Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Combined influence of food level and inoculation density on competition between <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anuraeopsis fissa</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus patulus</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus macracanthus</Emphasis> (Rotifera: Brachionidae)

We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 ⁶) and high food levels (1.5 × 10⁶ cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390. The article was submitted by the authors in English.     

Preliminary assessment of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the Scottish aquatic environment, including the Firth of Clyde

This paper presents preliminary data on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the Scottish aquatic environment. Sediment and biota (fish liver, fish muscle and mussels) from a number of locations around Scotland were analysed for PBDEs with samples being from both remote and from potentially contaminated areas such as the former sewage sludge dump site at Garroch Head in the Clyde. PBDEs were measured in both cultivated, rope grown mussels and wild mussels collected from 5 sites around Scotland in 2006. Total PBDE concentrations (sum of tri- to hepta-BDEs) ranged from 相似文献   

“Bats,snakes and spiders,Oh my!” How aesthetic and negativistic attitudes,and other concepts predict support for species protection

This research investigates whether species are perceived differently based on aesthetic and negativistic attitudes, and whether these and other attitudes, naturalistic activities, and gender predict support for the protection of threatened species. 228 undergraduate students completed a survey in which they rated pictures of 10 endangered species on aesthetic and negativistic attitudes, and support for protection. Findings showed that the two-striped garter snake, Ozark big-eared bat, and dolloff cave spider were conceptualized differently than other species, which may be the result of “irrational” fears linked to animal phobias, culture, and emotional reactions to pictures. The regression results support the common belief that aesthetics is an important determinant in perceptions of endangered species and that the importance of negativistic attitudes may be waning. Moralistic worldviews and attitudes toward landowner rights and the Endangered Species Act were significantly related to support for governmental protection of species. Surprisingly, naturalistic activities and gender were not significantly associated with support for governmental protection of species. In general, the results were consistent across both models. However, the amount of variance explained by aesthetic and negativistic attitudes was 23 percent higher in the other species models than in the bat, snake, and spider models.     

Assessment of the natural-cultural resources in Çanakkale for nature-based tourism

While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined.     

A synchronized amphibian metamorphosis assay as an improved tool to detect thyroid hormone disturbance by endocrine disruptors and apolar sediment extracts

Amphibian metamorphosis assays are used to evaluate potential effects of endocrine disrupting compounds on the thyroid hormone axis. In this study, Xenopus laevis tadpoles are kept in a solution of 0.2% thiourea (TU) to arrest and synchronise them in their development. The advantage of this synchronized amphibian metamorphosis assays is that synchronised tadpoles are available at any time to start metamorphosis experiments, and experimental groups are much more homogenous at the start of experimental exposure compared with groups selected from an untreated pool of animals. The water volume per animal was kept constant throughout the experimental period to overcome the influence of declining numbers of animals per aquarium due to metamorphosis and mortality on the density dependent development of the remaining tadpoles. Clophen A50 (a technical PCB mixture), the single congener 3,3',4,4'-tetrachlorobiphenyl (PCB 77) and apolar sediment extracts that were previously tested positive in the T-Screen, an in vitro proliferation assay for thyroid hormone disruption, were tested in the Synchronized Amphibian Metamorphosis Assay. Endpoints studied were mortality, malformations, body weight, and percentage of metamorphosed froglets at the end of the 60-day experimental period, percentage of tadpoles in different developmental stages, and developmental stage-dependent awarded penalty points. Dietary exposure to Clophen A50 (0.2-50mg/kg food) resulted in a significant increased percentage of tadpoles that did not pass metamorphosis at concentrations higher than 2mg/kg food. Time until metamorphosis in those animals that were able to metamorphose after the 60-days experimental period was significantly decreased. Dietary exposure to PCB 77, a congener that can be readily metabolised, did not result in significant effects in any exposure group (2-500 microg/kg food). Apolar sediment extracts from two of the three sites that are contaminated with a wide variety of chemicals significantly decreased the percentage of metamorphosed animals and significantly increased the number of tadpoles that remained in early and late metamorphic stages. These effects already occurred when the extracts where diluted more than 1000 times (on an organic carbon base) compared to environmental concentrations. The rank of potency was comparable to results obtained with the T-screen. This suggests the presence of thyroid hormone disrupting compounds in the aquatic environment and possible effects of such compounds on animal development in the wild.     

Complexing capacity of natural waters carrying a great amount of suspended matter

The cadmium binding properties of waters of the superior section of the Rio de la Plata estuarine were determined over a three-year period. Samples were collected at different hydrodynamic conditions. The complexing capacity was determined by square wave anodic stripping voltammetry (SWASV). Titration curve data were analyzed using a multivariable regression. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) was identified by XR diffraction and FTIR. These analyses showed that SPM principal components are clays (illite, montmorillonite and chlorite). The study was applied to the untreated, filtered and centrifuged fractions of each sample at the pH of the natural waters and at pH 1. The results show that the contribution of dissolved organic matter to the complexing capacity is negligible when compared with SPM. At natural pH, the complexing capacity of filtered and untreated fractions can be described by considering two kinds of binding sites. The associated conditional binding constants are independent of the concentration of suspended matter. Their average logarithms are ca. 6.5 and ca. 4.4. The total concentration of binding sites (S(T)) is in microM range, which is about three orders of magnitude higher than that reported for most of the studied estuaries. This difference is explained on the basis of the great amount of SPM. Hydrodynamic conditions produce variations in the concentration and composition of the SPM. At pH 1 samples still exhibit an important complexing capacity with only one binding site with log K(cond) ca. 5.4. These differences could be attributed to superficial modifications that take place at very low pH.