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991.
Jorge A. Achcar Eliane R. Rodrigues Guadalupe Tzintzun 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2011,18(2):271-290
In this paper we make use of some stochastic volatility models to analyse the behaviour of a weekly ozone average measurements
series. The models considered here have been used previously in problems related to financial time series. Two models are
considered and their parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.
Both models are applied to the data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The selection
of the best model for that specific data set is performed using the Deviance Information Criterion and the Conditional Predictive
Ordinate method. 相似文献
992.
Modelling volatility of growth rate in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in a Bayesian approach 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Esmail Amiri 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2011,18(4):735-755
Atmospheric gases, such as carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide, and etc., create a natural greenhouse effect and
cause climate change. Therefore, modelling behavior of these gases could help policy makers to control greenhouse effects.
In a Bayesian framework, we analyse and model conditional variance of growth rate in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
(ACDC) using monthly data from a subset of the well known Mauna Loa atmosphere carbon dioxide record. The conditional variance
of ACDC monthly growth rate is modelled using the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH), generalized ARCH model
(GARCH) and a few variants of stochastic volatility (SV) models. Smooth transition ARCH and GARCH models are shown to be able
to capture the dynamics in the conditional variance in ACDC level growth rate and to improve the forecast performance of ACDC
growth rate. 相似文献
993.
This paper introduces a flexible skewed link function for modeling ordinal response data with covariates based on the generalized
extreme value (GEV) distribution. Commonly used probit, logit and complementary log-log links are prone to link misspecification
because of their fixed skewness. The GEV link is flexible in fitting the skewness in the response curve with a free shape
parameter. Using Bayesian methodology, it automatically detects the skewness in the response curve along with the model fitting.
The flexibility of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to an ecological survey data about the coverage of
Berberis thunbergii in New England. We employ the latent variable approach by Albert and Chib (J Am Stat Assoc 88:669–679, (1993) to develop
computational schemes. For model selection, we employ the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC). 相似文献
994.
Graphical models provide an important tool for facilitating communication between scientists, decision-makers, and statisticians—many
complicated ecological processes can be described in terms of “box-and-arrow” conceptual diagrams (e.g., Shipley in Cause
and correlation in biology: a user’s guide to path analysis, structural equations and causal inferences, Cambridge Universtiy
Press, Cambridge, 2000; Clark and Gelfand TRENDS in Ecology and Evolution 21:375–380, 2006). In particular, problems in landscape
ecology often involve modeling relationships among multiple physical and/or biological variables that may operate on differing
spatial scales (e.g., Rossi et al. in Ecol Monographs 62:277–314, 1992; Legendre et al. in Ecography 25:601–615, 2002; Overmars
et al. in Ecol Model 164:257–270, 2003; Brown and Spector in J Appl Ecol 45:1639–1648, 2008; Koniak and Noy-Meir in Ecol Model
220:1148–1158, 2008). These problems are inherently multivariate, though researchers commonly rely on univariate methods,
such as spatial regression models, to address them. In this paper, we introduce a multivariate method—graphical spatial models—that
extends path analysis to incorporate spatial autocorrelation in one or more variables in a directed graph. We show how both
exogenous and endogenous ecological processes as defined by Legendre et al. (Ecography 25:601–615, 2002) and Lichstein et al.
(Ecol Monographs 72:445–463, 2002) can be represented in a graph. Most importantly, we show how to translate graphs representing
these ecological processes into statistically estimable models. We motivate our theoretical results using an example of stream
health data from the Willamette Valley, Oregon. For these data we are interested in the spatial pattern within both riparian
land use and an index of stream health, and whether there is an association between land use and stream health, after accounting
for these spatial patterns. We use a graphical spatial model to address these ecological questions simultaneously. We find
that the health of a stream decreases as the percent of developed land within a 120-m riparian buffer increases; interestingly,
there is only evidence of spatial pattern within land use. 相似文献
995.
We review a range of lack-of-fit tests suitable for assessing the appropriateness of the mean function in dose-response models.
The review encompasses both well-known tests and new tests based on recent developments in statistics, which we have extended
to the dose-response case. We argue that the classical methods are inadequate in certain situations, where the new tests may
be applied. Power comparisons are carried out by means of extensive simulation studies, covering both designs with and without
replicates at small and large sample sizes. Three datasets from dose-response applications illustrate differences and similarities
between the tests. The results suggest that the new tests perform better and exhibit a wider applicability. 相似文献
996.
With growing population and fast urbanization in Australia, it is a challenging task to maintain our water quality. It is
essential to develop an appropriate statistical methodology in analyzing water quality data in order to draw valid conclusions
and hence provide useful advices in water management. This paper is to develop robust rank-based procedures for analyzing
nonnormally distributed data collected over time at different sites. To take account of temporal correlations of the observations
within sites, we consider the optimally combined estimating functions proposed by Wang and Zhu (Biometrika, 93:459–464, 2006) which leads to more efficient parameter estimation. Furthermore, we apply the induced smoothing method to reduce the computational
burden. Smoothing leads to easy calculation of the parameter estimates and their variance-covariance matrix. Analysis of water
quality data from Total Iron and Total Cyanophytes shows the differences between the traditional generalized linear mixed
models and rank regression models. Our analysis also demonstrates the advantages of the rank regression models for analyzing
nonnormal data. 相似文献
997.
José S. Antunes do Carmo Mechteld ten Voorde Maria G. Neves 《Journal of Coastal Conservation》2011,15(4):531-546
Surfing has becoming more and more attractive in the past few decades, constituting nowadays an important source of revenue
for many countries with extensive coastlines. For this purpose and also for environmental reasons, the conventional ways of
protecting a coastline appear to entail some disadvantages. An innovative and interesting way of improving surfing capacities
and contributing to protect a local coastal zone is by means of multifunctional artificial reefs. A multifunctional artificial
reef (MFAR) is a submerged structure that serves several purposes; in particular, it may enhance the surfing possibilities
and the environmental value of the local area. This structure has some promising new aspects, too: first, it provides an unimpaired
visual amenity; second, it offers tourist and economic benefits by improving the surfing conditions; third, it can enhance
the environmental value of the area where it is built, and fourth, if designed properly, the down drift erosion can be minimal.
An appropriate reef design in terms of ‘surfability’, i.e. the possibility to surf a wave, for the Leirosa beach, located
to the south of Figueira da Foz, midway along Portugal’s West Atlantic coast, has been investigated. In order to achieve the
best design several steps were conducted. First, the performance of the Boussinesq-type COULWAVE model is tested with experimental
data. Next, this numerical model is used to define the best values for three design parameters: reef angle; geometry of the
reef (without or with a platform), and horizontal dimensions for the appropriate geometry. A preliminary design was achieved
step by step, making use of the theory and of the state of the art of multifunctional reefs. This reef geometry is used in
the numerical study. In terms of ‘surfability’ and for the conditions of the local coastline of Leirosa, the following values
were found for the main parameters: a reef angle of 66°; a structure height of 3.20 m; a reef geometry composed of a delta
without a platform; a reef submergence of 1.50 m, and a structure seaward slope of 1:10. 相似文献
998.
Flávia Noronha Dutra Ribeiro Jacyra Soares Amauri Pereira de Oliveira 《Environmental Fluid Mechanics》2011,11(6):551-572
This work investigates the capability of an oceanic numerical model dynamic and thermodynamically coupled to a three-dimensional
mesoscale atmospheric numerical model to simulate the basic features of the air–sea interaction in the coastal upwelling area
of Cabo Frio (RJ, Brazil). The upwelling/downwelling regime is an important feature in the oceanic circulation of Cabo Frio
and determines the sustainability of local ecosystems. This regime is predominantly driven by the atmospheric circulation
and is well documented, being suitable to be used as test reference for atmospheric and oceanic coupled and uncoupled models.
The oceanic boundary conditions, coastline shape and coupling effect have been tested. The uncoupled oceanic model forced
by a NE (SW) wind field generates a realistic upwelling (downwelling) phenomenon regardless of the proximity of the lateral
boundary and how realistic is the shape of the coastline. The atmospheric-oceanic coupled model generates an upwelling location
and intensity similar to the uncoupled simulation, but the upwelling is gradually enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation.
It also generates vertical profiles of mixing ratio that compare better to the observations than the uncoupled simulation
and air potential temperature and wind vertical profiles that represent particular features of the atmospheric circulation
at Cabo Frio. 相似文献
999.
Integrated remote sensing and GIS techniques for landslide hazard zonation: a case study Wadi Watier area,South Sinai,Egypt 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Mohamed O. Arnous 《Journal of Coastal Conservation》2011,15(4):477-497
Natural hazard analysis involves mapping and identifying future hazardous zones through the analysis of the controls influencing
hazard initiation and occurrence. One of such natural hazard is the landslide. Landslides are amongst the most costly and
damaging natural hazards especially in mountain regions and are triggered mainly by seismic activity and/or rainfall. The
aim of the present study is to integrate Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to create thematic
layers for assessment and the estimation of landslide hazard zones in and surrounding the Wadi Watier area, South Sinai, Egypt.
Various factors, variables and/or parameters can be derived from thematic layers such as lithology, structural lineaments,
land-cover/land-use, terrain analysis and earthquakes. Intensity risk layers were created by using ERDAS Imagine 9.2, ARC
GIS 9.2 and ARC INFO 7.2.1 software. Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+7) Landsat satellite images were used to discriminate and
extract structural lineaments, lithology and land-use/land-cover variables for the study area. The Digital Elevation Model
(DEM) was generated from digitized topographic maps to produce terrain analysis maps such as; slope, aspect, height elevation,
and 3D. The weighting score rating system based on the relative importance of various causal factors derived from RS data
and other thematic layers was used for landslide hazard zonation (LHZ). Based on these data, a simple algorithm was created
to classify the area into different risk zones. By overlaying all hazard layers a final landslide hazard map was produced.
Using trial and error and statistical methods the weight score rating values have been readjusted. GIS integration with RS
data can greatly facilitate classifying landslide hazard zones into low risk, moderate risk and high risk by using a slicing
operation. Seismic data are integrated with final the LHZ to generate a LHZ scenario map for the future and to draw up an
action plan of mitigation measures to avoid the damage, loss of life and socio-economic impacts in the study area. 相似文献
1000.