Ecological-Economic Modeling for Biodiversity Management: Potential, Pitfalls, and Prospects

Abstract:  Ecologists and economists both use models to help develop strategies for biodiversity management. The practical use of disciplinary models, however, can be limited because ecological models tend not to address the socioeconomic dimension of biodiversity management, whereas economic models tend to neglect the ecological dimension. Given these shortcomings of disciplinary models, there is a necessity to combine ecological and economic knowledge into ecological-economic models. It is insufficient if scientists work separately in their own disciplines and combine their knowledge only when it comes to formulating management recommendations. Such an approach does not capture feedback loops between the ecological and the socioeconomic systems. Furthermore, each discipline poses the management problem in its own way and comes up with its own most appropriate solution. These disciplinary solutions, however, are likely to be so different that a combined solution considering aspects of both disciplines cannot be found. Preconditions for a successful model-based integration of ecology and economics include (1) an in-depth knowledge of the two disciplines, (2) the adequate identification and framing of the problem to be investigated, and (3) a common understanding between economists and ecologists of modeling and scale. To further advance ecological-economic modeling the development of common benchmarks, quality controls, and refereeing standards for ecological-economic models is desirable.     

Assessment of Effectiveness of Protection Strategies in Tanzania Based on a Decade of Survey Data for Large Herbivores

Abstract:  Considerable controversy surrounds the effectiveness of strictly protected areas that prohibit consumptive resource use. For Tanzania we compared temporal changes in densities of large herbivores among heavily protected national parks and game reserves, partially protected game-controlled areas, and areas with little or no protection. Comparisons based on surveys conducted in the late 1980s and early 1990s versus the late 1990s and early 2000s showed three consistent patterns across the country. First, significant declines in the densities of large herbivores between these two snapshots in time overwhelmingly outnumbered significant increases in all protection categories. Second, more species fared well (increased significantly or showed no significant change) in strictly protected national parks than in areas with partial or no protection and in heavily protected game reserves relative to areas with no protection. Third, significantly more species fared poorly (densities declined or were too low to detect a decline) than fared well in areas with partial or no protection. Our results show that although heavy protection was generally more effective in maintaining large herbivore populations than partial or no protection, continued long-term monitoring is needed in Tanzania to inform managers whether large herbivores are experiencing declining population trends even within heavily protected areas .     

Metropolitan Open-Space Protection with Uncertain Site Availability

Abstract:  Urban planners acquire open space to protect natural areas and provide public access to recreation opportunities. Because of limited budgets and dynamic land markets, acquisitions take place sequentially depending on available funds and sites. To address these planning features, we formulated a two-period site selection model with two objectives: maximize the expected number of species represented in protected sites and maximize the expected number of people with access to protected sites. These objectives were both maximized subject to an upper bound on area protected over two periods. The trade-off between species representation and public access was generated by the weighting method of multiobjective programming. Uncertainty was represented with a set of probabilistic scenarios of site availability in a linear-integer formulation. We used data for 27 rare species in 31 candidate sites in western Lake County, near the city of Chicago, to illustrate the model. Each trade-off curve had a concave shape in which species representation dropped at an increasing rate as public accessibility increased, with the trade-off being smaller at higher levels of the area budget. Several sites were included in optimal solutions regardless of objective function weights, and these core sites had high species richness and public access per unit area. The area protected in period one depended on current site availability and on the probabilities of sites being undeveloped and available in the second period. Although the numerical results are specific for our study, the methodology is general and applicable elsewhere.     

火山灰年代学与地层学研究简述

火山灰的研究作为探讨古气候和古环境的一种手段,近十年来引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。气候学和古环境学的研究表明,火山喷发可以导致某一区域内短期的气候变化或者对冰期产生强烈影响。同时,火山灰层的成因机制决定了其空间分布的等时性和广泛性,因此,火山灰的地层学特征和精确定年,具有重要的地层对比意义。目前,全球各地已经开展了许多火山灰年代学与地层学的研究。在中国,尤其是东北地区,虽然有着丰富的火山资源,但是火山灰年代学与地层学的研究工作依然比较匮乏,本文简要回顾了一下中国东北、欧洲、新西兰、日本、俄罗斯等地区的火山灰研究工作,旨在为以后的研究提供一定的参考资料。     

Conserving Slow-Growing, Long-Lived Tree Species: Input from the Demography of a Rare Understory Conifer, Taxus floridana

Abstract:  Although land preservation and promotion of successful regeneration are important conservation actions, their ability to increase population growth rates of slow-growing, long-lived trees is limited. We investigated the demography of Taxus floridana Nutt., a rare understory conifer, in three populations in different ravine forests spanning its entire geographic range along the Apalachicola River Bluffs in northern Florida (U.S.A.). We examined spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and projected population growth rates by using four years of data on the recruitment and survival of seedlings and established stems, and on diameter growth from cross-sections of dead stems. All populations experienced a roughly 10-fold increase in seedling recruitment in 1996 compared with other years. The fates of seedlings and stems between 8 and 16 mm differed among populations. The fates of stems in two other size classes (the 2- to 4-mm class and the 4- to 8-mm class) differed among both populations and years. Individual stems in all populations exhibited similarly slow growth rates. Stochastic matrix models projected declines in all populations. Stochastic matrix analysis revealed the high elasticity of a measure of stochastic population growth rate to perturbations in the stasis of large reproductive stems for all populations. Additional analyses also indicated that occasional episodes of high recruitment do not greatly affect population growth rates. Conservation efforts directed at long-lived, slow-growing rare plants like Taxus floridana should both protect established reproductive individuals and further enhance survival of individuals in other life-history stages, such as juveniles, that often do not appear to contribute greatly to population growth rates.     

Establishing Representative No-Take Areas in the Great Barrier Reef: Large-Scale Implementation of Theory on Marine Protected Areas

Abstract:  The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, an area almost the size of Japan, has a new network of no-take areas that significantly improves the protection of biodiversity. The new marine park zoning implements, in a quantitative manner, many of the theoretical design principles discussed in the literature. For example, the new network of no-take areas has at least 20% protection per "bioregion," minimum levels of protection for all known habitats and special or unique features, and minimum sizes for no-take areas of at least 10 or 20 km across at the smallest diameter. Overall, more than 33% of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park is now in no-take areas (previously 4.5%). The steps taken leading to this outcome were to clarify to the interested public why the existing level of protection was inadequate; detail the conservation objectives of establishing new no-take areas; work with relevant and independent experts to define, and contribute to, the best scientific process to deliver on the objectives; describe the biodiversity (e.g., map bioregions); define operational principles needed to achieve the objectives; invite community input on all of the above; gather and layer the data gathered in round-table discussions; report the degree of achievement of principles for various options of no-take areas; and determine how to address negative impacts. Some of the key success factors in this case have global relevance and include focusing initial communication on the problem to be addressed; applying the precautionary principle; using independent experts; facilitating input to decision making; conducting extensive and participatory consultation; having an existing marine park that encompassed much of the ecosystem; having legislative power under federal law; developing high-level support; ensuring agency priority and ownership; and being able to address the issue of displaced fishers.     

Ecology of Pacific Yew (Taxus brevifolia) in Western Oregon and Washington

Taxus brevifolia , a subcanopy tree or shrub in forests of the Pacific Northwest, has been harvested intensively in recent years. With management concerns as an impetus, we examined the distribution and population dynamics of Taxus based on data from the mountains of western Oregon and Washington. Surveys of natural forests, long-term studies of forest recovery following logging, and census data on marked trees in forest stands support the hypothesis that Taxus is a widespread but predominantly late-successional species. Sensitive to fire and slow to recover from disturbance on many sites, Taxus attains maximal basal area and adult stem density in old forests. Colonization of Taxus is often slow in potentially suitable habitats. Conservation of Taxus at the landscape level may require large, unmanaged reserves and maintenance of patches of old forest within managed forests. Long rotations (centuries) between harvest events will enhance the long-term viability of the species. Practices designed to accelerate the development of old-growth forest structure will not benefit Taxus and other species requiring long disturbance-free intervals for recovery.