Environmental policy indicators: A systems model

This article describes and tests a systems theory-based policy indicators model. The framework is used to examine propositions about linkages between states' ecological-spatial characteristics and subsequent selected solid waste management (SWM) -related environmental policies. It was hypothesized that state characteristics of: (1) population density (used as a garbage-per-land area index), (2) population convergence within urban areas, and (3) percent population change in the interval 1980–1985, could jointly explain state variation in both the number and the vigor of SWM policy outputs. Greater levels of spatial pressure were proposed to be related directly to more numerous, more convincing policies. Proposals are grounded in the literature of organizational search theory, crisis stimulation, and technological pressure. Results revealed that the sociospatial model in fact could explain a reasonable proportion of policy variation across states. However, not all hypotheses are supported. Population change shows an indirect, rather than the anticipated direct, relationship with policy output levels. In addition, when used in the model as a pollution intensity index, population density failed to contribute significantly to an explanation of differences in state SWM policy levels. The analysis raises questions about changes occurring over time in the nature and direction of linkages between sociospatial measures and policy responses. This study suggests that strengthening policy indicator models may require questioning key assumptions and theoretical bases, conducting longitudinal studies, and factoring in political, economic, and other policy environment forces.     

The effective source area of 90Sr for a stream near Chernobyl, Ukraine

Remediation of streams impacted by non-point source contaminants requires an understanding of both the areas within a watershed that are contributing contamination to streams and the pathways of contaminant migration to streams. From 1998 to 2002, we studied the migration of 90Sr in the Borschi watershed, a small (8.5 km2) catchment three km south of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine. Fuel particles, distributed in a heterogeneous pattern across the watershed, are weathering and releasing 90Sr from the fuel matrix. Depletion of (90)Sr, evaluated in comparison to the immobile fission product europium-154, is occurring in the channel and wetland sediment. Channel sediments are uniformly depleted in 90Sr with depth. In wetland sediments, there is a zone of depletion in the top 10 cm and a zone of accumulation at depths from 10 to 25 cm. Estimates of 90Sr depletion are used to map the effective source area that has contributed (90)Sr loading to the main channel. The effective source area includes channel bottom sediments, a wetland in the central region of the watershed, and periodically flooded soils surrounding the wetland. The total depletion from the effective source area is estimated to be 36 +/- 7 x 10(10) Bq. Based on observations of stream flow rate and water quality in 1999-2001, the annual 90Sr removal rate from the watershed is estimated to be 1.4 +/-0.2 x 10(10) or 1.5% of the inventory per year. When extrapolated over a 15-year period following the Chernobyl accident, the last value is in reasonable agreement with the estimated depletion of the source area based on 90Sr/154Eu ratios. The 90Sr yearly leaching rate considering the whole watershed is 0.2% while the 90Sr leaching rate considering the effective source area is an order of magnitude higher. Most of the 90Sr release in the watershed has originated from an effective source area of 0.62 km2, or 7% of the watershed area.     

GENERALIZED WATERSHED LOADING FUNCTIONS FOR STREAM FLOW NUTRIENTS1

ABSTRACT: Loading functions are proposed as a general model for estimating monthly nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes in stream flow. The functions have a simple mathematical structure, describe a wide range of rural and urban nonpoint sources, and couple surface runoff and ground water discharge. Rural runoff loads are computed from daily runoff and erosion and monthly sediment yield calculations. Urban runoff loads are based on daily nutrient accumulation rates and exponential wash off functions. Ground water discharge is determined by lumped parameter unsaturated and saturated zone soil moisture balances. Default values for model chemical parameters were estimated from literature values. Validation studies over a three-year period for an 850 km² watershed showed that the loading functions explained at least 90 percent of the observed monthly variation in dissolved and total nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes in stream flow. Errors in model predictions of mean monthly fluxes were: dissolved phosphorus - 4 percent; total phosphorus - 2 percent; dissolved nitrogen - 18 percent; and total nitrogen - 28 percent. These results were obtained without model calibration.     

Regional planning acceptance by residents of Northern New York,USA

This study compares the effectiveness of two regional planning agencies in terms of public support for various planning activities. The Adirondack Park Agency and the Temporary State Commission on Tug Hill have fundamentally different approaches to planning. The Adirondack Park Agency has implemented a restrictive regulatory program with little citizen participation by Adirondack residents. The Tug Hill Commission has implemented an advisory and coordinating program with an emphasis on public input. Residents of two towns in each region were surveyed to determine environmental concern and support for regional planning activities. Respondents from both regions favored a planning agency that incorporates citizen input; controls air, water, and toxic waste pollution; and develops recreation areas. They strongly opposed an agency that regulates private land-use. Basic demographic characteristics and levels of environmental concern were similar in all four towns, but receptivity to various planning activities was consistently greater among residents of the Tug Hill Region. Paired comparisons of the four towns demonstrated no differences between towns of the same region and significant differences between towns of different regions. Public support for regional planning is greater in the Tug Hill Region than in the Adirondack Park.     

Assessing cancer incidence in a small community

Many small communities are concerned about health effects from environmental pollutants. One such community, Orwell, in Oswego County, New York, was investigated to determine if the level of cancer was significantly high in comparison to the county and the state. A pilot health study was administered among residents living in a defined area. Results of the survey demonstrated that cancer incidence was higher than both Oswego County and New York State, while cancer mortality was higher for men and lower for woman. A closer examination of the data showed that the way in which health surveys are usually analyzed may not be appropriate for small communities. In particular, some parametric statistics, such as chi-square analysis, might show significant differences between populations when standardized incidence and mortality rates are derived from small samples, yet standard deviations calculated from these data are so large as to cast doubt on the analysis. Researchers have discussed this problem theoretically, but empirical studies illustrating the difficulties have not heretofore appeared in the published literature. For health studies in small communities, greater consideration should be given to risk ratios and the implications of standard deviations.     

Dose equivalent commitments from fallout radionuclides in the open waters of the Great Lakes. 1973–1981

The levels of ¹⁴⁴Ce, ¹³⁷Cs, ¹²⁵Sb, and ⁹⁰Sr in the open waters of the Great Lakes were measured over the period 1973–81. The levels were found to be very low. ¹⁴⁴Ce was detected only up to 1975 after which it dropped below the detection limit. The data indicate that the concentrations of the remaining three radionuclides have decreased with time. ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs provide essentially all of the radiological dose from drinking Great Lakes water. The dose equivalant commitments have been calculated from these measurements and found to be well within the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement's water quality objective for radioactivity.