Developing shared qualitative models for complex systems

Understanding complex systems is essential to ensure their conservation and effective management. Models commonly support understanding of complex ecological systems and, by extension, their conservation. Modeling, however, is largely a social process constrained by individuals’ mental models (i.e., a small-scale internal model of how a part of the world works based on knowledge, experience, values, beliefs, and assumptions) and system complexity. To account for both system complexity and the diversity of knowledge of complex systems, we devised a novel way to develop a shared qualitative complex system model. We disaggregated a system (carbonate coral reefs) into smaller subsystem modules that each represented a functioning unit, about which an individual is likely to have more comprehensive knowledge. This modular approach allowed us to elicit an individual mental model of a defined subsystem for which the individuals had a higher level of confidence in their knowledge of the relationships between variables. The challenge then was to bring these subsystem models together to form a complete, shared model of the entire system, which we attempted through 4 phases: develop the system framework and subsystem modules; develop the individual mental model elicitation methods; elicit the mental models; and identify and isolate differences for exploration and identify similarities to cocreate a shared qualitative model. The shared qualitative model provides opportunities to develop a quantitative model to understand and predict complex system change.     

Promoting ecological sustainable planning for natural stone quarrying. The case of the Orosei Marble Producing Area in Eastern Sardinia

This paper presents an analysis of the main environmental impact factors (noise, vibration, fumes, dust, vehicle traffic) associated with marble quarrying and processing in the Orosei industrial area and their effects. Solutions are also proposed to prevent, mitigate and, where possible, eliminate the impact on the environment. Using three-dimensional topographic models, the authors simulated quarry and industrial processing development, with projections over the next 10, 30 and 50 years. The aim of these simulations was to establish land management planning guidelines for the optimal and environmentally sustainable development of the Orosei Marble industrial area. Lastly, careful quarry development planning is important both for enhancing LCA and for improving production processes through sustainable technologies that yield green label products meeting environmental performance standards.     

Using ecosystem-services assessments to determine trade-offs in ecosystem-based management of marine mammals

The goal of ecosystem-based management (EBM) is to support a sustainable and holistic multisectored management approach, and is recognized in a number of international policy frameworks. However, it remains unknown how these goals should be linked to assessments and management plans for marine fauna, such as mammals and fish stocks. It appears particularly challenging to carry out trade-off analyses of various ocean uses without a framework that integrates knowledge of environmental, social, and economic benefits derived from nonstationary marine fauna. We argue this gap can be filled by applying a version of the ecosystem-service approach at the population level of marine fauna. To advance this idea, we used marine mammals as a case study to demonstrate what indicators could operationalize relevant assessments and deliver an evidence base for the presence of ecosystem services and disservices derived from marine mammals. We found indicators covering common ecosystem service categories feasible to apply; examples of indicator data are already available in the literature for several populations. We encourage further exploration of this approach for application to marina fauna and biodiversity management, with the caveat that conceptual tensions related to the use of the ecosystem service concept itself needs to be addressed to ensure acceptance by relevant stakeholders.     

Industrial sources influence air concentrations of hydrogen sulfide and sulfur dioxide in rural areas of western Canada

A survey of monthly average concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) at rural locations in western Canada (provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan) was conducted in 2001-2002, as part of an epidemiological study of the effects of oil and gas industry emissions on the health of cattle. Repeated measurements were obtained at some months and locations. We aimed to develop statistical models of the effect of oil and gas infrastructure on air concentrations. The regulatory authorities supplied the information on location of the different oil and gas facilities during the study period and, for Alberta, provided data on H2S content of wells and flaring volumes. Linear mixed effects models were used to relate observed concentrations to proximity and type of oil and gas infrastructure. Low concentrations were recorded; the monthly geometric mean was 0.1-0.2 ppb for H2S, and 0.3-1.3 ppb for SO2. Substantial variability between repeated measurements was observed. The precision of the measurement method was 0.005 ppb for both contaminants. There were seasonal trends in the concentrations, but the spatial variability was greater. This was explained, in part, by proximity to oil/gas/bitumen wells and (for SO2) gas plants. Wells within 2 km of monitoring stations had the greatest impact on measured concentrations. For H2S, 8% of between-location variability was explained by proximity to industrial sources of emissions; for SO2 this proportion was 18%. In Alberta, proximity to sour gas wells and flares was associated with elevated H2S concentrations; however, the estimate of the effect of sour gas wells in the immediate vicinity of monitoring stations was unstable. Our study was unable to control for all possible sources of the contaminants. However, the results suggest that oil and gas extraction activities contribute to air pollution in rural areas of western Canada.     

Analysis of prospective epidemiologic studies on the neurobehavioural effects of lead

High-level lead exposure can have serious effects on the intellectual and behavioural development of young children. There has been much controversy in the last decade concerning the possible impact of low-level lead exposure upon the neurobehavioural and psychomotor development of children. Five longitudinal studies (Boston, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Port Pirie and Sydney) examining lead effects on child development were initiated in the early 1980s. These studies share multiple design features and include data on blood lead and neurobehavioural measurements from birth, six months, or annual intervals to seven years. All the studies use multivariate analysis to take into account possible confounding covariates with outcome measures.The studies tend to have varying results based on the covariates used and type of subject population. An analysis of the results of the five studies with regard to effects associated with prenatal and postnatal lead exposure and pregnancy outcome has been carried out and reveals inconsistencies in the onset, stability, and nature of neurobehavioural effects correlated with different indices of lead exposure. it is possible that the variation in reported results may be due to the use of different covariates and analyses among studies. A common analysis should be carried out among ail studies to further determine consistency of results. Although individual studies may show some effects, taken as a whole, the current published data from the five studies in this review are inconsistent and do not lend support to the concept that low level lead exposure resulting in blood lead levels below 25 g dL^–1 is associated with neurobehavioural deficits in children.     

A review on usnic acid,an interesting natural compound

Lichens are a world-widespread consortium of fungal and photosynthetic partners. Usnic acid is one of the most common and abundant lichen metabolites, well known as an antibiotic, but also endowed with several other interesting properties. This review summarises the most relevant studies on usnic acid, focusing on a number of biological activities in different fields. On the basis of the existing literature, usnic acid seems to be an exclusive lichen product. No synthetic derivatives more effective than the natural form are known. Both the (+) and (-) enantiomers of usnic acid are effective against a large variety of Gram-positive (G+) bacterial strains, including strains from clinical isolates, irrespective of their resistant phenotype. Of particular relevance is the inhibition of growth of multi-resistant strains of Streptococcus aureus, enterococci and mycobacteria. The (+)-usnic acid enantiomer appears to be selective against Streptococcus mutans without inducing perturbing side effects on the oral saprophyte flora. On the other hand, the (-)-usnic acid enantiomer is a selective natural herbicide because of its blocking action against a specific key plant enzyme. Other recognised characteristics of usnic acid are ultraviolet absorption and preserving properties. The toxicology, the in vitro anti-inflammatory effects and the mechanism of action of usnic acid need to be investigated in greater detail in order to reach clinical trials and to allow further applications. Furthermore, more research is needed to make possible intensive lichen culture, in order to produce large quantities of lichen substances for pharmaceutical, cosmetic and agricultural purposes. Some biological aspects, i.e. the possible biological roles of usnic acid, are discussed.     

Food offering in jackdaws (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Corvus monedula</Emphasis>)

Food sharing among unrelated same-sex individuals has received considerable interest from primatologists and evolutionary biologists because of its apparent altruistic nature and implications for the evolution of complex social cognition. In contrast to primates, food sharing in birds has received relatively little attention. Here we describe three types of food sharing in jackdaws, with the initiative for the transfer either with the receiver or the giver. The latter situation is of particular interest because the food transfer takes place through active giving. Compared to primates, jackdaws show high rates of food sharing. Finally we discuss the implications of food sharing in jackdaws, and in birds in general.     

The selenium content of Welsh soils with special reference to bedrock and contamination from sulphide ores

This paper describes a survey of total selenium contents of surface soil samples in Wales. Samples were collected from three areas: over Silurian shales where deficiences in sheep have been reported, in an area severely affected by pollution from lead mining and in an area where black, marine shales outcrop. Selenium levels were low over the Silurian shales but high in the other two areas. Statistical analysis of the data permitted the separating out of a basal range of selenium values low enough to account for the reports of deficiences in sheep. Some selenium values were high enough to suggest the possibility of selenosis in sheep.     

Stochastic analysis to assess the spatial distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations in the Po catchment (Italy)

A large database including temporal trends of physical, ecological and socio-economic data was developed within the EUROCAT project. The aim was to estimate the nutrient fluxes for different socio-economic scenarios at catchment and coastal zone level of the Po catchment (Northern Italy) with reference to the Water Quality Objectives reported in the Water Framework Directive (WFD 2000/60/CE) and also in Italian legislation. Emission data derived from different sources at national, regional and local levels are referred to point and non-point sources. While non-point (diffuse) sources are simply integrated into the nutrient flux model, point sources are irregularly distributed. Intensive farming activity in the Po valley is one of the main Pressure factors Driving groundwater pollution in the catchment, therefore understanding the spatial variability of groundwater nitrate concentrations is a critical issue to be considered in developing a Water Quality Management Plan. In order to use the scattered point source data as input in our biogeochemical and transport models, it was necessary to predict their values and associated uncertainty at unsampled locations. This study reports the spatial distribution and uncertainty of groundwater nitrate concentration at a test site of the Po watershed using a probabilistic approach. Our approach was based on geostatistical sequential Gaussian simulation used to yield a series of stochastic images characterized by equally probable spatial distributions of the nitrate concentration across the area. Post-processing of many simulations allowed the mapping of contaminated and uncontaminated areas and provided a model for the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of nitrate concentrations.