. Also the potential risk of individual toxic HM to human health was estimated by using the Hazard Quotient (HQ). Significantly the lowest grain concentration of Cd was found in primitive wheat as compared to all other investigated genotype groups. Intake of HM by consumption of whole wheat grain was not found to pose a health risk to human for any of the investigated genotype groups. The bio-concentration factor of Cd for the different genotype groups indicated a lower ability to accumulate Cd for primitive wheat as compared to other genotype groups. The primitive wheat was found the most promising and might be of interest in future wheat breeding programs to develop wheat genotypes with low HMs concentration in the grain.     

Is levoglucosan a suitable quantitative tracer for wood burning? Comparison with receptor modeling on trace elements in Lycksele, Sweden

Particle emissions from residential wood combustion in small communities in Northern Sweden can sometimes increase the ambient particle concentrations to levels comparable to densely trafficked streets in the center of large cities. The reason for this is the combination of increased need for domestic heating during periods of low temperatures, leading to higher emission rates, and stable meteorological conditions. In this work, the authors compare two different approaches to quantify the wood combustion contribution to fine particles in Northern Sweden: a multivariate source-receptor analysis on inorganic compounds followed by multiple linear regression (MLR) of fine particle concentrations and levoglucosan used as a tracer. From the receptor model, it can be seen that residential wood combustion corresponds with 70% of modeled particle mass. Smaller contributions are also seen from local nonexhaust traffic particles, road dust, and brake wear (each contributing 14%). Of the mass, 1.5% is explained by long-distance transported particles, and 2% derives from a regional source deriving from either oil combustion or smelter activities. In samples collected in ambient air, a significant linear correlation was found between wood burning particles and levoglucosan. The levoglucosan fraction in the ambient fine particulate matter attributed to wood burning according to the multivariate analysis ranged from < 2% to 50%. This is much higher than the fraction found in the emission from the boilers expected to be responsible for most emissions at this site (between 3% and 6%). A laboratory emission study of wood and pellet boilers gave 0.3% wt to 22% wt levoglucosan to particle mass, indicating that the levoglucosan fraction may be highly dependent on combustion conditions, making it uncertain to use it as a quantitative tracer under real-world burning conditions. Thus, quantitative estimates of wood burning contributions will be very uncertain using solely levoglucosan as a tracer.     

SIMAIR—Evaluation tool for meeting the EU directive on air pollution limits

Almost all Swedish cities need to determine air pollution levels—especially PM10—close to major streets. SIMAIR is an internet tool that can be used by all Swedish municipalities to assess PM10, NO₂, CO and benzene levels and how they compare to the EU directive. SIMAIR is delivered to the municipalities with all required input data pre-loaded and is meant to be used prior to decisions if and where, monitoring campaigns are required. The system includes a road and vehicle database with emission factors and a model to calculate non-tailpipe PM10 emissions. Regional and urban background contributions are pre-calculated and stored as hourly values on a 1×1 km² grid. The local contribution is calculated by the user, selecting either an open road or a street canyon environment.A comparison between measured and simulated concentrations in four street locations shows that SIMAIR is able to calculate statistics of yearly mean values, 90-percentile and 98-percentile daily mean values and the number of days exceeding the limit value that are well within ±50% that EU requires for model estimates of yearly mean values. In comparison, all values except one are within ±25% which is the quality objective for fixed measurements according to the EU directive.The SIMAIR model system is also able to separate the percentual contribution of the long-range transport from outside the city, the city contribution and the local contribution from the traffic of an individual street.     

Estimates of black carbon and size-resolved particle number emission factors from residential wood burning based on ambient monitoring and model simulations

In this paper we derive typical emission factors for coarse particulate matter (PM(10)), oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)), black carbon (BC), and number particle size distributions based on a combination of measurements and air quality dispersion modeling. The advantage of this approach is that the emission factors represent integrated emissions from several vehicle types and different types of wood stoves. Normally it is very difficult to estimate the total emissions in cities on the basis of laboratory measurements on single vehicles or stoves because of the large variability in conditions. The measurements were made in Temuco, Chile, between April 18 and June 15, 2005 at two sites. The first one was located in a residential area relatively far from major roads. The second site was located in a busy street in downtown Temuco where wood consumption is low. The measurements support the assumption that the monitoring sites represent the impact of different emission sources, namely traffic and residential wood combustion (RWC). Fitting model results to the available measurements, emission factors were obtained for PM(10) (RWC = 2160 +/- 100 mg/kg; traffic = 610 +/- 51 mg/veh-km), NO(x) (RWC = 800 +/- 100 mg/kg; traffic = 4400 +/- 100 mg/veh-km), BC (RWC = 74 +/- 6 mg/kg; traffic = 60 +/- 3 mg/veh-km) and particle number (N) with size distribution between 25 and 600 nm (N(25-600)) (RWC = 8.9 +/- 1 x 10(14) pt/kg; traffic = 6.7 +/- 0.5 x 10(14) pt/veh-km). The obtained emission factors are comparable to results reported in the literature. The size distribution of the N emission factors for traffic was shown to be different than for RWC. The main difference is that although traffic emissions show a bimodal size distribution with a main mode below 30 nm and a secondary one around 100 nm, RWC emissions show the main mode slightly below 100 nm and a smaller nucleation mode below 50 nm.     

Managing safety in hydropower projects in emerging markets – Experiences in developing from a reactive to a proactive approach

International companies investing in emerging markets need to address the management of safety under varying conditions. The paper presents an evaluation of the approaches taken by an international hydropower company in two different construction projects, one in India and one in the Philippines. In the first project, the company had to intervene as a reaction to poor safety and overall performance. Based on previous experiences, the company selected a proactive approach in the second project, involving use of the contracting process to ensure adequate conditions from the start of construction and onwards. The paper accounts for the safety performance results in the two projects and interprets them in relationship to external and internal influencing factors in the respective project. It is concluded that a proactive approach has the potential of delivering satisfactory safety results at moderate costs for follow-up. A reactive approach risks exposing the company to ethical and reputation risks due to a poor safety performance before the corrective actions have taken full effect. It is also resource demanding. Results demonstrate the feasibility of turning around a project’s safety performance also when preconditions are challenging.     

Synchronous variation in water chemistry for 80 lakes in Southern Sweden

Variation in water chemistry was studied in 80 lakes in southern Sweden. The lakes had forest dominated catchments. The length of the time series was 14 years. Synchrony was calculated as Pearsons product moment correlation coefficients for all combinations of lakes, i.e. 3160 lake-pairs. The chemical variables studied were non-marine sulphate (SO₄ ^*), non-marine calcium (Ca^*), absorbance and acid neutralising capacity (ANC). Statistically significant synchrony occurred in 93% of all lake-pairs for SO₄ ^*, and between 58 and 67% for absorbance, Ca^* and ANC. In 70% of all lake-pairs, the synchrony was \s>0.71 for SO₄ ^*, which means that more than half of the variation in one lake could be explained by the variation in the other lake. For absorbance, Ca^* and ANC, about 25% of the lake-pairs had a synchrony \s>0.71. The relatively high synchrony for SO₄ ^* occurred during an overall downward trend in SO₄ ^* concentration.The degree of synchrony in our study was at a level comparable to other studies in northern America and England. However, our study included lakes in a much larger area, with distances of up to 500 km between the lakes, while earlier studies were made on small lake districts with lakes located within approximately 50 km. In contrast to these earlier studies, there was no correlation between synchrony and distance, lake characteristics or catchment characteristics. However, when a small subset of 15 lakes in the southeast of Sweden was selected, such relations were found.     

Incubation start and egg size in relation to body reserves in the common eider

Avian incubation is often initiated before all eggs are laid. In altricial birds this has been proposed to facilitate brood reduction through asynchronous hatching. However, in precocial birds eggs normally hatch synchronously even if incubation has started before all eggs are laid. Patterns of incubation start may be the adaptive trait selected for both in altricial and precocial species. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the timing of incubation start in birds. Decreasing egg-size after incubation start may be adaptively related to an early incubation start, either to ensure synchronous hatching or to decrease fitness cost of late hatched eggs. We have measured individual body condition, egg size and start of incubation in common eider Somateria mollissima, a precocial sea-duck which does not feed during the incubation period. Females in poor body condition start to incubate earlier in the laying sequence than those in good body condition. Furthermore females in poor body condition lay smaller final eggs than females in good body condition. The laying of smaller eggs late in the sequence is therefore probably related to energetic or nutritional state. We propose that females in poor body condition start to incubate early to shorten the nest period in order to reduce their mass loss, but at the cost of reduced size and growth of the ducklings from the eggs laid after incubation start. Females in good body condition on the other hand postpone incubation start at the cost of a longer incubation period and a higher mass loss to the benefit of synchronized hatching and a higher survival of ducklings.     

Incentives and outcomes: Evaluation of a Swedish environmental subsidy programme

This paper empirically evaluates a Swedish government subsidy to environmental sustainability, the Local Investment Programme (LIP). During the programme period, 1998 – 2002, more than 670 million was granted to 1814 different municipal projects, making it the largest Swedish subsidization to ecological sustainability to date. For the 682 projects evaluated here, it was found that the projects were rewarded smaller subsidies than granted. To explain the gap between granted and rewarded subsidies, the gap was decomposed into a quantity effect, depending on the quantified environmental and employment outcomes of the projects, and a price effect, depending on the government's valuation of these outcomes. Whereas no statistically significant quantity effect was found, there was a large statistically significant price effect, indicating that the government paid the municipalities less than promised in the granting decision.     

Geographic variations in anthropogenic drivers that influence the vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems

Across the circumpolar North large disparities in the distribution of renewable and nonrenewable resources, human population density, capital investments, and basic residential and transportation infrastructure combine to create recognizable hotspots of recent and foreseeable change. Northern Fennoscandia exemplifies a relatively benign situation due to its current economic and political stability. Northern Russia is experiencing rapid, mostly negative changes reflecting the general state of crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union. North America enjoys a relatively stable regulatory structure to mitigate environmental degradation associated with industry, but is on the verge of approving massive new development schemes that would significantly expand the spatial extent of potentially affected social-ecological systems. Institutional or regulatory context influences the extent to which ecosystem services are buffered against environmental change. With or without a warming climate, certain geographic areas appear especially vulnerable to damages that may threaten their ability to supply goods and services in the near future. Climate change may exacerbate this situation in some places but may offer opportunities to enhance resilience in the long term.