Fooled by local robustness: an applied ecology perspective

In this short discussion, we point out that it is apparently as easy to be fooled by robustness as it is to be fooled by randomness. Our objective is to bring to the attention of applied ecologists that radius-of-stability robustness models are models of local robustness. As such, these models are utterly unsuitable for the treatment/management of a severe uncertainty characterized by a vast uncertainty space and a likelihood-free quantification of the uncertainty. This observation is particularly pertinent to applications of info-gap decision theory in ecology, conservation biology, and environmental management, where the objective is to identify decisions that are robust against a severe uncertainty of this type.     

Prenatal diagnosis of extrahepatic biliary duct atresia

A rare case of extrahepatic biliary atresia was diagnosed by a combination of prenatal ultrasound and measurements of fetal digestive enzymes in amniotic fluid. Ultrasound at 15 and 18 weeks' gestation failed to detect the gall bladder, and amniotic fluid digestive enzyme values were below the fifth percentile. The patient decided to terminate the pregnancy. Post-abortal pathological examination confirmed the diagnosis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of infrastructure characteristics on road crashes on two-lane highways

OBJECTIVE: The main purpose of this study is to estimate and quantify the contribution of the infrastructure to highway crashes and to develop an infrastructure coefficient, that represents the overall characteristics of the highway and could be used as an independent variable in a crash-prediction model. METHODS: The infrastructure is defined in this study as the highway and its geometric features, including alignment, road-side elements, sight-distances, presence of guardrails, access-points, roadway consistency, and additional variables that measure the overall quality of the highway alignment and elements. The analysis and developments are conducted for two-lane rural highways. The approach taken is to identify the high crash-rate roads, those with crash rates above 0.25 crashes per million vehicle-km, by Smallest Space Analysis. This type of analysis allows the aggregation of higher crash-rate roads versus lower-crash-rate roads only by their infrastructure coefficients, without consideration of their crash records. RESULTS: Crash rates that are attached by Smallest Space Analysis to the group of roads that had less desirable infrastructure features show a high correlation between the same roads and high crash rates vs. identified better infrastructures and low crash rates. Further analysis shows that low crash-rate infrastructure, as defined in this study for two-lane rural highways, can reduce the crash rate by 44% versus high crash-rate infrastructure, at the 99% confidence level, which is almost a certainty. A model for the prediction of crash rates based on a proposed infrastructure coefficient is calibrated and presented. CONCLUSIONS: It is suggested that this model be used in evaluating alternatives for new highways or in improving the alignment and road features of existing highways.     

Avoiding incidental predation by mammalian herbivores: accurate detection and efficient response in aphids

Mammalian herbivores eat plants that may also provide food and shelter for insects. The direct trophic effect of the browsing and grazing of mammalian herbivory on insects, which is probably prevalent in terrestrial ecosystems, has been mostly neglected by ecologists. We examined how the aphid Uroleucon sonchi L. deals with the danger of incidental predation by mammalian herbivores. We found that most (76%) of the aphids in a colony survive the ingestion of the plant by a feeding herbivore. They do so by sensing the combination of heat and humidity in the herbivore’s breath and immediately dropping off the plant in large numbers. Their ability to sense the herbivore’s breath or their tendency to drop off the plant weakens as ambient temperature rises. This could indicate a limitation of the aphids’ sensory system or an adaptation that enables them to avoid the hostile conditions on a hot ground. Once on the ground, U. sonchi is highly mobile and capable of locating a new host plant by advancing in a pattern that differs significantly from random movement. The accurate and efficient defense mechanism of U. sonchi emphasizes the significance of incidental predation as a danger to plant-dwelling invertebrates.     

The significance of a small, level-3 'semi evacuation' hospital in a terrorist attack in a nearby town

Terrorist attacks can occur in remote areas causing mass-casualty incidents MCIs far away from level-1 trauma centres. This study draws lessons from an MCI pertaining to the management of primary and secondary evacuation and the operational mode practiced. Data was collected from formal debriefings during and after the event, and the medical response, interactions and main outcomes analysed using Disastrous Incidents Systematic Analysis through Components, Interactions and Results (DISAST-CIR) methodology. A total of 112 people were evacuated from the scene-66 to the nearby level 3 Laniado hospital, including the eight critically and severely injured patients. Laniado hospital was instructed to act as an evacuation hospital but the flow of patients ended rapidly and it was decided to admit moderately injured victims. We introduce a novel concept of a 'semi-evacuation hospital'. This mode of operation should be selected for small-scale events in which the evacuation hospital has hospitalization capacity and is not geographically isolated. We suggest that level-3 hospitals in remote areas should be prepared and drilled to work in semi-evacuation mode during MCIs.