Die magnetischen Eigenschaften der Uranoxyde

The Science of Nature -     

Sources of bias in ecological studiesof non-rare events

Ecological studies investigate relationships at the level of the group, rather than at the level of the individual. Although such studies are a common design in epidemiology, it is well-known that estimates may be subject to ecological bias. Most discussion of ecological bias has focused on rare disease events, where the tractability of the loglinear model allows some characterization of the nature of different biases. This paper concentrates on non-rare events, where the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution is not appropriate. We limit the discussion to bias that arises from within-area variability in exposures and confounders. Our aims are to investigate the likely sizes and directions of bias and, where possible, to suggest methods for controlling the bias or for addressing the sensitivity of inference to assumptions on the nature of the bias. We illustrate that for non-rare events it is much more difficult to characterize the direction of bias than in the rare case. A series of simple numerical examples based on a chronic study of respiratory health illustrate the ideas of the paper.     

Environmental reporting requirements under the EU: eco-management and audit scheme (EMAS)

The fifth Action Programme on the Environment: Towards Sustainability, defines European Union (EU) environmental policy until the year 2000 and emphasises the need for greater disclosure of environmental information. This paper discusses the Eco-management and audit scheme (EMAS), and EU market based instrument designed to bring more industrial environmental performance data into the public domain. The paper discusses the purpose of the Regulation's environmental statement identifying the potential audiences and their requirements. Using six corporate environmental reports, the paper analyzes how these meet the Regulation's reporting requirements and what modifications would be needed in current reporting trends. The paper concludes that existing reporting requirements will need to change to satisfy EMAS requirements and the increasing public demands for industrial environmental performance information.Ruth Hillary successfully completed a MSc in Environmental Technology at Imperial College, University of London, and is currently undertaking a doctorate to continue her research into the fields of environmental auditing and environmental management. She was placed at the European Commission's Industry and Environment Division of DG XI where she worked on the draft Eco-management and audit Regulation during its progress towards adoption and application. She is the Series Editor for the Business and the Environment Practitioner Series, a series of practical business reports addressing current and emerging environmental topics of importance to companies, and has recently published a reportThe Eco-management and audit Scheme-A Practical Guide. She has also published many papers on the subjects of environmental auditing and the EU Eco-management and audit scheme.     

Towards mitigation of greenhouse gases by small changes in farming practices: understanding local barriers in Spain

Small changes in agricultural practices have a large potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the implementation of such practices at the local level is often limited by a range of barriers. Understanding the barriers is essential for defining effective measures, the actual mitigation potential of the measures, and the policy needs to ensure implementation. Here we evaluate behavioural, cultural, and policy barriers for implementation of mitigation practices at the local level that imply small changes to farmers. The choice of potential mitigation practices relevant to the case study is based on a literature review of previous empirical studies. Two methods that include the stakeholders’ involvement (experts and farmers) are undertaken for the prioritization of these potential practices: (a) Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) of the choices of an expert panel and (b) Analysis of barriers to implementation based on a survey of farmers. The MCA considers two future climate scenarios – current climate and a drier and warmer climate scenario. Results suggest that all potential selected practices are suitable for mitigation considering multiple criteria in both scenarios. Nevertheless, if all the barriers for implementation had the same influence, the preferred mitigation practices in the case study would be changes in fertilization management and use of cover crops. The identification of barriers for the implementation of the practices is based on the econometric analysis of surveys given to farmers. Results show that farmers’ environmental concerns, financial incentives and access to technical advice are the main factors that define their barriers to implementation. These results may contribute to develop effective mitigation policy to be included in the 2020 review of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.     

Effect of field margins on moths depends on species mobility: Field-based evidence for landscape-scale conservation

Agri-environment schemes (AES) are widely used policy instruments intended to combat widespread biodiversity declines across agricultural landscapes. Here, using a light trapping and mark-release-recapture study at a field-scale on nine common and widespread larger moth species, we investigate the effect of wide field margins (a popular current scheme option) and the presence of hedgerow trees (a potential scheme option in England) on moth abundance. Of these, we show that wide field margins positively affected abundances, although species did not all respond in the same way. We demonstrate that this variation can be attributed to species-specific mobility characteristics. Those species for which the effect of wide margins was strongest covered shorter distances, and were more frequently recaptured at their site of first capture. This demonstrates that the standard, field-scale uptake of AES may be effective only for less mobile species. We discuss that a landscape-scale approach, in contrast, could deliver significant biodiversity gains, as our results indicate that such an approach (perhaps delivered through targeting farmers to join AES) would be effective for the majority of wider countryside species, irrespective of their mobility level.     

Participatory scenario planning to facilitate human–wildlife coexistence

Fostering human–wildlife coexistence requires transdisciplinary approaches that integrate multiple sectors, account for complexity and uncertainty, and ensure stakeholder participation. One such approach is participatory scenario planning, but to date, this approach has not been used in human–wildlife contexts. We devised a template for how participatory scenario planning can be applied to identify potential avenues for improving human–wildlife coexistence. We drew on 3 conceptual building blocks, namely the SEEDS framework, the notion of critical uncertainties, and the three-horizons technique. To illustrate the application of the proposed template, we conducted a case study in the Zambezi region of Namibia. We held 5 multistakeholder workshops that involved local people as well as numerous nongovernment and government stakeholders. We identified 14 important wildlife species that generated multiple services and disservices. The subsequent benefits and burdens, in turn, were inequitably distributed among stakeholders. Government actors played particularly influential roles in shaping social-ecological outcomes. We identified 2 critical uncertainties for the future: the nature of governance (fragmented vs. collaborative) and the type of wildlife economy (hunting vs. photography based). Considering these uncertainties resulted in 4 plausible scenarios describing future human–wildlife coexistence. Stakeholders did not agree on a single preferred scenario, but nevertheless agreed on several high-priority strategies. Bridging the remaining gaps among actors will require ongoing deliberation among stakeholders. Navigating the complex challenges posed by living with wildlife requires moving beyond disciplinary approaches. To that end, our template could prove useful in many landscapes around the world.     

Quantifying fluctuations in winter productive cropped area in the Central Indian Highlands

The Central Indian Highland landscape (CIHL) represents a complex, diverse, and highly human-modified system. Nearly half the landscape is cropland, yet it hosts 21 protected areas surrounded and connected by forests. Changing farming practices with increasing access to irrigation might alter this intensifying landscape in the near future particularly in light of weather variability. We analyzed a decade of remote sensing data for cropping patterns and climatic factors combined with census data for irrigation and demographic factors to understand winter cropping trajectories in the CIHL. We quantified ‘productive cropped area’ (PCA), defined as the area with planted crop that is green at the peak of the winter growing season. We find three primary trajectories in PCA—increasing, fluctuating, and decreasing. The most dominant trend is fluctuating PCA in two-thirds of the districts, ranging from ~2.11 million to ~3.73 million ha between 2001 and 2013, which is associated with village-level access to irrigation and local labor dynamics. In 58 % of all districts, clay soils were associated with winter cropping (p < 0.05). Increasing irrigation is associated with increased winter PCA in most (94 %) districts (p < 0.00001). We find strong negative association between PCA and land surface temperature (LST) in most (66 %) districts (p < 0.01). LST closely corresponds to daytime mean air temperature (p < 0.001) for available meteorological stations. Fine-scale meteorological and socioeconomic data, however, are needed to further disentangle impacts of these factors on PCA in this landscape.     

Erratum to: Addressing future trade-offs between biodiversity and cropland expansion to improve food security

Potential trade-offs between providing sufficient food for a growing human population in the future and sustaining ecosystems and their services are driven by various biophysical and socio-economic parameters at different scales. In this study, we investigate these trade-offs by using a three-step interdisciplinary approach. We examine (1) how the expected global cropland expansion might affect food security in terms of agricultural production and prices, (2) where natural conditions are suitable for cropland expansion under changing climate conditions, and (3) whether this potential conversion to cropland would affect areas of high biodiversity value or conservation importance. Our results show that on the one hand, allowing the expansion of cropland generally results in an improved food security not only in regions where crop production rises, but also in net importing countries such as India and China. On the other hand, the estimated cropland expansion could take place in many highly biodiverse regions, pointing out the need for spatially detailed and context-specific assessments to understand the possible outcomes of different food security strategies. Our multidisciplinary approach is relevant with respect to the Sustainable Development Goals for implementing and enforcing sustainable pathways for increasing agricultural production, and ensuring food security while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services.