事故预测方法研究述评

将事故预测方法归纳为情景分析法、回归预测法、时间预测法、马尔可夫链状预测法、灰色预测法和非线性预测法6大类,并进行分析和比较.结果表明:1)目前的预测方法大多针对各自行业部门,因此采用自身相适应的预测方法和提高预测精度是事故预测的关键;2)剔除随机性和偶然性,提取异常点和异质性是工业事故进行预测建模的依据;3)系统安全是一个动态随机的非线性过程,应将定性与定量、线性与非线性、静态与动态预测方法相结合,进行组合预测才有可能实现最优预测;4)基于状态预测的事故优生理念,是未来事故预测理论的发展趋势.     

Diffusion pollution from livestock and poultry rearing in the Yangtze Delta,China

BACKGROUND: The Yangtze Delta is one of the most developed regions in China and includes Shanghai, eight cities in Jiangsu province and eight cities in Zhejiang province. Meat consumption in this region has increased with economic growth, and most of the consumed meat is produced locally. The water quality of surface waters has deteriorated in recent years. An example was the huge blue-green algae bloom in Tai Lake in late May 2007, which affected millions of people's daily drinking water. However, animal husbandry is considered to be one of the main pollution sources. METHODS: Pollutants (NH3-N, total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN)) excreted by livestock and poultry, and the resultant COD (chemical oxygen demand) and BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), were estimated using two different methods based on different data sets. RESULTS: The number of livestock and poultry has remained stable in the Yangtze Delta over the four years from 1999 to 2002, with the average number of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry being 21.1 M, 0.4 M, 7.7 M and 597.6 M, respectively. Pollutants in livestock and poultry excreta estimated by Method I were: 0.12 Mt NH3-N, 0.11 Mt TP and 0.29 Mt TN, resulting in COD and BOD of 1.34 Mt and 1.30 Mt, respectively, while the estimations based on Method II were: 0.18 Mt NH3-N, 0.15 Mt TP and 0.40 Mt TN, resulting in COD and BOD of 1.95 Mt and 1.80 Mt, respectively. DISCUSSION: Pollutants excreted annually by livestock and poultry in the Yangtze Delta are estimated to be: 0.17 Mt NH3-N, 0.16 Mt TP and 0.42 Mt TN, giving rise to a COD of 1.86 Mt and a BOD of 1.72 Mt. Approximately 25% of this pollution was estimated to enter water bodies, which means that the annual pollutant load is 43,700 t NH3-N, 39,400 tTP, 104,600t TN with a COD of 465,000 tand a BOD of 430,100 t. Pollutants from animal husbandry were similar in magnitude to those from industrial wastewater. Pigs produced the most pollution, followed by poultry, cattle and sheep. The pollution load from animal husbandry in the Yangtze Delta is about twice the average level of the whole of China. CONCLUSIONS: Domestic wastewater was the main pollution source in the Yangtze Delta, followed by pollution from raising livestock and poultry and from industrial wastewater. The pollution load in Shanghai and Jiaxing were the greatest, followed by 7 cities of Jiangsu province (except Suzhou) and other cities of Zhejiang province and Suzhou. Pigs and poultry produced about 90% of the total pollutants from animal husbandry. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: The local governments, especially in Shanghai and Jiaxing, should focus their attention on the pollution produced by livestock and poulrry. Controlling pollution from pigs and poultry will have the greatest impact in this region. Control of pollution will be facilitated by the development of large-scale livestock and poultry farming units and a shift away from small scale husbandry.     

Remobilization of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons during the resuspension of Yangtze River sediments using a particle entrainment simulator

Remobilization of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during sediment resuspension was investigated using a particle entrainment simulator at shear stress from 0.2 to 0.5Nm(-2), typical of the energy levels present in many tidally driven aquatic environments. The results suggested that desorption from the entrained particles was the primary source of dissolved PAHs. summation operatorPAHs concentrations in particles on volume normalization increased about four times. However, on mass weight basis, summation operatorPAHs concentrations decreased from 6039.74+/-138.28microgkg(-1) to 1665.39+/-112.26microgkg(-1). The same trend was observed for individual PAHs. Dissolved concentrations of PAHs demonstrated significant differences depending on molecular weight and applied shear. The distribution of PAHs between particle and water phase suggested that for three-ring PAHs, the amounts of PAHs in particles were higher than the predicted values during our experiments. This might be due to presence of another active sorbent.     

Eutrophication conditions and ecological status in typical bays of Lake Taihu in China

Sampling was conducted at three site groups, group E (in East Taihu Bay), G (in Gonghu Bay) and M (in Meiliang Bay) in Lake Taihu. TN and TP concentrations among site groups was in the increasing order of E < G < M. TP level at G sites is at the critical threshold for loss of submersed macrophytes. Mean values of DO and Transparence showed different trend, i.e., E > G > M. The mean phytoplankton fresh-weight biomass at M sites was 5.81 mg/l, higher than that at E sites (4.96 mg/l) and G sites (5.18 mg/l). Mean zooplankton fresh-weight biomass was in the decreasing order of M (6.4 mg/l) > G (4.9 mg/l) > E (2.7 mg/l). However, Rotifera density was in the sequence of E > G > M. Both zooplankton biomass and phytoplankton biomass increased with the rise of TN and TP concentrations. Relationships between zooplankton biomass and phytoplankton biomass showed that zooplankton played a limited role in the control of algae in eutrophic lakes. Nutrient availability is much more important than zooplankton grazing pressure in controlling phytoplankton growth in lakes. For most sites in Lake Taihu, reduction of nutrient loading, as well as macrophyte conservation, zappears to be especially important in maintaining high water quality and regulating lake biological structure, but for M sites, it’s urgent to control nutrient inputs rather than to restore macrophyte community.     

试论生态文明建设中的环境保护

随着经济的发展，人们越来越清醒地认识到，以污染环境和破坏生态来换取一时经济繁荣的危害日益突出。正是这种清醒，推动人类文明进行着一场深刻的反思和变革，把追求人与自然的和谐相处，推上当今社会发展主旋律的位置，它预示着人类进入一个生态文明的新时代。生态文明是协调发展物质文明的保障者，是与时俱进的精神文明的塑造者，是日益完善的政治文明的体现者。因此，建设生态文明既是实现全面建设小康社会奋斗目标的内在需要，又是深入贯彻落实科学发展观的重要内容；建设生态文明，必须强化政策支撑，增加生态文明建设的内生动力；必须强化执法监督，增加生态文明建设的环保执行力；必须强化生态补偿能力，构建最具活力的绿色发展模式。     

全程自养颗粒污泥快速启动及混合营养型脱氮性能分析

在连续流条件下,基于颗粒污泥全程自养脱氮（CANON）工艺的快速启动和混合营养条件下高效脱氮,是CANON工程应用的重要环节.本研究在气提内循环反应器（AIR）中,以老化的CANON颗粒污泥经机械破碎至0.3 mm作为种泥,实现混合营养型单级颗粒污泥同步脱氮除碳.启动26 d,通过控制DO,系统出现稳定的部分硝化,再缩短HRT提升氨氮负荷至5.65 kg ·（m³ ·d）^-1,促进颗粒化和厌氧氨氧化;第68 d,总氮去除率达到58%之后,进水加入有机物,C/N从0提升到0.25和0.5,促进AOB、AMX和异养微生物的协同,氨氮去除率达95%,总氮去除率达85%,COD去除率达80%左右.COD浓度增加,能较好地抑制Nitrospira菌属等NOB的活性,q（NH₄⁺-N）和q（TN）稳定在0.4 g ·（g ·h）^-1和0.34 g ·（g ·h）^-1,q（NO₃^--N）约为0.02 g ·（g ·h）^-1.采用MiSeq高通量测序对微生物多样性分析,表明有机物对污泥中Nitrosomomas和Candidutus_Kuenenia丰度未产生显著影响,增加了Candidutus_Brocadia菌属以及具有反硝化功能Denitratisoma等菌属的丰度.这对于快速启动连续流CANON颗粒污泥工艺处理低C/N比废水提供思路.     

基于绝对主成分-多元线性回归的滇池污染源解析

定量解析污染源是湖泊流域水环境管理的重要基础.基于滇池草海和外海多年水质监测数据,采用主成分分析（PCA）方法识别了主要水质指标的污染源类型,利用绝对主成分-多元线性回归模型（APCS-MLR）得到不同污染源对水质的贡献程度.结果表明,草海主要的污染源有农业面源、城市面源和内源3类,外海的主要污染源是农业面源、城镇生活污染源、城市面源和内源4类.与河流水污染源解析结果不同,底泥内源与气象因子对滇池主要水质指标的影响较大.     

MnFe2O4磁性纳米棒非均相Fenton催化降解水中四环素的研究

采用水热合成法成功制备出MnFe₂O₄磁性纳米棒（s-MnFe₂O₄）,并考察了商品化的Fe₃O₄、MnFe₂O₄和合成的s-MnFe₂O₄纳米棒这3种磁性纳米颗粒作为非均相Fenton催化剂降解水中四环素抗生素的性能.同时,采用X射线衍射（XRD）、透射电镜（TEM）、N₂吸附-脱附、振动样品磁强计（VSM）及X射线光电子能谱（XPS）等技术对催化剂的理化性质进行了表征.非均相Fenton催化降解四环素的结果表明,s-MnFe₂O₄具有最高的催化活性,反应180 min,四环素的去除率可以达到87.6%,TOC的去除率达到47.5%.自由基捕获试验证实了羟基自由基（·OH）是非均相Fenton氧化过程中的主要活性物种.s-MnFe₂O₄磁性纳米棒的高催化活性归因于其表面拥有较高含量的Mn³⁺和Fe²⁺物种,它们的存在能加速界面电子的转移效率,从而促进·OH的生成.合成的s-MnFe₂O₄催化剂具有良好的稳定性,循环使用6次,四环素的去除率仅从87.6%降低到80.2%,且氧化过程中活性组分的流失很少.     

水质监测频率与极端气候对高原湖泊入湖河流氮磷通量估算的影响

河流是流域氮磷营养盐的主要输出途径之一,准确掌握其通量变化和驱动因素对流域营养盐管理具有重要意义.本研究以滇池主要入湖河流宝象河为例,基于周水质观测数据和逐日水量数据,构建了河流氮磷通量LOADSET模型.估算了宝象河不同时间尺度（日、季、年）TN和TP的通量,评估了4种低频水质采样和极端气候指数对河流氮磷通量计算的影响.结果表明：①2018年宝象河的TN和TP年通量分别为270.49 t和11.19 t,存在显著的年内差异,夏季是通量最高的季节,分别占TN和TP年通量的40.78%和41.96%.②基于LOADEST模型的低频水质采样的氮磷估算结果与高频采样差异较小,宝象河TN、TP通量估算受采样频率影响较小.③宝象河的TN和TP通量变化受连续5日最大降水量、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、最低气温、最低气温极大值、最高气温极小值和平均温差7种极端气候指数的显著影响.     

世界能源百年变局与国家能源安全

在百年未有之大变局的背景下,我国当前所面临的能源形势日趋复杂,能源安全愈加成为攸关国家经济发展的重大战略。新形势下,无论是学科层面上世界能源地理与国家能源安全的科学问题、研究对象、研究方法等,还是国家现实需求上全球能源治理体系与国际能源合作等问题,都亟待专家学者们深入交流与讨论。通过“一问一答”的访谈方式,展示主持人与九位学界或业界访谈嘉宾基于不同视角的问答内容。分别围绕能源安全的内涵与全球能源治理模式、我国能源安全面临的挑战与对策、全球能源地缘政治形势的新变化、世界能源生产空间和消费空间不平等地理格局下的能源安全、全球能源低碳转型趋势下的中国能源高质量发展、重大突发公共卫生事件影响下的全球能源供需格局变化、未来能源地理学的研究前景与重要研究方向等一系列内容发表观点。以期达成一定共识,从而更好地研讨世界能源地理学的关键问题,并积极应对世界能源的百年变局,提出保障国家能源安全的应对措施等。