Effective field sampling for predicting the spatial distribution of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) with help of the Gibbs sampler

We describe an approach to estimation of the spatial distribution of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus). Spatial autocorrelation, inherent to the data describing the distribution of wildlife species, contains information that can be utilized to improve the effciency of field inventories. Our data included reindeer fecal pellet counts, satellite imagery and a digital terrain model. We applied ordinary logistic regression, autologistic regression, and the Gibbs sampler to predict spatial distribution of reindeer based on the combined data. A training set was used to compare the outcome for different field sampling designs for each method. Results suggested the possibility to reduce the number of plots by up to 75% with a 15% reduction in prediction accuracy (quality). We also showed that the Gibbs sampler outperformed, in terms of accuracy, the logistic regression. The outcome, however, was dependent on the spectral homogeneity of the area and on the relative position of the sampling design to the elevation curves. Our results justify the incorporation of spatial information when modeling the distribution of reindeer at finer scales (< 1 km).     

A status report on the U.S. national dioxin study

In 1983, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) embarked on an extensive investigation of the presence and extent of contamination of the national environment by CDDs/CDFs. This status report is a prelude to a final report to be delivered to the US Congress in December, 1985.     

A Rapid Response Survey to Characterize the Impacts of the 2017 High Water Event on Lake Ontario

In the spring and summer of 2017, communities along the Lake Ontario shoreline suffered from the worst flood event on record. In late May, daily water levels reached their highest point in over 100 years, and flooding continued throughout much of the summer as lake levels slowly declined, with inundation and erosion significantly impacting shoreline homes and businesses. In this work, we present results from a rapid response online survey of property owners along the New York Lake Ontario shoreline to quantify the perceived flood impacts of the 2017 extended high water event. The survey focused on the degree and spatial distribution of inundation and erosion; the duration and drivers of inundation; the associated damages to different property features, with an emphasis on shoreline protection; and the degree of disruption to business and other activities and services. Photographic documentation of inundation extent and property damage also was provided by survey respondents. We demonstrate the potential utility of this dataset by characterizing key features of inundation and erosion impacts across the shoreline, and by using classification and regression trees to explore the predictability of inundation and erosion based on property characteristics. This work is part of a larger effort to develop models of inundation and erosion that can support flood impact assessments across the shoreline and help communities better prepare for future extended high water events.     

Numerical model to quantify biogenic volatile organic compound emissions: The Pearl River Delta region as a case study

This article compiles the actual knowledge of the biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions estimated using model methods in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, one of the most developed regions in China. The developed history of BVOC emission models is presented briefly and three typical emission models are introduced and compared. The results from local studies related to BVOC emissions have been summarized. Based on this analysis, it is recommended that local researchers conduct BVOC emission studies systematically, from the assessment of model inputs, to compiling regional emission inventories to quantifying the uncertainties and evaluating the model results. Beyond that, more basic researches should be conducted in the future to close the gaps in knowledge on BVOC emission mechanisms, to develop the emission models and to refine the inventory results. This paper can provide a perspective on these aspects in the broad field of research associated with BVOC emissions in the PRD region.     

Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision‐making in disaster risk reduction.     

Shiny cowbirds share foster mothers but not true mothers in multiply parasitized mockingbird nests

Obligate brood parasitic birds, such as cowbirds, evade parental care duties by laying their eggs in the nests of other species. Cowbirds are assumed to avoid laying repeatedly in the same nest so as to prevent intrabrood competition between their offspring. However, because searching for host nests requires time and energy, laying more than one egg per nest might be favoured where hosts are large and can readily rear multiple parasites per brood. Such ‘repeat parasitism’ by females would have important consequences for parasite evolution because young parasites would then incur indirect fitness costs from behaving selfishly. We investigated shiny cowbird (Molothrus bonariensis) parasitism of a large host, the chalk-browed mockingbird (Mimus saturninus), in a population where over 70 % of the parasitized mockingbird nests receive multiple cowbird eggs. We assessed egg maternity directly, using cameras at nests to film the laying of individually-marked females. We also supplemented video data with evidence from egg morphology, after confirming that each female lays eggs of a consistent appearance. From 133 eggs laid, we found that less than 5 % were followed by the same female visiting the nest to lay again or to puncture eggs. Multiple eggs in mockingbird nests were instead the result of different females, with up to eight individuals parasitizing a single brood. Thus, while cowbird chicks regularly share mockingbird nests with conspecifics, these are unlikely to be their maternal siblings. Our results are consistent with shiny cowbird females following a one-egg-per-nest rule, even where hosts can rear multiple parasitic young.     

Boldness and body size of male Spanish terrapins affect their responses to chemical cues of familiar and unfamiliar males

Recognition and avoidance of conspecifics based on chemical cues could reduce the risk of aggressive interactions between males. Success in agonistics encounters with unfamiliar males should be lower than with previously known familiar males. Then, males should avoid the chemicals from unfamiliar males with respect to those from familiar males. However, boldness and size could affect the outcome of encounters between males and, consequently, the response to chemical cues of conspecific males. We compared the time spent by male turtles Mauremys leprosa in water pools with chemical stimuli from unfamiliar or familiar males or with their own chemical stimuli. We also performed a behavioral test to estimate boldness of turtles in an antipredatory situation. Turtles avoided the chemicals from unfamiliar males respect to familiar ones and their own odors, but their responses depended on boldness and size of the tested turtle. Bold turtles avoided water with chemicals of unfamiliar males, but not with chemicals of familiar males, whereas shy turtles avoided chemicals of both familiar and unfamiliar males. On the other hand, large males avoided the odor from unfamiliar males, but small males did not avoid water with the odor from other males. Results suggest that male M. leprosa can detect chemicals released to water from conspecific males and discriminate between familiar and unfamiliar males. However, responses to these chemicals depended on boldness and body size of the responding turtle because these factors may affect intrasexual competition.     

Rapana venosa as an indicator species for TBT exposure over decadal and seasonal scales

Imposex and decline in reproductive output in marine gastropods have been linked to tributyltin (TBT) exposure. This study describes Chesapeake Bay, USA, veined rapa whelk Rapana venosa imposex incidence and sex ratios from 1998 to 2009. Tissue TBT concentrations (ng g^?1) were examined with respect to whelk sex, size, and water temperature at the time of collection, and also to egg case size, hatching success, and veliger diameter. Imposex incidence declined and population sex ratios moved closer to parity from 1998 to 2009. Observed TBT concentrations (ng g^?1) were higher in James River than in Ocean View whelks with higher TBT concentrations observed in males than in females. Exponential declines in TBT concentrations from female-specific first to last clutches within a reproductive season were observed, indicating that whelks depurate TBT through egg case deposition. Egg capsule hatching success and veliger size were similar for female and imposex whelks. The R. venosa imposex levels observed in Chesapeake Bay apparently do not affect the production, release, or viability of larvae.     

Flooding,resettlement, and change in livelihoods: evidence from rural Mozambique

Post‐disaster development policies, such as resettlement, can have major impacts on communities. This paper examines how and why people's livelihoods change as a result of resettlement, and relocated people's views of such changes, in the context of natural disasters. It presents two historically‐grounded, comparative case studies of post‐flood resettlement in rural Mozambique. The studies demonstrate a movement away from rain‐fed subsistence agriculture towards commercial agriculture and non‐agricultural activities. The ability to secure a viable livelihood was a key determinant of whether resettlers remained in their new locations or returned to the river valleys despite the risks posed by floods. The findings suggest that more research is required to understand i) why resettlers choose to stay in or abandon designated resettlement areas, ii) what is meant by ‘voluntary’ and ‘involuntary’ resettlement in the realm of post‐disaster reconstruction, and iii) the policy drivers of resettlement in developing countries.     

An ecosystem model for estimating potential shellfish culture production in sheltered coastal waters

A generic ecosystem model has been developed for estimating the potential production of shellfish culture and the effect of that cultivation on the pelagic ecosystem in sheltered coastal waters. The model describes the dynamics of a simple food web, nutrient cycling and growth of shellfish. The design of the model is closely tied to the temporal and spatial scales that are important in determining the sustainable production level for a particular embayment. The pelagic ecosystem, mussel energetics, population dynamics and hydrodynamics are coupled to allow fully dynamic predictions of the effect of the shellfish density. When applied to Beatrix Bay, an intensive culture embayment in the Pelorus Sound of New Zealand, the model successfully captured main features of the observed system behaviour. The hydrodynamic regime of the bay controls mussel growth and production. Although high fluxes of water into the bay suppress nutrient and carbon cycling signals in the system, the model simulations demonstrated that the mussel cultivation can have considerable effects on the ecosystem of the bay including food depletion and nutrient cycling. One of the most obvious effects is nutrient enhancement through mussel excretion at low cultivation densities, which promotes primary production particularly during the N-limitation period in summer. The sensitivity analysis identified uncertainty in some parameters and indicated areas for which experimental studies could lead to model improvement. The modelling exercise has established a primary predictive tool for managing mussel aquaculture of a coastal embayment to estimate relationships between the stock level and the growth rate of mussels, and the potentially achievable harvest and stocking density.