INCORPORATING NATURAL VARIABILITY,UNCERTAINTY, AND RISK INTO WATER QUALITY EVALUATIONS USING DURATION CURVES1

ABSTRACT: Quantifying natural variability, uncertainty, and risk with minimal data is one of the greatest challenges facing those engaged in water quality evaluations, such as development of total maximum daily loads (TMDL), because of regulatory, natural, and analytical constraints. Quantification of uncertainty and variability in natural systems is illustrated using duration curves (DCs), plots that illustrate the percent of time that a particular flow rate (FDC), concentration (CDC), or load rate (LDC; “TMDL”) is exceeded, and are constructed using simple derived distributions. Duration curves require different construction methods and interpretations, depending on whether there is a statistically significant correlation between concentration (C) and flow (Q), and on the sign of the C‐Q regression slope (positive or negative). Flow DCs computed from annual runoff data vary compared with an FDC developed using all data. Percent exceedance for DCs can correspond to risk; however, DCs are not composed of independent quantities. Confidence intervals of data about a regression line can be used to develop confidence limits for the CDC and LDC. An alternate expression to a fixed TMDL is suggested as the risk of a load rate being exceeded and lying between confidence limits. Averages over partial ranges of DCs are also suggested as an alternative expression of TMDLs. DCs can be used to quantify watershed response in terms of changes in exceedances, concentrations, and load rates after implementation of best management practices.     

Thermal treatment and non-thermal technologies for remediation of manufactured gas plant sites

More than 1500 manufactured gas plant (MGP) sites exist throughout the U.S. Many are contaminated with coal tar from coal-fueled gas works which produced ‘town gas’ from the mid-1800s through the 1950s.^1,2 Virtually all old U.S. cities have such sites. Most are in downtown areas as they were installed for central distribution of manufactured gas. While a few sites are CERCLA/Superfund, most are not. However, the contaminants and methods used for remediation are similar to those used for Superfund clean-ups of coal tar contamination from wood-treating and coke oven facilities. Clean-up of sites is triggered by regulatory pressure, property transfers and re-development as well as releases to the environment — in particular, via groundwater migration. Due to utility de-regulation, site clean-ups may also be triggered by sale of a utility or of a specific utility site to other utilities. Utilities have used two approaches in dealing with their MGP sites. The first is ‘do nothing and hope for the best’. History suggests that, sooner or later, these sites become a bigger problem via a release, citizen lawsuit or regulatory/public service commission intervention. The second, far better approach is to define the problem now and make plans for waste treatment or immobilization. This paper describes recent experience with a high capacity/low cost thermal desorption process for this waste and reviews non-thermal technology, such as bio-treatment, capping, recycling, and dig and haul. Cost data is provided for all technologies, and a case study for thermal treatment is also presented.     

Transformational leadership and organizational commitment: mediating role of psychological empowerment and moderating role of structural distance

Using a sample of 520 staff nurses employed by a large public hospital in Singapore, we examined whether psychological empowerment mediated the effects of transformational leadership on followers' organizational commitment. We also examined how structural distance (direct and indirect leadership) between leaders and followers moderated the relationship between transformational leadership and organizational commitment. Results from HLM analyses showed that psychological empowerment mediated the relationship between transformational leadership and organizational commitment. Similarly, structural distance between the leader and follower moderated the relationship between transformational leadership and organizational commitment. Implications for research and practice of our findings are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Explaining the Performance of Mature Municipal Solid Waste Recycling Programs

This paper assesses the contextual, programmatic and decision-making factors that affect the performance of mature municipal solid waste recycling programs. Tobit models were prepared for cities with populations of less than or more than 25?000 to facilitate analysis of recycling performance. Recycling participation rates were found to be higher among cities in both groups that offered more convenient recycling programs and whose residents had a higher mean household income. The larger cities that achieved higher participation rates employed a decision-making process known as ‘collaborative learning’, imposed sanctions on improper sorting recyclable materials, and had a larger non-minority population. Among smaller cities, higher participation was attained by using variable fee pricing for solid waste collection and by mandating household participation. The study findings suggest that future research should focus on improved ways to characterize and measure the decision-making processes used to make policy changes in order to facilitate analysis of the causal and temporal relationships between decision-making processes and program performance.     

BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SELECTED CONSERVATION PRACTICES ON SOIL EROSION AND FRESHWATER FISHERIES1

ABSTRACT: Farmers can generate environmental benefits (improved water quality and fisheries and wildlife habitat), but they may not be able to quantify them. Furthermore, farmers may reduce their incomes from managing lands to produce these positive externalities but receive little monetary compensation in return. This study simulated the relationship between agricultural practices, water quality, fish responses to suspended sediment and farm income within two small watersheds, one of a cool water stream and one of a warm water stream. Using the Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport (ADAPT) model, this study related best management practices (BMPs) to calculated instream suspended sediment concentrations by estimating sediment delivery, runoff, base flow, and streambank erosion to quantify the effects of suspended sediment exposure on fish communities. By implementing selected BMPs in each watershed, annual net farm income declined $18,000 to $28,000 (1 to 3 percent) from previous levels. “Lethal” fish events from suspended sediments in the cool water watershed decreased by 60 percent as conservation tillage and riparian buffers increased. Despite reducing suspended sediments by 25 percent, BMPs in the warm water watershed did not reduce the negative response of the fisheries. Differences in responses (physical and biological) between watersheds highlight potential gains in economic efficiency by targeting BMPs or by offering performance based “green payments.”     

Trampling Impacts on Thermotolerant Vegetation of Geothermal Areas in New Zealand

Geothermal features such as geysers, mud pools, sinter terraces, fumaroles, hot springs, and steaming ground are natural attractions often visited by tourists. Visitation rates for such areas in the Taupo Volcanic Zone of New Zealand are in the order of hundreds of thousands annually. These areas are also habitat for rare and specialized plant and microbial communities that live in the steam-heated soils of unusual chemical composition. We evaluated historical and current trampling impacts of tourists on the thermotolerant vegetation of the Waimangu and Waiotapu geothermal areas near Rotorua, and compared the results to experimental trampling at a third site (Taheke) not used by tourists. Historical tourism has removed vegetation and soil from around key features, and remaining subsoil is compacted into an impervious pavement on which vegetation recolonization is unlikely in the short term. Social tracks made by tourists were present at both tourist sites often leading them onto hotter soils than constructed tracks. Vegetation height and cover were lower on and adjacent to social tracks than further from them. Thermotolerant vegetation showed extremely low resistance to experimental trampling. This confirms and extends previous research that also shows that thallophytes and woody shrubs, life forms that dominate in thermotolerant vegetation, are vulnerable to trampling damage. Preservation of these vulnerable ecosystems must ensure that tourist traffic is confined to existing tracks or boardwalks, and active restoration of impacted sites may be warranted.     

Recovery of lotic macroinvertebrate communities from disturbance

Ecosystem disturbances produce changes in macrobenthic community structure (abundances, biomass, and production) that persist for a few weeks to many decades. Examples of disturbances with extremely long-term effects on benthic communities include contamination by persistent toxic agents, physical changes in habitats, and altered energy inputs. Stream size, retention, and local geomorphology may ameliorate the influence of disturbances on invertebrates. Disturbances can alter food webs and may select for favorable genotypes (e.g., insecticidal resistance). Introductions of pesticides into lotic ecosystems, which do not result in major physical changes within habitats, illustrate several factors that influence invertebrate recovery time from disturbance. These include: (1) magnitude of original contamination, toxicity, and extent of continued use; (2) spatial scale of the disturbance; (3) persistence of the pesticide; (4) timing of the contamination in relation to the life history stages of the organisms; (5) vagility of populations influenced by pesticides; and (6) position within the drainage network. The ability of macroinvertebrates to recolonize denuded stream habitats may vary greatly depending on regional life histories, dispersal abilities, and position within the stream network (e.g., headwaters vs larger rivers). Although downstream drift is the most frequently cited mechanism of invertebrate recolonization following disturbance in middle- and larger-order streams, evidence is presented that shows aerial recolonization to be potentially important in headwater streams. There is an apparent stochastic element operating for aerial recolonization, depending on the timing of disturbance and flight periods of various taxa. Available evidence indicates that recolonization of invertebrate taxa without an aerial adult stage requires longer periods of time than for those that possess winged, terrestrial adult stages (i.e., most insects). Innovative, manipulative experiments are needed in order to address recolonization mechanisms of animals inhabiting streams that differ in size, latitude, disturbance frequency and magnitude, as well as the potential influence of early colonists on successional sequences of species following disturbance.