FLOOD STAGE FORECASTING WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES1

ABSTRACT: Machine learning techniques are finding more and more applications in the field of forecasting. A novel regression technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the statistical learning theory is explored in this study. SVM is based on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization as opposed to the principle of Empirical Risk Minimization espoused by conventional regression techniques. The flood data at Dhaka, Bangladesh, are used in this study to demonstrate the forecasting capabilities of SVM. The result is compared with that of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model for one‐lead day to seven‐lead day forecasting. The improvements in maximum predicted water level errors by SVM over ANN for four‐lead day to seven‐lead day are 9.6 cm, 22.6 cm, 4.9 cm and 15.7 cm, respectively. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of SVM is at least as good as and in some cases (particularly at higher lead days) actually better than that of ANN, yet it offers advantages over many of the limitations of ANN, for example in arriving at ANN's optimal network architecture and choosing useful training set. Thus, SVM appears to be a very promising prediction tool.     

A LARGE ELECTRONIC WEIGHING LYSIMETER SYSTEM: DESIGN AND INSTALLATION1

ABSTRACT: To measure crop evapotranspiration, a large double tank, electronic weighting lysimeter system was designed and installed at the Shahid Bahonar University farm, Kerman, Iran. The system was installed in a 50 m² underground building. It includes two tanks of 3.00 m in diameter and 1.75 m deep. The weighing mechanism for each tank is a set of three compression strain gage load cells, which are fixed on 1.20 m height column above the floor. According to the specification of the load cells, the maximum possible weighing error may be about 0.01 percent of total mass, which is equivalent to 0.28 mm of water, but the measured error was equal to 1 kg mass, which is equivalent to 0.14 mm of water. The load cell data from each tank and the on‐site environmental data (temperature, humidity, and wind velocity and direction) are automatically recorded and saved in a personal computer hard disk for further use and analysis.     

Tourist Support for Marine Protection in Nha Trang,Viet Nam

Environmental planners often propose tourism as a means of financing programmes to protect significant environmental areas. Surveys of tourists can provide useful information about the significance of environmental problems, trade-offs among policy objectives, willingness to pay (WTP) for protection programmes and preferences for different payment mechanisms. In Khanh Hoa Province, the provincial People's Committee, the Ministry of Fisheries and the World Conservation Union are working to implement Viet Nam's first marine protected area (MPA) in Nha Trang Bay. This paper reports the results of a survey of local and other Vietnamese and foreign tourists to islands that will be included in the MPA. The majority of respondents thought rubbish on the beaches, water pollution and vendors on beaches were problems and that the MPA was a good idea. Foreign tourists were significantly more likely to perceive environmental problems than were Vietnamese tourists, and persons who agreed there were environmental problems were significantly more likely to support the concept of an MPA, despite the potential for possible economic effects with distributive consequences. WTP for protection was modest and positively correlated with education and income. Although foreign tourists were on average willing to pay more, a larger proportion of Vietnamese tourists were willing to pay some amount to support the MPA. Analyses indicate that changes in income and education expected with economic development will increase both awareness of problems and WTP for protection. The results of this analysis are both encouraging and cautionary. The need for an MPA is clearly recognized by most tourists, and most tourists are willing to pay small fees to support the MPA. Given that education has significant impacts on both perceptions of problems and WTP, educational programmes may be an effective strategy for managing the competing objectives of protection and use.     

Recovery of temperate-stream fish communities from disturbance: A review of case studies and synthesis of theory

To evaluate the relative effect of autecologic factors, site-specific factors, disturbance characteristics, and community structure on the recovery of temperate-stream fish communities, we reviewed case histories for 49 sites and recorded data on 411 recovery end points. Most data were derived from studies of low-gradient third- or fourth-order temperate streams located in forested or agricultural watersheds. Species composition, species richness, and total density all recovered within one year for over 70% of systems studied. Lotic fish communities were not resilient to press disturbances (e.g., mining, logging, channelization) in the absence of mitigation efforts (recovery time >5 to >52 yr) and in these cases recovery was limited by habitat quality. Following pulse disturbances, autecological factors, site-specific factors, and disturbance-specific factors all affected rates of recovery. Centrarchids and minnows were most resilient to disturbance, while salmonid populations were least resilient of all families considered. Species within rock-substrate/nest-spawning guilds required significantly longer time periods to either recolonize or reestablish predisturbance population densities than did species within other reproductive guilds. Recovery was enhanced by the presence of refugia but was delayed by barriers to migration, especially when source populations for recolonization were relatively distant. Median population recovery times for systems in which disturbances occurred during or immediately prior to spawning were significantly less than median recovery times for systems in which disturbances occurred immediately after spawning. There was little evidence for the influence of biotic interactions on recovery rates.     

Management plan for an alkali sink and its endangered plantCordylanthus palmatus

Cordylanthus palmatus is a hemiparasitic annual of the family Scrophulareacae. It is on both the federal and state lists of endangered species. Only four widely separated populations remain, all of them in alkali sinks, where the plant thrives in saline-sodic soils. The largest population is at Springtown, Alameda County, California. This article reports on efforts to develop a management plan for both the plant and the alkali sink ecosystem. The plan is based on: (1) characterization of hydrology, soils and geomorphology of the site; (2) characterization of the land use impacts to the site; (3) analysis of plant distribution in relation to gradients of elevation and soil chemistry; (4) studies on water potential and water stress inCordylanthus palmatus and associated species. On the basis of this plan, both the State of California and private groups are cooperating to create, restore, and manage a preserve in the Springtown Alkali Sink.     

Emotional intelligence and individual performance: evidence of direct and moderated effects

We examined the direct and moderated effects of an ability‐based measure of emotional intelligence (MSCEIT© V2.0) on individual performance in a sample of business undergraduates. Controlling for general mental ability and personality, emotional intelligence explained unique incremental variance in performance ratings on only one of two measures of interpersonal effectiveness (public speaking effectiveness). However, the interaction of emotional intelligence with conscientiousness explained unique incremental variance both in public speaking and group behavior effectiveness, as well as academic performance (cumulative GPA). We conclude that the effects of emotional intelligence on performance are more indirect than direct in nature. Individuals must not only have emotional intelligence, but also must be motivated to use it. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological Connectivity Between Headwater Streams and Downstream Waters: How Science Can Inform Policy1

Abstract: In January 2001, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers exceeded its statutory authority by asserting Clean Water Act (CWA) jurisdiction over non‐navigable, isolated, intrastate waters based solely on their use by migratory birds. The Supreme Court’s majority opinion addressed broader issues of CWA jurisdiction by implying that the CWA intended some “connection” to navigability and that isolated waters need a “significant nexus” to navigable waters to be jurisdictional. Subsequent to this decision (SWANCC), there have been many lawsuits challenging CWA jurisdiction, many of which are focused on headwater, intermittent, and ephemeral streams. To inform the legal and policy debate surrounding this issue, we present information on the geographic distribution of headwater streams and intermittent and ephemeral streams throughout the U.S., summarize major findings from the scientific literature in considering hydrological connectivity between headwater streams and downstream waters, and relate the scientific information presented to policy issues surrounding the scope of waters protected under the CWA. Headwater streams comprise approximately 53% (2,900,000 km) of the total stream length in the U.S., excluding Alaska, and intermittent and ephemeral streams comprise approximately 59% (3,200,000 km) of the total stream length and approximately 50% (1,460,000 km) of the headwater stream length in the U.S., excluding Alaska. Hillslopes, headwater streams, and downstream waters are best described as individual elements of integrated hydrological systems. Hydrological connectivity allows for the exchange of mass, momentum, energy, and organisms longitudinally, laterally, vertically, and temporally between headwater streams and downstream waters. Via hydrological connectivity, headwater, intermittent and ephemeral streams cumulatively contribute to the functional integrity of downstream waters; hydrologically and ecologically, they are a part of the tributary system. As this debate continues, scientific input from multiple fields will be important for policymaking at the federal, state, and local levels and to inform water resource management regardless of the level at which those decisions are being made. Strengthening the interface between science, policy, and public participation is critical if we are going to achieve effective water resource management.     

Room to move? Threatened shorebird habitat in the path of sea level rise—dynamic beaches, multiple users, and mixed ownership: a case study from Rhode Island, USA

Accelerated sea level rise (slr) is expected to transform vulnerable Atlantic coastal habitats in the United States during this century. Low-elevation sandy beaches, important nesting habitat for the continued recovery of the federally threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) in Rhode Island, are especially vulnerable. These beaches, under a mix of private and public ownership, exist in a heterogeneous landscape of dunes, rocky headlands, salt ponds, and heavily developed areas. Understanding the extent to which piping plover nesting beaches can retreat landward under projected slr is important for prioritizing future conservation actions across multiple jurisdictions. This research examines habitat change in response to slr (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m) under stationary and migration beach responses and whether development blocks habitat migration for five productive piping plover nesting beaches. We found that under the stationary habitat model, all beaches lose area under all slr scenarios. For the habitat migration model, future habitat availability differs by beach depending on elevation, landward topography, and presence of development. However, across the majority of beach area, piping plover habitat will be able to migrate landward if unconstrained by future development. A coalition of public and private stakeholders already supports management efforts to help ensure plover population recovery in the area. With emerging habitat change prediction tools, these stakeholders and other partners can engage in innovative, local-level planning needed to protect wildlife habitat and commercial, residential, and infrastructure assets from sea level rise.     

Possible Extinction Vortex for a Population of Iberian Lynx on the Verge of Extirpation

Abstract: Theory suggests that demographic and genetic traits deteriorate (i.e., fitness and genetic diversity decrease) when populations become small, and that such deterioration could precipitate positive feedback loops called extinction vortices. We examined whether demographic attributes and genetic traits have changed over time in one of the 2 remaining small populations of the highly endangered Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) in Doñana, Spain. From 1983 to 2008, we recorded nontraumatic mortality rates, litter size, offspring survival, age at territory acquisition, and sex ratio. We combined these demographic attributes with measures of inbreeding and genetic diversity at neutral loci (microsatellites) and genes subjected to selection (major histocompatibility complex). Data on demographic traits were obtained through capture and radio tracking, checking dens during breeding, track surveys, and camera trapping. For genetic analyses, we obtained blood or tissue samples from captured or necropsied individuals or from museum specimens. Over time a female‐biased sex ratio developed, age of territory acquisition decreased, mean litter size decreased, and rates of nontraumatic mortality increased, but there were no significant changes in overall mortality rates, standardized individual heterozygosity declined steadily, and allelic diversity of exon 2 of class II major histocompatibility complex DRB genes remained constant (2 allelic variants present in all individuals analyzed). Changes in sex ratio and age of territory acquisition may have resulted from demographic stochasticity, whereas changes in litter size and nontraumatic mortality may be related to observed increases in inbreeding. Concomitant deterioration of both demographic attributes and genetic traits is consistent with an extinction vortex. The co‐occurrence, with or without interaction, of demographic and genetic deterioration may explain the lack of success of conservation efforts with the Doñana population of Iberian lynx.