MITIGATING IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: We evaluated the effects of institutional responses developed for coping with a severe sustained drought (SSD) in the Colorado River Basin on selected system variables using a SSD inflow hydrology derived from the drought which occurred in the Colorado River basin from 1579–1616. Institutional responses considered are reverse equalization, salinity reduction, minimum flow requirements, and temporary suspension of the delivery obligation of the Colorado River Compact. Selected system variables (reservoir contents, streamflows, consumptive uses, salinity, and power generation) from scenarios incorporating the drought-coping responses were compared to those from Baseline conditions using the current operating criteria. The coping responses successfully mitigated some impacts of the SSD on consumptive uses in the Upper Basin with only slight impacts on consumptive uses in the Lower Basin, and successfully maintained specified minimum streamflows throughout the drought with no apparent effect on consumptive uses. The impacts of the coping responses on other system variables were not as clear cut. We also assessed the effects of the drought-coping responses to normal and wet hydrologic conditions to determine if they were overly conservative. The results show that the rules would have inconsequential effects on the system during normal and wet years.     

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF BMP EFFECTWENESS FOR CONTROLLING NITROGEN FROM URBAN NONPOINT SOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of urban Best Management Practices (BMPs) in achieving the No-Net-Increase Policy (NNTP), a policy designed to limit nonpoint nitrogen loading to Long Island Sound (US), is analyzed. A unit loading model is used to simulate annual nitrogen exported from the Norwalk River watershed (Connecticut) under current and future conditions. A probabilistic uncertainty analysis is used to incorporate uncertainty in nitrogen export coefficients and BMP nitrogen removal effectiveness. The inclusion of uncertainty in BMP effectiveness and nitrogen export coefficients implies that additional BMPs, or BMPs with a greater effectiveness in nitrogen removal, will be required to achieve the NNIP. Even though including uncertainty leads to an increase in BMP implementation rates or BMP effectiveness, this type of analysis provides the decision maker with a more realistic assessment of the likelihood that implementing BMPs as a management strategy will be successful. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that applying BMPs to new urban developments alone will not be sufficient to achieve the NNIP since BMPs are not 100 percent effective in removing the increase in nitrogen caused by urbanization. BMPs must also be applied to selected existing urban areas. BMPs with a nitrogen removal effectiveness of 40–60 percent, probably the highest level of removal that can be expected over an entire watershed, must be applied to at least 75 percent of the existing urban area to achieve the NNIP This high rate of application is not likely to be achieved in urbanized watersheds in the LIS watershed; therefore, additional point source control will be necessary to achieve the NNIP     

Developing Decentralized Capacity for Disaster Prevention: Lessons from Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring in Malawi

Lack of sufficient analytical capacity in most of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa has been frequently mentioned as a major factor limiting the effectiveness of drought management interventions. In this article we describe an approach used in Malawi for the past three years to develop a decentralized capacity to analyse drought management and disaster prevention programmes. A conceptual framework is presented which identifies the areas in which capacity strengthening is required and lessons from the Malawi experience are presented. Various issues relating to the efficiency of capacity building programmes are discussed. We argue that continuous dialogue between development researchers and decision-makers, and between trainers in academic institutions and donor agencies, is essential for achieving the goals of improved capacity for drought management and disaster prevention.     

Ecological approach to resource survey and planning for environmentally significant Areas: The ABC method

A resource survey and planning method for parks, reserves, and other environmentally significant areas (ESAs) is presented in the context of a holistic balanced approach to land use and environmental management. This method provides a framework for the acquisition, analysis, presentation, and application of diverse ecological data pertinent to land use planning and resource management within ESAs. Through the independent analysis and subsequent integration of abiotic, biotic, and cultural or ABC information, land areas within an ESA are identified in terms of their relative environmental significance and environmental constraints. The former term encompasses wildlife, historic, and other resource values, while the latter term reflects biophysical hazards and sensitivities, and land use conflicts. The method thus calls for a matching of an ESA's distinctive attributes with appropriate land use and institutional arrancements through an analysis of available acts, regulations, agencies, and other conservation and land use management mechanisms. The method culminates with a management proposal showing proposed park or reserve allocations, buffer areas, or other land use controls aimed at preserving an ESA's special ecological qualities, while providing for resource development. The authors suggest that all resource management decisions affecting ESA's should be governed by a philosophical stance that recognizes a spectrum of broad land use types, ranging from preservation to extractive use and rehabilitation.     

Determination of optimum minimum flow from a dam by using energy analysis

The proposed restoration of an abandoned hydroelectric dam on the Quinebaug River, Connecticut, is studied using energy analysis. The analysis considers the effects of alternative minimum flow releases, ranging from 0 to 34 cubic meters per second (cms), on the total energy flow of the affected system. The principal system components affected by differing minimum flows are hydroelectric power generation, aquatic habitat, and gross aquatic ecosystem productivity.The minimum flow alternative resulting in the highest annual energy flow in the affected system is considered optimal. From this purely analytical point of view, the optimum minimum flow is 0 cms, due to the short length and low productivity of the regulated reach, and the lack of floodplain interactions.Simulations of longer and more productive river reaches were conducted. For very short, unproductive reaches, in the absence of a floodplain, the contribution of aquatic community productivity to total system energy flow is negligible compared to hydroelectric generation. Optimum minimum flows are higher for longer and more productive reaches. For such cases the operation of hydroelectric dams could reduce total system energy flow because the energy supplied by hydroelectric generation may be offset by losses in aquatic productivity due to diminished riverine habitat.     

SIMULATION OF HERBICIDE CONCENTRATIONS IN STORMFLOW FROM FORESTED WATERSHEDS1

The breakpoint rainfall hydrology and pesticide options of the field scale model CREAMS (Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems) were used to predict average concentrations of hexazinone [3 cyclohexyl-6-(dimethyl-amino)-1-methyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4(1H,3H)-dione] in stormflow from four forested watersheds in the upper Piedmont region of Georgia. Predicted concentrations were compared with measured concentrations recorded over a 13-month period. CREAMS accurately predicted hexazinone concetrations in the initial stormflow events which also contained the highest concentrations. The model underestimated the hexazinone concentrations in stormflow two months and greater following pesticide application. In a companion study, the daily rainfall option of the CREAMS model was used to evaluate the reltive risk associated with the maximum expected concentration of hexazinone, bromacil (5-bromo-3 sec-butyl-6 methyuracil), picloram (4-amino-3,5,6 trichloropicolinic acid), dicamba (3,6-dichloro-0-anisic acid), and triclopyr {[(3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinyl)oxy] acetic acid} in stormflow from small forested watersheds. The model predicted the following order of potential residue appearance in stormflow: bromacil>triclopyr>hexazinone>picloram>dicamba. Subsurface movement of residues via interflow and deep leaching losses are not simulated by the version of CREAMS used in these studies.     

Insect habitat management in pasture systems

Two important habitat management strategies in pasture systems involve controlled burning and effective grazing manipulation schemes to maintain native climax grassland vegetation These climax grasslands have historically suffered less insect pest pressure than imported systems However, these types of grasslands are difficult to reestablish after relatively severe disruption by man Also, the proper diversity and stability is difficult to capture in developing imported systems. Imported pastures can exhibit substantial yields per land unit but are often composed of vegetation that rapidly mines nutrients stored by the native vegetation, and often need considerable inputs of fossil fuel, manufactured fertilizers and pesticides, because they are or become very susceptible to pestiferous insects. Habitat manipulation efforts can be effective in regulating forage pest populations below economic levels in imported pasture systems Such efforts include: 1) land use (coupled with plant diversity, grazing, and harvest manipulations), 2) sanitation (including controlled burning), 3) planting dates and harvest times (including grazing manipulations), 4) tillage methods, 5) fertilization, 6) trap crops, 7) water management, and 8) fire management for insect pest suppression and augmentation of natural enemies.     

Nonpoint source water pollution abatement and the feasibility of voluntary programs

This article details a case study of a voluntary, decentralized institutional arrangement for nonpint source water pollution control used in the Root River watershed in southeastern Wisconsin. This watershed was chosen because of its mix of urban, agricultural, and urbanizing land uses. The project objectives were to monitor and draw conclusions about the effectiveness of a voluntary, decentralized institutional system, to specify deficiencies of the approach and suggest means to correct them, and to use the conclusions to speculate about the need for regulations regarding nonpoint source pollution control or the appropriateness of financial incentives for nonpoint source control. Institutional factors considered include diversity of land uses in the watershed, educational needs, economic conditions, personality, water quality, number of agencies involved, definition of authority, and bureaucratic requirements