2030年将有多热?

<正>一直以来,我们对未来全球环境,特别是气候的所知都来自气候建模,而这部分工作则由IPCC(联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会)和其他气候学家完成,最有代表意义的就是IPCC已发表的成千上万卷以"决策者摘要"为标题的预测报告。这些详尽的调查构成了决策者的决     

城市雨洪资源利用经济价值评价研究

对城市雨洪的合理利用,有助于城市防止内涝、减少灾害、改善水环境,同时能够解决城市水资源短缺,有助于实现水资源可持续利用。文章通过对西安市雨洪资源量的分析,建立了雨洪资源利用的经济效益评价指标,同时,通过分析雨洪资源的利用对国民经济的促进作用,构建了雨洪资源利用的经济价值评价模型,确定了1998～2007年西安市雨洪资源利用对国民经济的贡献量,为下一步建立系统动力学模型分析资源与经济的相互影响奠定了基础。同时,利用该模型测算出2007年西安市雨水利用量约为234万m3,2006年雨洪资源的合理利用推动GDP增长104607.9万元,2007年雨洪资源的合理利用推动GDP增长125787.2万元,但同时尚有76556.61万m3的雨洪资源未得到合理利用。     

MICP技术加固岩石节理的力学机理试验研究∗

微生物诱导碳酸盐沉淀(MICP)是近年国内外兴起的一种微生物岩土技术,即利用微生物新陈代谢的矿化作用诱导产生碳酸盐沉淀,在土体抗液化、堤坝加固等领域得到广泛实验和应用,相较传统边坡加固手段,其绿色环保的特点更符合可持续发展理念。为探究MICP技术在完全分离的岩石节理试件中的胶结效果,通过一种可采用流体分阶段胶结岩石节理面的实验装置,实现MICP胶结液对岩石节理试件的胶结,在不同法向应力下探究其抗剪强度。结果表明:(1)MICP技术对岩石节理具有一定胶结作用;(2)随剪切位移的增加,MICP胶结实验组与无充填对照组的剪切强度维持一致,即二者抗剪残余应力基本相等;(3)胶结养护7 d的抗剪强度可达无充填对照组的85%。     

Characterization of dissolved organic carbon and Humic substances in the well water of the Blackfoot disease area in Taiwan

Since the early 1960s, many investigators have reported that blackfoot disease, a peripheral vascular disease, observed in southwestern Taiwan is due to drinking the higher arsenic concentration in well water. However, recent studies indicated that the relationship with blackfoot disease is not only with arsenic but also humic substances. This paper presents some results concerning the characterization (such as fluorescence, elemental composition, molecular weight and carbon distribution) of humic substances isolated from the Fuhsing well water of the blackfoot disease area. For comparison, the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and humic substances in the normal well water from Chiuying and the Nanwan coastal water were also analyzed. In general, in the well water of the blackfoot disease area, extremely high concentrations of DOC (18.5mg/L) and fulvic acid (7.54mg/L) with high fluorescence intensity (59.1, equivalent to 0.0282uM quinine sulfate solution) and high percentages (over 50%) of low molecular weights of less than 1,000 were obtained compared with those of normal waters. C‐13 Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy showed a high content (37.2%) of aromatic carbon. These higher concentrations of DOC and fulvic acid with the higher content of aromatic carbon in well water might be one of the key factors causing the blackfoot disease in Taiwan.     

衰变子体对241Am2Zr2O7固化体晶胞体积影响的模拟

为探索241 Am核素衰变子体对241Am2Zr2O7烧绿石固化体晶胞体积的影响,根据递次衰变理论计算了241Am衰变子体种类及其含量随时间的变化值,并以Nd2Zr2O7作为Am2Zr2O7的模拟物,La作为241Am衰变子体Np的模拟元素,采用Sol-喷雾热解法合成了(Nd1-xLax)2Zr2O7(0.1≤x≤0.9)系列模拟固化体.利用XRD和SEM研究了该固化体晶胞参数(α、V)随x的变化关系以及其烧结体的微观结构.结果表明,经103 a后,241 Am核素的相对摩尔分数仅为最初的10-5at％,其子体237Np的摩尔分数将达到70at％以上,并在4.3×103a后达到峰值(约99at％).相较其他常规方法,Sol-喷雾热解法能在更低温度、更温和的条件下获得纯相的(Nd1-xLax)2Zr2O7烧绿石样品,且能保证其烧结体晶粒细小(约10 μm),结构致密,残余气孔率可减少到5％.(Nd1-xLax)2Zr2O7模拟固化体的晶胞参数(α、V)均随x的增加而逐渐增大,在相同x条件下,其晶格常数理论值较试验值大0.2％,其晶胞体积在x为0.9时将膨胀约4％.(Nd1-xLax)2Zr2O7模拟固化体晶胞参数变化趋势与(Am1-xNpx)2Zr2O7固化体的理论值基本一致.     

典型碳酸盐岩区耕地土壤剖面重金属形态迁移转化特征及生态风险评价

碳酸盐岩土壤母质区是我国耕地土壤重金属高含量的主要分布区,且耕地重金属迁移转化受到自然过程与人为活动的交互影响.以广西碳酸盐岩母质水田9条土壤剖面为研究对象,在分析测试土壤Cd、As、Zn、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni和Pb含量、pH、Corg含量等土壤性质指标以及Cd、As、Zn和Cr赋存形态基础上,重点探讨了研究区耕地土壤重金属形态垂向分布特征、重金属生态风险以及对比在自然成土过程中和人为活动干扰下重金属迁移转化的影响因素.结果表明,研究区土壤剖面中Cd、As、Zn和Cr存在样本超农用地（水田）污染风险筛选值,Cd和As部分超管制值.土壤剖面Cd各形态均有一定比例分布,且随剖面深度由浅至深,Cd生态风险较高的水溶态、离子交换态比例呈显著下降趋势;土壤剖面As、Zn和Cr各深度段均以残渣态为主,随深度加深,水溶态和离子交换态比例变化不大.风险评价编码法（RAC）和次生相与原生相分布比值法（RSP）评价结果显示,研究区土壤Cd污染风险相对较高,总体上As、Zn和Cr处于无污染或无风险状态.研究区自然发育的土壤,黏土矿物含量和土壤发育程度对Cd迁移活动性的影响较为显著,而受人为活动影响的耕作层中,土壤pH与有机质含量则成为其迁移活动性的主控因素;土壤As的迁移能力主要与土壤有机质、Fe₂O₃含量以及土壤发育程度有关,但在耕作层中,有机质对其控制作用明显增强;土壤中Zn、Cr迁移能力的主控因素均为pH,而在人类活动干扰下,pH对其影响更为强烈.     

Estimating Air Quality in a Traffic Tunnel Using a Forecasting Combination Model

This study performs a field analysis of the diffusion collection rate coefficients of radial geometry passive samplers to measure NO₂ in a Mediterranean coastal area. The study shows that the collection rate coefficients are not constant and depend on certain environmental parameters as well as on the levels of some co-pollutants. A mathematical model, which explains the variation of the collection rate coefficient, has been established.     

长江源区草地植被退化对土壤持水能力影响

选择长江源区的格尔木市唐古拉山镇作为研究区,通过野外实地采样与室内测试分析相结合,在分析草地植被不同退化阶段和不同土层深度下土壤持水能力特征的基础上,探讨了草地植被退化对土壤持水能力影响。结果表明：（1）在相同草地植被退化阶段,毛管持水量、饱和含水量和田间持水量随土层深度变化的特征基本一致;在相同土层深度上,毛管持水量、饱和含水量和田间持水量随草地植被退化的特征也大体相同。（2）在相同草地植被退化阶段,土壤持水量总体上随土层深度增加而减少,特别是在未退化阶段,10~20 cm土层的毛管持水量、饱和含水量和田间持水量比0~10 cm土层分别减少了12.38%、33.73%和7.64%。（3）在相同土层深度上,土壤持水量总体上随草地植被退化而减少,特别是在0~10 cm土层,轻度退化阶段的毛管持水量、饱和含水量和田间持水量比未退化阶段分别减少了41.52%、59.95%和27.03%。（4）土壤持水量与土壤容重、总碳、有机质和总氮显著相关,它在草地植被不同退化阶段和不同土层深度下的变化可能与地表覆被状况、植物根系数量和分布特征所引起的土壤容重、有机质等变化有关。研究可深化对草地植被退化与土壤持水能力相互关系的理解和认识,并为长江源区生态环境和水资源状况研究提供参考依据。 关键词： 土壤持水能力;草地植被退化;长江源区;影响     

基于复合LSTM模型的PM2.5浓度预测

在对淄博市19个空气质量监测站点监测数据进行分析后,提出了一种基于机器学习的复合模型——灰色关联度分析(GRA)-改进的完备总体经验模态分解(ICEEMD)-长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型。通过分析淄博市2019年大气污染物和气象数据,选用LSTM模型预测PM_2.5浓度。由于传统单一模块机器学习模型具有训练时间较长和预测精度较低的问题,提出了复合LSTM模型。该模型由3部分组成：GRA,用于PM_2.5浓度影响因素变量筛选;ICEEMD,用于PM_2.5分解、分量筛选和原始大气污染物及气象数据处理;LSTM,用于PM_2.5浓度预测。预测结果表明：淄博市中部丘陵地带PM_2.5浓度高于南部山区和北部平原,东部高于西部;淄博市逐月PM_2.5浓度呈“U”形分布,1月最高,8月最低;淄博市PM_2.5浓度受PM₁₀和CO影响较大,受湿度和温度影响较小。对比单一LSTM模型和GRA-LSTM模型,GRA-ICEEMD-LSTM模型...     

Concentration and composition variations of metals in the outdoor PM10 of elementary schools during river dust episodes

Aeolian river dust can seriously affect the air quality in central Taiwan. The main purpose of this study was to assess the concentration variations of PM₁₀ and metals at different elementary schools during river dust episodes. River dust samples were taken from eight sites in the main bare soil areas of the Choshui River. PM₁₀ aerosols from four elementary schools in Yulin County were collected by means of high-volume samplers. Fifteen elements (Fe, Al, Ca, Mg, Mn, Zn, Ti, Ni, V, Cr, As, Pb, Cu, Co, and Cd) in the river dust and PM₁₀ were analyzed in this study. The coefficients of divergence (CDs) were obtained by comparing the metal compositions in PM₁₀ aerosols at the four schools on the sampling days with the mean metal contents in the river soil samples as reference. The CD values showed that metal compositions in the aerosols at high-exposure sites during river dust episodes were similar to those compositions in the river dust. The concentrations of PM₁₀ at the high-exposure schools during river dust episodes were much higher than those during non-river-dust episodes. This study also indicated that at the high-exposure sites, both the PM₁₀ and metal concentrations were higher than at the low-exposure and control sites, not only during the river dust episodes, but also after the river dust episodes. The concentrations of toxic metals (Ni, Cr, As, and Cd) at the high-exposure sites were about 11.3 times higher during the river dust episodes (189 ng/m³) than during non-river-dust episodes (16.7 ng/m³) and about 8.9 times higher during the same periods at the control site (21.3 ng/m³).