Integrated assessment of future CAP policies: land use changes,spatial patterns and targeting

The recent and upcoming reforms of the Common Agricultural Policies (CAPs) aim at strengthening the multifunctional role of agriculture, acknowledging the differences in economic, environmental and social potentials within European regions. This paper presents results from an integrated assessment of existing and future policies within the framework set up in the FP6 EU project MEA-Scope. Spatial explicit procedures allow for the MEA-Scope modelling tools to provide information related to regional, environmental and socio-economics settings. The impact of different policy scenarios on structural change, land abandonment and cropping pattern of typical farms has been assessed based on linked agent-based (ABM) and Linear Programming (LP) models at regional and farm scale for two study areas. For the German case study area Ostprignitz-Ruppin (OPR), the issue of policy targeting has been addressed by relating non-commodity outputs (NCOs) to soil quality and protection status. For the Italian case study area (Mugello), changes in landscape patterns in terms of increased fragmentation or homogeneity as affected by changes in agricultural intensity have been analysed using semivariance analysis. The spatial explicit approach highlighted the relevance of case study research in order to identifying response structures and explaining policy implementation patterns.     

Growth dynamics of Saccharina latissima (Laminariales,Phaeophyceae) in Aarhus Bay,Denmark, and along the species’ distribution range

Growth dynamics of Saccharina latissima in a Danish embayment (56°03.793N, 10°16.148E) were investigated through an annual cycle (March 1999–March 2000) and related to patterns found in previous studies covering the distribution range of the species. The kelps exhibited meristematic growth as well as distal tissue loss all year around. Elongation rate peaked in spring (March–May, 0.75 cm day^?1), whereas maximum biomass growth occurred in May–July at higher insolation. S. latissima accumulated nitrogen (N) in November–March, when ambient N levels were high and the fast growth in March–July was followed by a depletion of these reserves. Light regimes and seasonal fluctuations of nutrients were, thus, major factors explaining the seasonal growth pattern of S. latissima in this temperate bay. Differences in light and exposure along depth gradients affected the growth, loss and storage product dynamics. High losses of N and carbon (C) through summer abscission of distal tissue question the efficiency of translocation, especially at shallower depths, where losses are accelerated by, e.g., high temperature. A large-scale comparison further highlighted that warming advanced the timing, increased the level of peak growth and also seemed to expand the growth period. Growth rates of the studied Danish population fell in the low end of the range for similar latitudes and temperatures, probably due to sub-optimal salinities (avg. 23.3 psu) in combination with periodically high summer temperatures (max. 21.1 °C).     

Model reactions of chromium compounds with mammalian and bacterial cells†

Chromate uptake, reduction, cytotoxicity and mutagenicity were studied with human red blood cells, Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells and/or Salmonella typhimurium mutant cells. All cell types rapidly took up chromates whereas chromium(III) salts were excluded under the experimental conditions. Red blood cells reduced and accumulated chromium from chromate. At concentrations above 0.1 mM, chromate inactivated the red cell chromate carrier. Chromate above 0.01 mM inhibited CHO cell proliferation irrespective of the cations present. Chromate and two chromium(III) complexes were mutagenic with Salmonella mutants in the Ames’ assay. A model for chromate metabolism and genotoxicity is proposed.     

Fossil bog soils (‘<Emphasis Type="Italic">dwog</Emphasis> horizons’) and their relation to Holocene coastal changes in the Jade Weser region,southern North Sea,Germany

After the deceleration of the postglacial marine transgression, the German North Sea coast was subject to deposition of a complex pattern of subtidal to terrestrial facies. This study aims at reconstructing these facies changes in the ‘Land Wursten’ region (Lower Saxony) by focussing on so-called dwog horizons (incipient soil horizons of the pre-engineered salt marshes). We explore their implications for relative sea-level reconstructions and their indication for early settlement activities. Archive drilling data (1960, provided by the ‘Landesamt für Bergbau, Energie und Geologie’) were analysed to create five high-resolution stratigraphic cross sections. Three new drilling records were subjected to sedimentological and microfaunal investigations and interpreted to verify and calibrate the archive data. Two dwog horizons were found and ¹⁴C-AMS dated. We found basal salt marsh deposits inundated by a high-energy event and covered by tidal flat sediments. The thick tidal flat unit is again overlain by salt marsh deposits indicating the transition from a shallow marine to a terrestrial environment where dwogs were developed and covered by episodic marine incursions. The ages of the dwogs (1128–969 cal BC; cal AD 1426–1467) do not correlate with known layers of adjacent settlement sites and are critically discussed. However, we show that they correlate with phases of stagnant regional relative sea level (RSL) and can be used as RSL indicators. The combined archive and modern data provide valuable information for the RSL reconstruction and palaeoenvironmental changes. However, further research is recommended to accomplish more detailed information about coastal response during the Holocene sea-level changes and implications for settlement dynamics.     

Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools—A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and analyses how these tools have responded to a number of challenges for integrated assessment modelling as reported in the international literature. Significant progress has been made with regard to modelling linkages whereas other challenges, particularly those related to issues of scale and uncertainty management, require further efforts. It is also analysed which CAP instruments are represented and what kinds of effects can be analysed at different scales. Market instruments and direct payments are comparatively well represented, while the ability to model rural development measures is mostly beyond the scope of these tools. Because each tool has found a different solution for coping with the common challenges of integrated assessment modelling, the choice of one of the tools for a particular application depends strongly on the policy questions being asked. The SIAT provides the big picture via its ability to represent broad changes in policy instruments with EU-wide cross-sector impacts. The most comprehensive analysis of agricultural policy instruments can be obtained with SEAMLESS-IF. The MEA-Scope tool complements the other two approaches with detailed regional profiles.     

Modeling the surface–atmosphere exchange of ammonia

New parameterizations for surface–atmosphere exchange of ammonia are presented for application in atmospheric transport models and compared with parameterizations of the literature. The new parameterizations are based on a combination of the results of three years of ammonia flux measurements over a grassland canopy (dominated by Lolium perenne and Poa trivialis) near Wageningen, the Netherlands and existing parameterizations from literature. First, a model for the surface–atmosphere exchange of ammonia that includes the concentration at the external leaf surface is derived and validated. Second, a parameterization for the stomatal compensation point (expressed as Γ_s, the ratio of [NH₄⁺]/[H⁺] in the leaf apoplast) that accounts for the observed seasonal variation is derived from the measurements. The new, temperature-dependent Γ_s describes the observed seasonal behavior very well. It is noted, however, that senescence of plants and field management practices will also influence the seasonal variation of Γ_s on a shorter timescale. Finally, a relation that links Γ_s to the atmospheric pollution level of the location through the ‘long-term’ NH₃ concentration in the air is proposed.     

Limitations of an optimum sustainable population or potential biological removal approach for conserving marine mammals: Pacific walrus case study

Decision rules are the agreed-upon points at which specific management interventions are initiated. For marine mammal management under the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), decision rules are usually based on either a numeric population or biological-removal approach. However, for walrus and other ice-associated pinnipeds, the inability to reliably assess population numbers or biological removals highlights a significant gap in the MMPA, particularly when the Arctic environment is rapidly changing. We describe the MMPA's ecosystem-based management goals, and why managers have bypassed these goals in favor of an approach that depends upon numerical population assessment. We then revisit the statute's primary goals in light of current knowledge about the Pacific walrus ecosystem and new developments in environmental governance. We argue that to monitor and respond to changes in the walrus ecosystem, decision rules should be based on scientific criteria that depend less on the currently-impractical goal of accurately enumerating population size and trends, or removals from that population. Rather, managers should base decisions on ecological needs and observed ecological changes. To implement this approach would require an amendment to the MMPA that supports filling the gap in management with achievable decision rules. Alternatively, walrus and other ice-associated pinnipeds will remain largely unmanaged during a period of profound environmental change.     

Effects of Fireplace Use on Forest Vegetation and Amount of Woody Debris in Suburban Forests in Northwestern Switzerland

Urban forests are popular recreation areas in Europe. Several of these temperate broad-leaved forests also have a high conservation value due to sustainable management over many centuries. Recreational activities, particularly the use of fireplaces, can cause extensive damage to soil, ground vegetation, shrubs, and trees. Firewood collection depletes woody debris, leading to a loss of habitat for specialized organisms. We examined the effects of fireplace use on forest vegetation and the amount of woody debris by comparing disturbed and control plots in suburban forests in northwestern Switzerland. At frequently used fireplaces, we found reduced species densities in the ground vegetation and shrub layer and changes in plant species composition due to human trampling within an area of 150–200 m². Picnicking and grilling also reduced the height and changed the age structure of shrubs and young trees. The amount of woody debris was lower in disturbed plots than in control plots. Pieces of wood with a diameter of 0.6–7.6 cm were preferentially collected by fireplace users. The reduction in woody debris volume extended up to a distance of 16 m from the fire ring, covering an area of 800 m² at each picnic site. In order to preserve the ecological integrity of urban forests and to maintain their attractiveness as important recreation areas, we suggest depositing logging residues to be used as firewood and to restrict visitor movements near picnic sites.     

Numerical analysis of water and solute transport in variably-saturated fractured clayey till

This study numerically investigates the influence of initial water content and rain intensities on the preferential migration of two fluorescent tracers, Acid Yellow 7 (AY7) and Sulforhodamine B (SB), through variably-saturated fractured clayey till. The simulations are based on the numerical model HydroGeoSphere, which solves 3D variably-saturated flow and solute transport in discretely-fractured porous media. Using detailed knowledge of the matrix, fracture, and biopore properties, the numerical model is calibrated and validated against experimental high-resolution tracer images/data collected under dry and wet soil conditions and for three different rain events. The model could reproduce reasonably well the observed preferential migration of AY7 and SB through the fractured till, although it did not capture the exact depth of migration and the negligible impact of the dead-end biopores in a near-saturated matrix. A sensitivity analysis suggests fast flow mechanisms and dynamic surface coating in the biopores, and the presence of a plough pan in the till.