Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha (NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.     

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1–4°C and 1–5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

Implications:?Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1–5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).     

Determinants of maternal and fetal exposure and temporal trends of perfluorinated compounds

In recent years, some perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) have been identified as potentially hazardous substances which are harmful to the environment and human health. According to limited data, PFC levels in humans could be influenced by several determinants. However, the findings are inconsistent. In the present study, perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) were measured in paired maternal and cord serum samples (N?=?237) collected between 1978 and 2001 in Southern Sweden to study the relationship between these and to investigate several potential determinants of maternal and fetal exposure to PFCs. Time trends of PFCs in Swedish women were also evaluated. The study is a part of the Fetal Environment and Neurodevelopment Disorders in Epidemiological Research project. PFOS, PFOA, and PFNA levels (median) were higher in maternal serum (15, 2.1, and 0.24 ng/ml, respectively) than in cord serum (6.5, 1.7, and 0.20 ng/ml, respectively). PFC levels were among the highest in women originating from the Nordic countries and the lowest in women from the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Multiparous women had lower serum PFOA levels (1.7 ng/ml) than primiparous women (2.4 ng/ml). Maternal age, body mass index, cotinine levels, and whether women carried male or female fetuses did not affect serum PFC concentrations. Umbilical cord serum PFC concentrations showed roughly similar patterns as the maternal except for the gestational age where PFC levels increased with advancing gestational age. PFOS levels increased during the study period in native Swedish women. In summary, PFOS levels tend to increase while PFOA and PFNA levels were unchanged between 1978 and 2001 in our study population. Our results demonstrate that maternal country of origin, parity, and gestational age might be associated with PFC exposure.     

Scale and sustainability of marine bioprospecting for pharmaceuticals

Collecting marine organisms for the discovery and development of pharmaceuticals has been perceived variously as sustaining and threatening conservation. Our initial expectations that marine bioprospecting might pose conservation challenges were largely not confirmed. Thousands of marine species have been collected for initial assessment, but usually only in very small amounts. Very few compounds are sufficiently promising to provoke re-collections, where volumes can be much larger. This is where conservation concerns may arise, particularly if the organism is rare, has a restricted distribution, or is targeted in one narrow area. However, industry generally seeks to avoid dependency on small populations, for economic as well as ecological reasons. Alternative supply strategies to wild capture include synthesis and culture. Mandatory collection protocols and environmental impact (stock) assessments are useful routes for management to achieve sustainable use where extraction is desirable. In general, the scanty information available suggests that marine bioprospecting for pharmaceuticals may have minimal impacts on the environment, particularly compared with those created by other pressures.     

Use of toxicity identification evaluations to determine the pesticide mitigation effectiveness of on-farm vegetated treatment systems

Evidence of ecological impacts from pesticide runoff has prompted installation of vegetated treatment systems (VTS) along the central coast of California, USA. During five surveys of two on-farm VTS ponds, 88% of inlet and outlet water samples were toxic to Ceriodaphnia dubia. Toxicity identification evaluations (TIEs) indicated water toxicity was caused by diazinon at VTS-1, and chlorpyrifos at VTS-2. Diazinon levels in VTS-1 were variable, but high pulse inflow concentrations were reduced through dilution. At VTS-2, chlorpyrifos concentrations averaged 52% lower at the VTS outlet than at the inlet. Water concentrations of most other pesticides averaged 20-90% lower at VTS outlets. All VTS sediment samples were toxic to amphipods (Hyalella azteca). Sediment TIEs indicated toxicity was caused by cypermethrin and lambda-cyhalothrin at VTS-1, and chlorpyrifos and permethrin at VTS-2. As with water, sediment concentrations were lower at VTS outlets, indicating substantial reductions in farm runoff pesticide concentrations.     

Predictive effects of occupational and marital stress on the mental health of a male workforce

This study examined the predictive contribution of occupational and marital stress to the development of symptomatolgoy, affective disorder, and alcohol-related problems in a sample of 325 male power plant employees interviewed at baseline and one-year follow up. After controlling for known clinical and social risk factors, we found statistically significant predictive effects of job demands on affective disorder and job decision latitude on alcohol problems. In addition, the specific combination of high job demands with low decision latitude was important in predicting the occurrence of alcohol problems. Marital stress was not predictive of poorer mental health. The analyses provided only minimal support for a stress-buffering rote of social support.     

Spatial Relationships Between Water Quality and Pesticide Application Rates in Agricultural Watersheds

Pesticide applications to agricultural lands in California, USA, are reported to a central data base, while data on water and sediment quality are collected by a number of monitoring programs. Data from both sources are geo-referenced, allowing spatial analysis of relationships between pesticide application rates and the chemical and biological condition of water bodies. This study collected data from 12 watersheds, selected to represent a range of pesticide usage. Water quality parameters were measured during six surveys of stream sites receiving runoff from the selected watershed areas. This study had three objectives: to evaluate the usefulness of pesticide application data in selecting regional monitoring sites, to provide information for generating and testing hypotheses about pesticide fate and effects, and to determine whether in-stream nitrate concentration was a useful surrogate indicator for regional monitoring of toxic substances. Significant correlations were observed between pesticide application rates and in-stream pesticide concentrations (p < 0.05) and toxicity (p < 0.10). In-stream nitrate concentrations were not significantly correlated with either the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.30). Neither total watershed area nor the area in which pesticide usage was reported correlated significantly with the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.14). In-stream pesticide concentrations and effects were more closely related to the intensity of pesticide use than to the area under cultivation.