Sensitivity of amounts and distribution of tropical forest carbon credits depending on baseline rules

One of the largest sources of global greenhouse gas emissions can be addressed through conservation of tropical forests by channeling funds to developing countries at a cost-savings for developed countries. However, questions remain to be resolved in negotiating a system for including reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in a post-Kyoto climate treaty. The approach to determine national baselines, or reference levels, for quantifying REDD has emerged as central to negotiations over a REDD mechanism in a post-Kyoto policy framework. The baseline approach is critical to the success of a REDD mechanism because it affects the quantity, credibility, and equity of credits generated from efforts to reduce forest carbon emissions. We compared outcomes of seven proposed baseline approaches as a function of country circumstances, using a retrospective analysis of FAO-FRA data on forest carbon emissions from deforestation. Depending upon the baseline approach used, the total credited emissions avoided ranged over two orders of magnitude for the same quantity of actual emissions reductions. There was also a wide range in the relative distribution of credits generated among the five country types we identified. Outcomes were especially variable for countries with high remaining forest and low rates of deforestation (HFLD). We suggest that the most credible approaches measure emissions avoided with respect to a business-as-usual baseline scenario linked to historic emissions data, and allow limited adjustments based on forest carbon stocks.     

MODIFICATION OF NEILL'S EQUATION FOR STORM‐TIDE DESIGN FLOW ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Design of bridges spanning tidal estuaries or bays requires an estimate of peak tidal flow. One common approach to estimating these flows (Neill's method) uses a first‐order approximation of uniform water surface rise in the water body. For larger water bodies, the assumptions of this method are decreasingly valid. This study develops a simple modification that accounts for the spatial variability in the response of tidal waterways to storm surge flows. The peak tidal flow predicted by Neill's equation is compared to the peak flow determined by numerical simulation of estuaries with simple geometries, ranging from 1 to 25 km in length, using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one‐dimensional unsteady flow model, UNET. Results indicate that, under certain conditions, it may be appropriate to apply a correction factor to the peak discharge and peak velocity predicted by Neill's method. An algorithm, developed by nonlinear regression, is presented for computing correction factors based on estuary length, shape, mean depth, and storm‐tide characteristics. The results should permit the design of more reliable, cost‐effective structures by providing more realistic estimates of the potential for bridge scour in tidal waterways, especially when a full solution of the unsteady flow equations is impractical.     

FORMAL EDUCATION IN WILDLAND HYDROLOGY AND WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN NORTH AMERICA1

ABSTRACT: A survey was made to determine the status of formal education in wildland hydrology by colleges and universities in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. As of December 1977 nine institutions offered the B.S. degree, 18 the M.S. degree, and 17 the degree of Ph.D. with a major or minor in watershed management, forest hydrology, or range hydrology. In addition, 8 other schools offer a minor in watershed management. The survey indicated 44 schools in the United States offer a total of 157 courses, five schools in Canada offer 24 courses, and 1 in Mexico offers one course in the related areas. The survey illustrated rapid growth in education programs and it is anticipated that growth will continue.     

A common universe—questionable responses to tropical rainfall and aridity in Africa and Asia

Much of the world lacks sufficient rainfall to regularly replenish aquifers and surface storage or receives excessive rainfall resulting in serious erosion and health issues by way of water-borne diseases. Residents adjust to these climatic realities in different ways. Desert peoples have learned to conserve water in order to sustain the minimal potable water requirements and agricultural-animal husbandry development necessary for life. In one country, this finely tuned balance between supply and demand has been negatively impacted by political and economic decisions to encourage agricultural exports by mining subsurface fossil aquifers. Governments in tropical regions have been guilty of neglect or worse by failing to provide their peoples with the tools necessary for obtaining safe drinking water. In the former case, mining of subsurface water threatens the very future existence of society. In at least one tropical country, over dependence upon outside agencies to provide what government might best prioritize for its own funding has caused a disconnect between donor expectations and local realities thus delaying eradication of easily preventable diseases.     

Foraging guilds of North American birds

We propose a foraging guild classification for North American inland, coastal, and pelagic birds. This classification uses a three-part identification for each guild—major food, feeding substrate, and foraging technique—to classify 672 species of birds in both the breeding and nonbreeding seasons. We have attempted to group species that use similar resources in similar ways. Researchers have identified foraging guilds generally by examining species distributions along one or more defined environmental axes. Such studies frequently result in species with several guild designations. While the continuance of these studies is important, to accurately describe species' functional roles, managers need methods to consider many species simultaneously when trying to determine the impacts of habitat alteration. Thus, we present an avian foraging classification as a starting point for further discussion to aid those faced with the task of describing community effects of habitat change.     

DETERMINING RAINS OF HYDROLOGIC CONSEQUENCE IN CHICAGO FOR FORECASTING APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Accurate forecasting of heavy rainstorms that affect the Chicago Metropolitan area and lead to the undesirable release of storm runoff into Lake Michigan is a major objective. These releases (overflows) were found to be produced by storm events yielding 2 inches or more in a few hours, although only 24 percent of such ≥ 2-inch storms in the area during 1948-1981 produced overflows. Failure to forecast properly or to be able to react to these 2-inch overflow producing events has occurred most often in the spring and fall, although relatively often in June and July in recent years. These overflows have exhibited an inexplicable trebling during 1972-1981 without an increase in ≥ 2-inch storm events. This type of troublesome storm can be reliably predicted, using a recently developed radar man forecast system for the Chicago area.     

An immunological axis of biocontrol: infections in field-trapped insects

Insect immunology is an active research arena, however, the vast majority of research in the area is conducted on model species taken from laboratory cultures. We tested the hypothesis that insects are regularly exposed to infections or invasions in nature and here report results of a field study designed to assess the extent of natural infections in insects collected from agrarian fields surrounding Kahramanmaraş, Turkey. Specimens were dissected to assess numbers of nodules. Formation of darkened, melanotic nodules is the predominant cellular immune reaction to microbial and parasitic infection, and once formed, the nodules are permanently attached to internal surfaces. The collected insects were healthy. Of the >400 examined specimens, at least some nodules were found in 98%. Numbers of nodules ranged from ∼2/individual to >100 nodules/individual. We conclude that insects are regularly challenged by microbial and parasitic infections from which they recover. The novel implication of our data is that insect immune systems may limit the host range and effectiveness of agents deployed in biological control programs. Knowledge of insect immune systems may contribute to increased use of biopesticides globally.     

Foundations of indigenous knowledge on disasters due to natural hazards: lessons from the outlook on floods among the Bayira of the Rwenzori region

The role of indigenous knowledge in increasing context specificity and exposing blind spots in scientific understanding is widely evidenced in disaster studies. This paper aims to structure the processes that shape indigenous knowledge production and its optimisation using the case of floods. An inductive analytical approach is applied among riparian indigenous communities (focus on the Bayira) of the Rwenzori region of Uganda where plenty of indigenous flood practices have been recorded. Indigenous knowledge of floods is found to be based on intimate comprehension of local hydrometeorological regularities. Insofar as these regularities follow natural dynamics, indigenous socio-epistemic processes are noted to be consistent with the laws of nature. Coupled with regular open sociocultural deliberations, the conceptualisation of hydrometeorological regularities induces an indigenous ontology and empiricist epistemology. This, together with the techniques used, is the driver of crucial epistemic virtues which enable indigenous knowledge to provide disaster solutions that are adapted, pragmatic, and holistic.