Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

福建省安全生产与经济社会发展关系研究

安全生产是一个国家或地区经济社会发展过程中必然面临的一个课题.通过统计分析福建省经济社会发展相关指标及安全生产事故相关指标,分析了安全生产与经济社会发展之间的联系,论述了两者的辩证统一关系.     

聚硅酸氯化铝处理皂素废水的研究

制备了聚硅酸氯化铝(PASC)絮凝剂,并用其进行了皂素废水处理实验。考察了絮凝剂投加量、pH值、搅拌速度对COD和浊度去除率的影响。结果表明,当絮凝剂投加量为9～13.5 mg/L、pH值5～7、搅拌速度150～250 r/min时,COD和浊度去除效果较好。最佳工艺条件为：絮凝剂投加量11.25 mg/L、pH值6、搅拌速度200 r/min。此时,COD去除率为93.7％,浊度去除率为97.5％。PASC的絮凝性能明显优于PAC。     

液晶显示器液晶处理与铟回收技术

在实验室条件下,对液晶显示器回收的各个重要环节作了初步的探索,提出了一整套回收工艺.其中包括利用丙酮常温浸取去除偏光片、分离玻璃基板、溶解液晶,还包括利用硫酸溶液和二氧化锰联合浸取玻璃基板,铟的浸取率达89%.得到的铟的酸液经过萃取、置换和电解,可以得到铟的产品,为液晶显示器的资源化和无害化提供实验数据和技术支持.     

基于信息量⁃Scoops3D联合模型的地质灾害易发性评价∗

贵渝管道沿线地势险峻、构造活跃、雨量集中,崩滑流等地质灾害十分发育,科学开展管道沿线地质灾害的易发性评估工作对确保其安全运行至关重要。本研究在查明管道沿线自然地质环境及地质灾害分布的基础上,结合管道沿线地形地质特征、管道展布与斜坡体的相互空间位置关系划分了 101 段适合管道工程特点的评价单元,基于信息量数理统计模型与 Scoops3D 物理力学模型对管道沿线地质灾害的易发性进行了评价。评价结果表明管道沿线地质灾害的高易发区主要集中在遵义及桐梓县附近,其中 7 段处于极高易发区,26 段处于高易发区,20 段处于中易发区,30 段处于低易发区,18 段处于极低易发区。通过 ROC 曲线分别求得信息量、Scoops3D 以及二者联合模型的 AUC 值分别为 0.796、0.683 和 0.803,结果表明信息量-Scoops3D 联合模型的评价准确性最高。     

安徽明光市凹凸棒石粘土资源的开发利用

安徽明光市凹凸棒石粘土资源丰富，在我国稀有非金属矿产资源中占有重要地位。通过调查明光市凹凸棒石粘土资源、的基本状况和开发利用现状特征，分析了资源开发利用中存在的问题，提出了可持续发展的对策建议。     

生物膜填料塔净化有机废气研究

为在国内开展生物化学法净化低浓度有机废气的研究工作,采用国内现有微生物菌种挂膜接种的生物膜填料塔净化低浓度甲苯废气,结果表明,在入口气体甲苯浓度0.183～1.803mg/L及气体流量86.4～190.8L/h（停留时间6.2～13.6s）的实验范围内,增加入口气体甲苯浓度和气体流量,可使甲苯的生化去除量增大,每升体积的生物膜填料对甲苯的生化去除量最大可达157.13mg/h。由实验结果推断,生物膜填料塔对废气中甲苯的净化去除过程属于传质控制过程。对比结果表明,本研究建立的动力学模式对实际过程有很好的适用性,计算值与实验值之间的相关系数R＝0.98。